Evaluating Climate Change, Variabilities and Trends in Borkena Catchment, Awash Sub-Basin, Ethiopia

Evaluating Climate Change, Variabilities and Trends in Borkena Catchment, Awash Sub-Basin, Ethiopia | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Evaluating Climate Change, Variabilities and Trends in Borkena Catchment, Awash Sub-Basin, Ethiopia Kassaw Muluye Chanie, Asfaw Kebede Kassa This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7274295/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Climate change is a change in statistical descriptions of weather conditions, variations, averages, and extremes at a particular location caused by human activity. This study was conducted to analyze rainfall and temperature trends and variability in the upper awash sub-basin. Marksim software was used to download future climatic parameters. INSTAT Plus software was used to summarize the daily data into annual, and monthly totals. The rainfall and temperature indices were analyzed and trends were evaluated using Sen’s slope estimator and Mann–Kendall trend test. The baseline maximum temperatures in the study area had been increasing significantly, ranging from 0.1 − 1.6°C. The mean annual maximum temperature is likely to increase from − 2 to 3.1°C in 2040 and − 1.5 to 4°C in 2060 while the mean annual minimum temperature may change by a range of − 2.4 to 1.8°C in 2040 and − 1.9 to 2.9°C in 2060 as compared to the baseline. The mean annual Belg rainfall varied from 187.9 mm (CV 44.5%) in Kabie to 328.4 mm (CV 37.9%) in Haik respectively. The annual rainfall in the future predicted by GCMs varies by − 10.3 to 38.2% in 2040 and − 12.1 to 29.6% in 2060 respectively. The study area is susceptible to the influences of climate variability. Therefore, the precipitation and temperature variability of the area should be considered in climate change adaptation strategies. Borkena Climate Change Marksim Rainfall Rcp Temperature Trend Variability Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7274295","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":495605754,"identity":"0d866053-1773-4c2a-a7a9-f86728f657f3","order_by":0,"name":"Kassaw Muluye Chanie","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA5ElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACCSA+wNjAZsfP3gBkGlgQrYUvWbLnAEiLBHFaGBgb5Bg33EiA8/EDyfbjDw/+3GHGzHDz+dUNPwokGPjbuxPwapHmyTE4zHsmjY9xdk7ZzR6gwyTOnN2AV4scQw7DYca2Y8zM0jlpN3iAWgwkcglo4X/+4ODPtv+MbZJn0m7+IUaLtESCwQHeNjbGHgn2Y7eJskVyxhugX9rYkiV4cthuyxhI8BD0i8T59Mcff7ax2dkfP/7s5ps/NnL87b34tSABHgMwSaxyEGB/QIrqUTAKRsEoGEEAAIrnSK2rWWYfAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Woldia University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Kassaw","middleName":"Muluye","lastName":"Chanie","suffix":""},{"id":495605757,"identity":"d7119f4d-4252-469e-b0fc-efdbdf6f901c","order_by":1,"name":"Asfaw Kebede Kassa","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Haramaya University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Asfaw","middleName":"Kebede","lastName":"Kassa","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-08-01 21:08:07","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7274295/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7274295/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":88749744,"identity":"39a543c2-a757-4614-b110-b99597fccfb4","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-08-11 05:39:55","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":931856,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"RevisedManuscriptclimateresearch.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7274295/v1_covered_3b7c56fa-bd41-4ace-8caf-c66ac73396a3.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Evaluating Climate Change, Variabilities and Trends in Borkena Catchment, Awash Sub-Basin, Ethiopia","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Borkena Climate Change, Marksim, Rainfall, Rcp, Temperature, Trend, Variability","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7274295/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7274295/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eClimate change is a change in statistical descriptions of weather conditions, variations, averages, and extremes at a particular location caused by human activity. This study was conducted to analyze rainfall and temperature trends and variability in the upper awash sub-basin. Marksim software was used to download future climatic parameters. INSTAT Plus software was used to summarize the daily data into annual, and monthly totals. The rainfall and temperature indices were analyzed and trends were evaluated using Sen\u0026rsquo;s slope estimator and Mann\u0026ndash;Kendall trend test. The baseline maximum temperatures in the study area had been increasing significantly, ranging from 0.1 \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;1.6\u0026deg;C. The mean annual maximum temperature is likely to increase from \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;2 to 3.1\u0026deg;C in 2040 and \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;1.5 to 4\u0026deg;C in 2060 while the mean annual minimum temperature may change by a range of \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;2.4 to 1.8\u0026deg;C in 2040 and \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;1.9 to 2.9\u0026deg;C in 2060 as compared to the baseline. The mean annual Belg rainfall varied from 187.9 mm (CV 44.5%) in Kabie to 328.4 mm (CV 37.9%) in Haik respectively. The annual rainfall in the future predicted by GCMs varies by \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;10.3 to 38.2% in 2040 and \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;12.1 to 29.6% in 2060 respectively. The study area is susceptible to the influences of climate variability. Therefore, the precipitation and temperature variability of the area should be considered in climate change adaptation strategies.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Evaluating Climate Change, Variabilities and Trends in Borkena Catchment, Awash Sub-Basin, Ethiopia","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-08-05 10:14:22","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7274295/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"b65f13e3-4332-4ee8-8c76-2639cdeeef45","owner":[],"postedDate":"August 5th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-08-11T05:23:47+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-08-05 10:14:22","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7274295","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7274295","identity":"rs-7274295","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}