Six Birds for Neutrino Mass: Lens-Swap Stability and Packaging Audits

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Abstract We investigate a lens-swap instability in cosmological neutrino-mass inference highlighted by arXiv:2601.16277. Replacing the SPT-3G 2018 TT/TE/EE likelihood with SPT-3G D1, while keeping the rest of the setup matched, can tighten constraints on the summed neutrino mass (sum m_nu). We treat this as a packaging-stability problem and run directional cross-lens audits, localization by spectrum and multipole, and a common-staging support control. The mismatch is large and asymmetric, remains after profiling, and is concentrated in high-l TT structure within overlap. Staging changes are small, so support differences alone do not explain the effect. Under DESI DR2 BAO, the D1 swap tightens the 95 percent upper bound on sum m_nu in both tested baselines, with a larger shift in SPT-only plus DESI and a smaller shift in the Planck-subset baseline plus DESI. We present an audit-first, reproducible diagnosis of likelihood disagreement, not a claim of pipeline root cause or a definitive sum m_nu value.
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Six Birds for Neutrino Mass: Lens-Swap Stability and Packaging Audits | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Six Birds for Neutrino Mass: Lens-Swap Stability and Packaging Audits Ioannis Tsiokos This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9009357/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract We investigate a lens-swap instability in cosmological neutrino-mass inference highlighted by arXiv:2601.16277. Replacing the SPT-3G 2018 TT/TE/EE likelihood with SPT-3G D1, while keeping the rest of the setup matched, can tighten constraints on the summed neutrino mass (sum m_nu). We treat this as a packaging-stability problem and run directional cross-lens audits, localization by spectrum and multipole, and a common-staging support control. The mismatch is large and asymmetric, remains after profiling, and is concentrated in high-l TT structure within overlap. Staging changes are small, so support differences alone do not explain the effect. Under DESI DR2 BAO, the D1 swap tightens the 95 percent upper bound on sum m_nu in both tested baselines, with a larger shift in SPT-only plus DESI and a smaller shift in the Planck-subset baseline plus DESI. We present an audit-first, reproducible diagnosis of likelihood disagreement, not a claim of pipeline root cause or a definitive sum m_nu value. Astronomy Astrophysics and Cosmology Computational Physics neutrino mass cosmological bounds SPT-3G lens stability cross-lens audit packaging mismatch Six Birds framework Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare potential competing interests as follows: I. Tsiokos is affiliated with Automorph Inc. No external funding was received for this research, and Automorph Inc. had no role in the study design, data collection, analysis, interpretation, or decision to submit. The author has no other financial or non-financial competing interests to declare. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. 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