Food Price Volatility and its Transmission Effects on Socioeconomic Outcomes in Ethiopia

Food Price Volatility and its Transmission Effects on Socioeconomic Outcomes in Ethiopia | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Food Price Volatility and its Transmission Effects on Socioeconomic Outcomes in Ethiopia Dawud Seid This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7365222/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study examines the dynamics and transmission mechanisms of food price volatility in Ethiopia and its effects on key socioeconomic outcomes, including poverty rates, unemployment, and real per capita gross domestic product. The research a7nalyzes both short-term and long-term relationships using data from 1985 to 2023. Findings indicate that food price volatility, driven by global and local factors such as seasonality, macroeconomic instability, and external shocks, disproportionately affects low-income households and small-scale farmers. These fluctuations lead to increased food insecurity, malnutrition, and hindered economic growth, while also exacerbating poverty and unemployment. The study highlights the need for comprehensive policy interventions and improved social safety nets to mitigate the adverse impacts of food price volatility on vulnerable populations in Ethiopia. Agricultural Economics & Policy Food price volatility poverty unemployment food security transmission mechanisms socioeconomic outcomes macroeconomic instability policy interventions Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7365222","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":499980695,"identity":"145822ae-f922-4eb9-8f5a-f310247d5d75","order_by":0,"name":"Dawud Seid","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA50lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDCCA0DMA0KH2Q8+ALH5iNdynCfZAMRmI1YLA8N5BjMJEE1QC9/xM2YSb/7YyPAdZkir/JpjJ8PGwPzw0Q08WiTP5JhJzm1L45E8zHjstuy2ZKDD2IyNc/BoMTiQu02at+EwjwHQltuS25iBWnjYpPFqOf92mzTPn/8gLWbFktvqidByA2gLD9sBsBbGj9sOE9YieeP9Z8u5bclAv/AkSzNuO87DxkzAL3zn0xJvvPljZ893/vjBjz+3Vdvzszc/fIxPCwpgBkcQM7HKQYDxBymqR8EoGAWjYMQAAH6tR5SitJUDAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Dawud","middleName":"","lastName":"Seid","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-08-13 12:58:53","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":true,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":true,"humanSubjectConsent":true,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7365222/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7365222/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":89075309,"identity":"15da54e5-b48f-41fe-8ef4-66180bd221fb","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-08-14 12:04:25","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":444915,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"DawudthesisfirstDraftforPublication1.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7365222/v1_covered_874a90e1-04fd-4cfb-ac8e-f7f71057c72e.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eFood Price Volatility and its Transmission Effects on Socioeconomic Outcomes in Ethiopia\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":true,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Food price volatility, poverty, unemployment, food security, transmission mechanisms, socioeconomic outcomes, macroeconomic instability, policy interventions","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7365222/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7365222/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eThis study examines the dynamics and transmission mechanisms of food price volatility in Ethiopia and its effects on key socioeconomic outcomes, including poverty rates, unemployment, and real per capita gross domestic product. 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