Diversification Declines in Major Dinosaurian Clades are not Because of Edge Effects or Incomplete Fossil Sampling

Abstract Signatures of catastrophic mass extinctions have long been reported to be obscured by the edge effect where taxonomic diversity appears to decline gradually. Similarly, models of diversification based on splitting of branches on a phylogenetic tree might also be affected by undersampling of divergences towards the edge. The implication is that long-term declines in diversification recovered from such models – e.g., in dinosaurs – may be artefacts of unsampled divergences. However, this effect has never been explicitly tested in a phylogenetic model framework – i.e., whether phylogenetic nodes (speciation events) close to the edge are under-sampled and if diversification declines are artefacts of such under-sampling. Here, we test whether dinosaur species in temporal proximity to the Cretaceous-Paleogene mass extinction event are associated with fewer nodes than expected, and whether this under-sampling can account for the diversification decline. We find on the contrary that edge taxa have higher numbers of nodes than expected and that accounting for this offset does not affect the diversification decline. We demonstrate that the observed diversification declines in the three major dinosaurian clades in the Late Cretaceous are not artefacts of the edge effect.