Triglyceride-Glucose Index as Predictor for Hypertension, CHD and STROKE Risk among non-Diabetic patients: A NHANES Cross-Sectional Study 2001-2020

Abstract Background This study aimed to investigate the association between the TyG index and the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD), congestive heart failure (CHF), heart attack (HA), stroke, and hypertension (HTN) among non-diabetic patients in the USA. Methods In this retrospective, cross-sectional study, we used data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from 2001 to 2020. Our study sample comprised non-diabetic NHANES participants aged ≥ 18 years. To determine the sensitivity and specificity of the triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index for predicting the onset of CHD, CHF, HA, stroke, and HTN, we conducted receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Results A total of 10,937 non-diabetic individuals participated in our study. Individuals with a TyG index greater than 8.96 displayed noteworthy elevations in various parameters, including BMI, systolic/diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, LDL, and Apo-B levels (p < 0.001). Additionally, 360, 359, 385, 237, and 3254 patients were found to have CHD, stroke, HA, CHF, and HTN, respectively. We evaluated the predictive ability of the TyG index for each endpoint, obtaining the following area under the curve (AUC) values: 54.75% for CHF (95% CI: 0.542–0.614), 52.32% for stroke (95% CI: 0.529–0.584), 55.67% for HA (95% CI: 0.595–0.646), 55.59% for HTN (95% CI: 0.574–0.597), and 50.31% for CHD (95% CI: 0.592–0.646) (p < 0.05). Conclusion The TyG index showed a strong correlation with cardiovascular risk factors in nondiabetic individuals, suggesting its potential as a predictor of cardiovascular risk. However, its use as a standalone screening tool is limited because of its low predictive value.