Effects of Multi-Scale Climate Change on The Distribution of Invasive Insect Populations and The Development of Ecological Services: A Case Study of Zeugodacus Cucurbitae (Coquillett)

Abstract In order to clarify the effects of multi-scale climate change on the population distribution and ecological service function of Z.cucurbitae, this paper analyzed its suitable distribution area Z.cucurbitae in a wide scale using the MaxEnt ecological model. Z.cucurbitae were exposed under short-term high temperatures of 33°C, 37°C, 41°C and 45°C for 1h, which were set based on recorded high temperatures in the field. The effects of these temperatures on development and reproduction of Z.cucurbitae in successive three generations were evaluated. The results showed that under current climatic conditions, the suitable regions of Z.cucurbitae included most of South America, southeast North America, sub-Saharan Africa, part of Oceania and southern coastal areas of Asia. Under two carbon emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), the suitable area of Z.cucurbitae will expand compared to that under current environment and this expansion will generally be northwards. Short-term high temperature was not conducive to the development and reproduction of Z.cucurbitae. The F1 Z.cucurbitae exposed under 45°C for 1h stimulated its oviposition, and the offspring can still continue the population. When the offspring were continuously exposed to short-term high temperature until the F3, they could not oviposit. In the context of climate change, both large-scale and small-scale changes will affect the distribution and population breeding of Z.cucurbitae, which will lead to local sudden outbreak or migration disaster. Therefore, a broad-scale distribution analysis of all populations as a whole will result in a narrow ecological niche and may fail to predict the effects of some local small-scale habitat changes.