Optimal Path for Orbital Debris

Optimal Path for Orbital Debris | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Optimal Path for Orbital Debris Anelí Bongers, José L. Torres This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8861014/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This paper introduces the Dynamic Integrated Space-Economy (DISE-2024) model, a general equilibrium integrated assessment model (IAM) designed to analyze the long-run optimal dynamics of orbital debris. The model combines an optimal economic growth framework with a physical representation of the Earth’s orbital environment, capturing the dynamics of orbital debris accumulation, collision risks, and the resulting destruction of space-based capital assets. The economic module determines optimal consumption paths and investment decisions across two capital stocks: terrestrial capital and space capital (i.e., satellites). The physical module endogenously models the generation of orbital debris, accounting for launch activities, in-orbit breakups, and collisions. The model is simulated over a 200-year horizon for a centralized economy, allowing the computation of optimal trajectories for key variables and the quantification of the output costs associated with orbital debris accumulation. (JEL Classification: D62; E21; E22; Q53; Q58). Outer space Orbital debris Satellites Integrated assessment model Probability of collision Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files 25DISEAppendix.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8861014","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":627015180,"identity":"ed12c1f4-85a6-44c8-bf47-f985566312c6","order_by":0,"name":"Anelí Bongers","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAuklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACCSjNT7oWyQaStRgcIFYH/+zmYw+/VNyzN76RnfiBoaKOCEvuHEs3ljlTnLjtRu5mCYYzh4mw5kaOmbRkW0KC2Y3cDRKMbUQ4Tx6s5V+CvfGM3M0/GP8R4TADoBbJjw0JjBskcrdJMDYwE9ZieOdYmjTDsYTEGWfebrNIOEaEX+RuNx+T/FGTYM/fnrv5xocaIhwGAsw8MFYCcRoYGBh/EKtyFIyCUTAKRiYAAPD5OxVWJz2dAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"University of Málaga","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Anelí","middleName":"","lastName":"Bongers","suffix":""},{"id":627015181,"identity":"9994da1c-06e2-46ba-9b27-190d31ff0b04","order_by":1,"name":"José L. Torres","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Málaga","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"José","middleName":"L.","lastName":"Torres","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-02-12 10:39:53","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8861014/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8861014/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":108006210,"identity":"8ceb0ca0-ac60-4eb4-b53b-55fa0eecb964","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-28 12:54:35","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":580725,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"DISE.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8861014/v1_covered_0cf86efa-fd3b-48da-9ade-4d38a23f8ec8.pdf"},{"id":107911730,"identity":"3d5dc4ee-9ec7-4019-bec0-a7ab6449d0a9","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-27 13:30:49","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":431608,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"25DISEAppendix.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8861014/v1/fef0c166dd6220bf692ee9e7.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Optimal Path for Orbital Debris","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Outer space, Orbital debris, Satellites, Integrated assessment model, Probability of collision","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8861014/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8861014/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis paper introduces the Dynamic Integrated Space-Economy (DISE-2024) model, a general equilibrium integrated assessment model (IAM) designed to analyze the long-run optimal dynamics of orbital debris. The model combines an optimal economic growth framework with a physical representation of the Earth\u0026rsquo;s orbital environment, capturing the dynamics of orbital debris accumulation, collision risks, and the resulting destruction of space-based capital assets. The economic module determines optimal consumption paths and investment decisions across two capital stocks: terrestrial capital and space capital (i.e., satellites). The physical module endogenously models the generation of orbital debris, accounting for launch activities, in-orbit breakups, and collisions. The model is simulated over a 200-year horizon for a centralized economy, allowing the computation of optimal trajectories for key variables and the quantification of the output costs associated with orbital debris accumulation. (JEL Classification: D62; E21; E22; Q53; Q58). \u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Optimal Path for Orbital Debris","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-04-27 13:30:45","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8861014/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"72e4df1d-f15d-493b-b2bc-122bf8af2fec","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 27th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-05-19T01:59:40+00:00","index":12,"fulltext":""}],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-04-27T13:30:45+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-04-27 13:30:45","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8861014","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8861014","identity":"rs-8861014","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}