Balancing Climate Mitigation and Adaptation: A Dynamic Economic Assessment of Blue Carbon in the Venice Lagoon

Balancing Climate Mitigation and Adaptation: A Dynamic Economic Assessment of Blue Carbon in the Venice Lagoon | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Balancing Climate Mitigation and Adaptation: A Dynamic Economic Assessment of Blue Carbon in the Venice Lagoon Sebastian Raimondo, Federico Cornacchia, Perla Rivadeneyra Garcìa, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6413961/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Climate adaptation measures are often perceived as an implicit concession to the limitations of mitigation efforts. Yet, adaptation and mitigation interact in ways that can either reinforce or undermine each other. In this study, we investigate the trade-offs between climate change adaptation and mitigation by assessing the impact of flood protection measures on blue carbon sequestration in the Venice Lagoon. Using a system dynamics framework, we integrate management and hydrodynamic processes and economic valuation within a simplified yet comprehensive model to evaluate how the operation of the MoSE flood barrier influences salt marsh carbon storage under different management and climate scenarios. Our findings reveal that, while MoSE effectively reduces immediate flood risk, its increasingly frequent closures could significantly diminish salt marsh carbon storage capacity — by over 40% within 2100 under a pessimistic sea level rise scenario (RCP 8.5) — thus reducing the economic value of blue carbon stocks by approximately €120 million compared to more flexible management scenarios. These insights support the case for adaptive MoSE operational strategies capable of reconciling immediate flood protection with long-term economic and environmental sustainability. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Environmental economics Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change adaptation Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change mitigation Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SUPPLEMENTARYINFORMATIONBalancingClimateMitigationandAdaptationADynamicEconomicAssessmentofBlueCarbonintheVeniceLagoon.pdf Supplementary Information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6413961","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":447012717,"identity":"c6ddf25b-fc87-46de-97a5-8a6022cd5ee7","order_by":0,"name":"Sebastian Raimondo","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABD0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFACHhAhAWEngIgDzAc+gGg2vFoSULSwJc4Aa8GphwemFAYO8BiCteCyRr699+DHnz8s5M0ZeB9+eJhjk8d3vOdjw4eKbQx88g1YtRicOZcszZMgYbizgd1YInFbWrHkmbMbG2ecuY3TYQYSOQbSQL8wbjjAxgDUcjhxw43c7Y9523BrkZ//xvjnjwQJe6AW5h8QLTkPm//+w62F4QaPmQTQYYlALWxQW3IYmxkb8DjsTF6aNU+aRPKGw2xsFkC/JM48c8ywsefYbR42tgQcIXb28M0fNnW2G463Md/8uc0mse9488OGHzW35eSbD+BwGQwwo/F5CKgfBaNgFIyCUYAHAAAz5WL1N6umKQAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Sebastian","middleName":"","lastName":"Raimondo","suffix":""},{"id":447012718,"identity":"31e7bdda-b7c2-4b0a-a079-d198cd5dfb0c","order_by":1,"name":"Federico Cornacchia","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Federico","middleName":"","lastName":"Cornacchia","suffix":""},{"id":447012719,"identity":"11505029-9c5c-4a0b-b7c4-3a4664411bcd","order_by":2,"name":"Perla Rivadeneyra Garcìa","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Perla","middleName":"Rivadeneyra","lastName":"Garcìa","suffix":""},{"id":447012720,"identity":"52b6ab2a-de13-459d-9796-4cb784c2a349","order_by":3,"name":"Carlo Giupponi","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Carlo","middleName":"","lastName":"Giupponi","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-04-09 17:20:32","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6413961/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6413961/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":86871440,"identity":"0cc767c2-9e56-4148-85b3-0835a18a192d","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-07-16 14:29:27","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1858180,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"MANUSCRIPTBalancingClimateMitigationandAdaptationADynamicEconomicAssessmentofBlueCarbonintheVeniceLagoon.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6413961/v1_covered_3ad68394-ea2a-45d2-be5c-34a3e1842507.pdf"},{"id":81270982,"identity":"bf8982a6-85f9-4fe7-953e-d486580e78f4","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-24 08:27:00","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":1284070,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Supplementary Information","description":"","filename":"SUPPLEMENTARYINFORMATIONBalancingClimateMitigationandAdaptationADynamicEconomicAssessmentofBlueCarbonintheVeniceLagoon.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6413961/v1/3d0cffdc9859160edba3eea4.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Balancing Climate Mitigation and Adaptation: A Dynamic Economic Assessment of Blue Carbon in the Venice Lagoon","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6413961/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6413961/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Climate adaptation measures are often perceived as an implicit concession to the limitations of mitigation efforts. 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