Emergence of climate change signals in marine ecosystem thermal niches

Emergence of climate change signals in marine ecosystem thermal niches | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Emergence of climate change signals in marine ecosystem thermal niches Yeray Santana-Falcón, Roland Seferian This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-1060043/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 29 Sep, 2022 Read the published version in Nature Climate Change → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Temperature is one of the most important drivers of global ocean patterns of biodiversity 1,2,3 shaping thermal niches through thresholds of physiological thermal tolerance 4 ⁠. Because of anthropogenic global warming, lower and upper thermal niche bounds are predicted to change affecting the future distribution of marine species 5,6⁠ . Current working hypotheses suggest an expansion of ectotherms toward their poleward boundaries 7,8 . Nonetheless, the knowledge of the timing and extent of these rearrangements across latitude and depth remains limited. Here, using daily data across the water column from both Ocean Sites network observations and novel Earth System Model, we track the emergence of thermal niches whose lower bound is warmer than their current upper bound, potentially disrupting marine habitats. We show that these developments will emerge by ~2030 in subsurface waters (~50 – 1000 m) if anthropogenic emissions continue to rise, whereas they delay several decades if emissions are substantially reduced. By 2100, thermal niches will be warmer than current counterparts. However, we further show that depending on the vertical level, concomitant changes in both boundaries will result in wider or narrower thermal niches. These results suggest that the redistribution of marine species might differ across depth, shedding light upon a much more complex picture of the impact of climate change on marine habitats. Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SantanaFalconSeferianSupplMat.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 29 Sep, 2022 Read the published version in Nature Climate Change → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-1060043","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":68763200,"identity":"5a7b3ac7-a348-4edb-b607-d41aff1ab869","order_by":0,"name":"Yeray 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Because of anthropogenic global warming, lower and upper thermal niche bounds are predicted to change affecting the future distribution of marine species\u003csup\u003e5,6⁠\u003c/sup\u003e. Current working hypotheses suggest an expansion of ectotherms toward their poleward boundaries\u003csup\u003e7,8\u003c/sup\u003e. Nonetheless, the knowledge of the timing and extent of these rearrangements across latitude and depth remains limited. Here, using daily data across the water column from both Ocean Sites network observations and novel Earth System Model, we track the emergence of thermal niches whose lower bound is warmer than their current upper bound, potentially disrupting marine habitats. We show that these developments will emerge by ~2030 in subsurface waters (~50 – 1000 m) if anthropogenic emissions continue to rise, whereas they delay several decades if emissions are substantially reduced. By 2100, thermal niches will be warmer than current counterparts. 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