Observing stratospheric residence time from opposing transport timescales

Observing stratospheric residence time from opposing transport timescales | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Observing stratospheric residence time from opposing transport timescales Johannes Pletzer, Volker Grewe, Hella Garny, Matthias Nützel, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9087641/v2 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Abstract While the mean age-of-air, the time from entry into the stratosphere to any interior point, can be derived from trace gas observations, the mean residence time, the time from an interior point to its exit, is constrained only through rare events such as volcanic eruptions. Here we show that age-of-air and residence time are not independent but obey a compensation rule: their opposing latitudinal gradients cancel to produce near-uniform mean total transit times at each altitude. This uniformity reveals a previously unrecognised constraint within the Brewer-Dobson circulation, where rapid tropical ascent is necessarily balanced by prolonged interior residence, and vice versa. Exploiting this constraint, we infer global residence time fields directly from age-of-air observations and reproduce the observed residence time of the 2022 Hunga Tonga water vapour plume within published uncertainty ranges. Our framework transforms age-of-air, routinely measured by existing satellite networks, into a continuous observational constraint on stratospheric residence time. This opens a path to monitor whether the acceleration of stratospheric circulation under climate change shortens or prolongs the persistence of high-altitude emissions. Atmospheric Sciences Geophysics Stratosphere Air Transport Residence Time Climate High-Altitude Injections Space Debris Solar Radiation Modification Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9087641","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":621096973,"identity":"aac34414-ce1f-4e7f-9af9-d2f8530079d4","order_by":0,"name":"Johannes 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