Is China decoupling from the global value chain? A quantitative analysis framework based on the global production network

Is China decoupling from the global value chain? A quantitative analysis framework based on the global production network | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Is China decoupling from the global value chain? A quantitative analysis framework based on the global production network Chuke Jiang, Lizhi Xing This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5355384/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 11 Jun, 2025 Read the published version in Humanities and Social Sciences Communications → Version 1 posted 7 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract In recent years, frequent global emergencies have disrupted international stability and prompted countries to decouple from Global Value Chain (GVC) . How to restore the extent of countries’ decoupling is crucial for risk prevention. From a systems science perspective, this paper constructs a GIVCN model using ADB-MRIO data and proposes a theoretical framework for quantitatively analyzing the decoupling degree of economies and industries within GVC. Taking the U.S.’s new trade remedy measures as a case study, this paper examines their impact on China and “transit” countries regarding GVC decoupling. The main findings are: (1) Industries with significant intermediate goods trade are more stable in GVC than resource-based sectors during global disruptions. (2) Highly integrated countries with advanced economies show strong resilience and effectively utilize external resources in GVC. (3) Despite the COVID-19 impact, China’s resilience strengthened its GVC connections. (4) A domestic circulation-focused model enhances China’s ability to handle trade challenges from the West. (5) Multilateral trade agreements and “backdoor” export strategies effectively bypass U.S. trade restrictions in the short term. JEL: F731 Business and commerce/Economics Humanities/Complex networks Social science/Politics and international relations Decoupling and Disconnection Multi-Region Input-Output Table Multi-Layer Network Evolutionary Dynamics Silhouette Coefficient Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files GIVCNADB73R35SFISCGVCFDI.xlsx GIVCNADB73R35SBISCGVCBDI.xlsx GIVCNADB63R35SFISCGVCFDI.xlsx GIVCNADB63R35SBISCGVCBDI.xlsx code.rar Appendix.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 11 Jun, 2025 Read the published version in Humanities and Social Sciences Communications → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 24 Apr, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 10 Apr, 2025 Reviews received at journal 09 Apr, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 09 Apr, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 09 Apr, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 09 Apr, 2025 First submitted to journal 29 Mar, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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