Effect of future climatic variation on vegetation stability in Central Asia

Effect of future climatic variation on vegetation stability in Central Asia | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 9 January 2025 V1 Latest version Share on Effect of future climatic variation on vegetation stability in Central Asia Authors : Dingjin Chu , Li Zhang 0000-0002-0423-5494 [email protected] , Honglin He 0000-0001-9902-4958 , Xiaoli Ren , and Han Wu 0009-0008-6254-4309 Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.173641845.57572034/v1 253 views 119 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract Vegetation stability is vulnerable to climate change in Central Asia. However, how future climate variations and extremes influence the vegetation stability in Central Asia has not been well understood. In this study, we investigated future vegetation stability quantified by the variability of vegetation productivity and attribution to climatic variation and negative extremes in Central Asia under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios (SSPs) during 2021-2100, using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 simulations. We found that the interannual variability (IAV) of Net Primary Production (NPP) would be larger under higher anthropogenic emissions scenarios. The standard deviation of NPP IAV increases from 64.55 Tg C yr -1 under SSP1-2.6 to 78.01 Tg C y r -1 under SSP5-8.5. The north of Central Asia accounts for the largest contribution (48% -53%) to Central Asia’s NPP IAV under SSP1-2.6 to SSP5-8.5. Compared to temperature IAV, precipitation IAV exerts a larger contribution to NPP IAV in Central Asia, due to the higher sensitivity of NPP IAV to precipitation IAV. Dry conditions are the main climate extremes causing negative NPP extremes in Central Asia, especially in the north and southeast of Central Asia. Our findings identify the northern and southeastern regions with higher instability posed by future climate changes in Central Asia, and provide scientific guidance for regional water management to mitigate ecosystem instability. Supplementary Material File (manuscript_zl.docx) Download 1.12 MB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 09 January 2025 Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License. Keywords comparative ecosystem ecosystem ecology ecosystem function terrestrial Authors Affiliations Dingjin Chu Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research CAS View all articles by this author Li Zhang 0000-0002-0423-5494 [email protected] Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research CAS View all articles by this author Honglin He 0000-0001-9902-4958 Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research CAS View all articles by this author Xiaoli Ren Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research CAS View all articles by this author Han Wu 0009-0008-6254-4309 Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research CAS View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 253 views 119 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Dingjin Chu, Li Zhang, Honglin He, et al. Effect of future climatic variation on vegetation stability in Central Asia. Authorea . 09 January 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.173641845.57572034/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu . Format Please select one from the list RIS (ProCite, Reference Manager) EndNote BibTex Medlars RefWorks Direct import Tips for downloading citations document.getElementById('citMgrHelpLink').addEventListener('click', function() { popupHelp(this.href); return false; }); $(".js__slcInclude").on("change", function(e){ if ($(this).val() == 'refworks') $('#direct').prop("checked", false); $('#direct').prop("disabled", ($(this).val() == 'refworks')); }); View Options View options PDF View PDF Figures Tables Media Share Share Share article link Copy Link Copied! Copying failed. 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