A new perspective on future precipitation changes in Tanzania

A new perspective on future precipitation changes in Tanzania | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article A new perspective on future precipitation changes in Tanzania Stephanie Gleixner, Jascha Lehmann, Christoph Gornott This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3876536/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 4 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Tanzania's population and economy is very vulnerable to precipitation changes and extremes and therefor it is highly relevant to give reliable information about future precipitation changes for suitable adaptation planning. However, there is a strong disagreement between climate models for future precipitation changes in the region, which limits local trust in the projections. We break down the assessment of precipitation changes by classifying different precipitation categories using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). With this novel approach, we analyse the projections from the CORDEX Africa Ensemble and find that despite the disagreement in the trend of total precipitation, most models project a robust decrease in “normal” conditions as well as a robust increase in both extreme wet and extreme dry conditions throughout the 21st century. The differences between the models in terms of total precipitation are related to shifts of (near) normal conditions to wetter conditions in the case of wet models and to drier conditions for dry models. The results indicate an overall broadening of the rainfall distribution especially toward extremely wet conditions. Such robust results can contribute to build trust in climate projections for adaptation planning. Tanzania climate change CORDEX precipitation SPI Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers invited by journal 17 May, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 03 Mar, 2024 Editor assigned by journal 19 Jan, 2024 First submitted to journal 17 Jan, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-3876536","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":276099495,"identity":"ce7f72a3-7d13-4ccc-aa43-774e87d5a07f","order_by":0,"name":"Stephanie Gleixner","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAtUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACxgYQtrEBMRsPkKAlLQ3MJE4LRFvaYTCDOC3M7adTN85IOG+3tv0w0JYam2jCNvTkbru5IeF28rYziUAtx9JyGwg7Cqjl4Y/byWYHgFoYGw4ToaX/7babDxLOJZudf0islhlghx2wM7tBtC0zgLbMSEhOMLsBtCWBGL8Y9gNt6Umwszc7n/7wwYcaGyK0QFUkgukEQspBQB5K2xOjeBSMglEwCkYoAADkVFBlsrXUQwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0032-9696","institution":"Potsdam-Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung (PIK) e V","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Stephanie","middleName":"","lastName":"Gleixner","suffix":""},{"id":276099496,"identity":"d15c0627-7ca9-4c23-921b-98aa09ba3643","order_by":1,"name":"Jascha Lehmann","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Potsdam-Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung eV","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jascha","middleName":"","lastName":"Lehmann","suffix":""},{"id":276099497,"identity":"fdf43f3d-56a9-4986-bf56-e75e9fc8fca9","order_by":2,"name":"Christoph Gornott","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Potsdam-Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung (PIK) e V","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Christoph","middleName":"","lastName":"Gornott","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-01-18 18:02:35","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-3876536/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3876536/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":52095382,"identity":"00ef80a6-01dc-4345-ad42-b5f68d885338","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-03-06 15:43:07","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1075321,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-3876536/v1_covered_6c65b8aa-dbf7-4054-8218-5a3b5c5585d3.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"A new perspective on future precipitation changes in Tanzania","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"climatic-change","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"clim","sideBox":"Learn more about [Climatic Change](https://www.springer.com/journal/10584)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"https://www.editorialmanager.com/clim/default.aspx","title":"Climatic Change","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Tanzania, climate change, CORDEX, precipitation, SPI","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-3876536/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3876536/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Tanzania's population and economy is very vulnerable to precipitation changes and extremes and therefor it is highly relevant to give reliable information about future precipitation changes for suitable adaptation planning. 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