Weather-driven US milk yield losses and economic damages revealed by 9 million cows

Weather-driven US milk yield losses and economic damages revealed by 9 million cows | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Weather-driven US milk yield losses and economic damages revealed by 9 million cows Eukyoung Choi, Frances Davenport, Ziyi Lin, Ariel Ortiz-Bobea, and 3 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8227805/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Climate change threatens dairy production, yet a full understanding of these risks remains limited by a combination of coarse yield data and simplified models. Here we combine 155 million test-day milk records from 9 million US cows from 2000–2024 with a causality aware machine learning framework to quantify yield responses to temperature, radiation, humidity, and wind. We find that nighttime heat is the dominant driver of milk yield declines. Nationwide, heat stress reduced yield per cow per test-day by –2.5%, compared with –1.0% from cold stress. Yield reductions were most intensive from late-summer heat and springtime cold, which were –4.3% and –1.5%, respectively. Combined heat and cold stress resulted in an annual economic loss of $871 million, which corresponds to 2.3% of national milk revenue. Our study establishes the nonlinear nature of yield sensitivity to multiple weather stressors and reveals opportunities to enhance yields in US dairy systems. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences/Environmental impact Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology/Environmental economics Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences/Environmental impact Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology/Environmental economics Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files dairyMLSIsubmitted.pdf Supplementary Information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8227805","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":575373089,"identity":"7908b46e-8756-4bcc-8128-02089a1c26c4","order_by":0,"name":"Eukyoung 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