Prediction of Corona Virus Disease 2019 based on SIR model in China

Background: From the end of 2019 to the beginning of 2020, the Corona Virus Disease 2019 epidemic occurred in Wuhan, China, and quickly spread to the whole country. We used SIR epidemic model to predict the epidemic trend in China. Materials and Methods Respectively fitted the Corona Virus Disease 2019 epidemic trend equations in China, Hubei, and Wuhan, predicted future trends, based on the hypothesis of the infectious disease process by the SIR model and the official announcement data of the Chinese Health Commission . Results There will be no new cases in the non-Hubei area nationwide after March 8; there will be no new cases in Hubei that non Wuhan after March 12; Wuhan will there be no new cases after March 22 ; Conclusions The epidemic will end soon in China, under the prevention and control measures are not relaxed.