Enhanced growth – more than reforestation – counteracted biomass carbon emissions (1990-2020)

Enhanced growth – more than reforestation – counteracted biomass carbon emissions (1990-2020) | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Enhanced growth – more than reforestation – counteracted biomass carbon emissions (1990-2020) Julia Le Noe, Karl-Heinz Erb, Sarah Matej, Andreas Magerl, Manan Bhan, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-228823/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 19 Oct, 2021 Read the published version in Nature Communications → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Understanding the carbon (C) balance in global forest biomass is key for climate change mitigation. However, land-use and environmental drivers affecting forest C fluxes remain poorly isolated and quantified. Following a counterfactual modelling approached based on global Forest Resource Assessments, we show that in the hypothetical absence of changes in forest (i) area, (ii) harvest or (iii) burnt area, global forest biomass would reverse from an actual cumulative net C source of c. 2.4 GtC to a net C sink of 23.6, 2.7 and 5.2 GtC, respectively in 1990–2020. In contrast, cumulative emissions would be 12.9 GtC, i.e. 6 times higher, in the absence of forest growth changes. A typology systematically assessing C flux drivers reveals that enhanced growth, more than reforestation, counteracted C emissions. This sink function may, however, be discontinued in the future, thus alerting to the need for safer strategies to effectively preserve or enhance C sequestration. Forestry Climatology Carbon Balance Global Forest Biomass Climate Change Mitigation Counterfactual Modelling Approach Forest Growth Changes Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Full Text Due to technical limitations, full-text HTML conversion of this manuscript could not be completed. However, the latest manuscript can be downloaded and accessed as a PDF. Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SI1.docx SI2.xlsx Dataset1 Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 19 Oct, 2021 Read the published version in Nature Communications → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-228823","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":13558407,"identity":"813acdfb-bcef-4e65-af50-d100068476af","order_by":0,"name":"Julia Le Noe","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA/klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACxgbmhgMMDBZg9mMGhgRitDCCtEiA2MzGCC14tTI2MEC1sEkTpYV5RmLjgR8MEnLm7M3Hqgsq0hIb2A8/YPj5A48dMxIbDvYwSBhb9hxLuz3jTE5iA0+aAWMPHltAWg7wMEgkbriRY3abt60isYEhh4GBh4CWg38YJOo33Mj/VgzWwv+GgfEPAS2HgbYkGNzIYWPmbQM6TCKHgRmvLT0PGw7LGEgYbjhzzFh6xpk04zaJZwaHZdJwazFsTz788U2FjbzB8eaHnwsqkmX7+ZMfPnxjg0dLA4g0QBJhA+IDuDUwMMjjkxwFo2AUjIJRAAYAcjpRrBOpj5oAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8816-5800","institution":"Universität für Bodenkultur","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Julia","middleName":"Le","lastName":"Noe","suffix":""},{"id":13558408,"identity":"bc7d90fb-1c35-470a-8347-d451a556bfa7","order_by":1,"name":"Karl-Heinz Erb","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8335-4159","institution":"University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Karl-Heinz","middleName":"","lastName":"Erb","suffix":""},{"id":13558409,"identity":"6542295f-2217-4e84-b906-924571338715","order_by":2,"name":"Sarah Matej","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4576-4189","institution":"","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Sarah","middleName":"","lastName":"Matej","suffix":""},{"id":13558410,"identity":"8bfd4212-b083-45f3-b28c-a9f049bd4115","order_by":3,"name":"Andreas Magerl","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5861-2195","institution":"Universität für Bodenkultur","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Andreas","middleName":"","lastName":"Magerl","suffix":""},{"id":13558411,"identity":"086fe22c-8201-4a6c-a8b1-a69252e01b1b","order_by":4,"name":"Manan Bhan","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Universität für Bodenkultur","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Manan","middleName":"","lastName":"Bhan","suffix":""},{"id":13558412,"identity":"2fc4579b-97fa-43cd-ac5d-ffde074afdb7","order_by":5,"name":"Simone Gingrich","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7891-8688","institution":"Universität für Bodenkultur","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Simone","middleName":"","lastName":"Gingrich","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2021-02-10 17:27:01","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-228823/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-228823/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-26398-2","type":"published","date":"2021-10-19T04:00:00+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":6361722,"identity":"121c49a4-e04e-46ed-bb96-1536b566235a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-02-25 20:45:14","extension":"png","order_by":1,"title":"Figure 1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":226871,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Global trends in total, primary and production forests. (a) forest biomass C stocks (GtC); (b) cumulated change in forest area (Mha; negative values indicate area loss); (c) cumulated C net emissions (GtC; positive values indicate a C source while negative values indicate a C sink) and; (d) cumulated net change in C stock densities (tC/ha). See Fig. S1 for annual fluxes.","description":"","filename":"1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-228823/v1/d793478f7c887887c1435814.png"},{"id":6362407,"identity":"07c9d537-cd1f-4b86-a512-d8fb9746b78f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-02-25 20:48:14","extension":"png","order_by":2,"title":"Figure 2","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":367289,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Counterfactual scenarios (1990-2020) assessing the cumulative impact of: change in harvest (CF1); change in forest growth (CF2); change in burnt area (CF3); change in forest area (CF4); total harvest (CF5) and; total fire (CF6) on (a) C budget (GtC); (b) changes in forest biomass density (tC/ha), aggregated at the global level. Panels A and B show the gross and net CF C budgets and changes in biomass density respectively, with negative (red) and positive values (blue) indicating net emissions and sinks respectively (see Fig. S2 for additional figures showing the net difference between CF and actual C budgets and changes in biomass density). Maps show the effects of (c) CF1; (d) CF2; (e) CF3; (f) CF4; (g) CF5; (h) CF6, and are represented as the % of actual biomass C stocks that would be reached in each CF in 2020. Values above 100% (red) indicate that actual change result in net C emissions while values below 100% (blue) indicate that actual change result in a net C sink. Note: The designations employed and the presentation of the material on this map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of Research Square concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. This map has been provided by the authors.","description":"","filename":"2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-228823/v1/ca6c0623d6992a053f211fda.png"},{"id":6361724,"identity":"f33d8563-6961-4c13-8d76-096422574fa4","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-02-25 20:45:14","extension":"png","order_by":3,"title":"Figure 3","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":257254,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Main drivers of the net C emissions from forest biomass established according to a Boolean typology (see Fig. S3). The typology is (a) applied at the national level to the 1990-2020 period and; (b) enabled to calculate the sum of net C sinks and net C sources in each type of forest path identified through the typology. Abbreviation on the typology: E: C sink driven by forest area Expansion; LH: C sink driven by Lower Harvest; FR: C sink driven by Fire reduction; EG: C sink driven by Enhanced Growth; DG: C source driven by Declining Growth; FI: C source driven by Fire increase; HH: C source driven by Higher Harvest; D: C source driven by Deforestation NS: Non-significant change. Note: The designations employed and the presentation of the material on this map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of Research Square concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. This map has been provided by the authors.","description":"","filename":"3.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-228823/v1/1bb8aef2d3cc8df4f36ebabf.png"},{"id":6362888,"identity":"602032c2-2d7a-4c09-a1f5-d3a286e0b3ed","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-02-25 20:51:14","extension":"png","order_by":4,"title":"Figure 4","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":130851,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Change in forest growth and its effects on global carbon stocks. The Marimekko diagrams show national forest growth changes (y-axis) scaled along the cumulated size of the carbon stock in 1990 (x-axis). The area between the graph and the x-axis indicates the C-stock change due to growth for total (a), primary (b) and production forests (c). 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