Rapid drop in the reproduction number during the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo

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Abstract

In 2014, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) experienced an outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) with 69 reported cases. I fitted an EVD transmission model to data of this outbreak and estimated the basic reproduction number R 0 = 5.2 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.0-6.7). The model suggests that the net reproduction number R t fell below unity 28 days (95% CI: 25-34 days) after the onset of symptoms in the index case. This illustrates that early outbreak detection and rapid implementation of control interventions are crucial for preventing wider spread of EVD in rural areas.

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last seen: 2026-05-19T01:45:01.086888+00:00
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License: CC-BY-4.0