Continental-scale climatic gradients of pathogenic microbial taxa in birds and bats

Abstract Climate change may alter the threat of zoonotic and wildlife diseases, by changing environmental suitability for hosts, ectoparasites, and pathogens. However, the connections between climatic variables and diseases remains equivocal. We compiled a systematic database for the prevalence of 121 pathogenic microbial taxa in birds and bats, including 11,801 observations from over 450,000 individuals across Europe and surrounding regions. Using a space-for-time-substitution approach, we modelled the potential connection of climatic variables on the prevalence of different pathogenic taxa. The prevalence of influenza A virus and several bacterial taxa in birds (376 species) and bats (39 species) positively correlated with temperature. Rainfall showed a positive correlation with the prevalence of viral taxa but the directions of significant correlations varied between bacterial taxa. The results suggest that changes in temperature and precipitation may potentially alter the threat of bird- and bat-associated pathogenic microbial taxa to the wild-life, domesticated animals and humans.