Research on the Risk Transmission Chain for Natech Event in Urban Lifeline Based on CN and SD

Research on the Risk Transmission Chain for Natech Event in Urban Lifeline Based on CN and SD | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Research on the Risk Transmission Chain for Natech Event in Urban Lifeline Based on CN and SD Shifeng LI, Yu SHANG, Meilin ZHAO This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5732247/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The urban lifeline Natech event is a multi-risk, multi-agent coupled system, and identifying the risk transmission chain is a prerequisite and foundation for the efficient management of urban lifeline Natech events. First, by analyzing the risk transmission mechanism, the urban lifeline Natech event involves both a natural disaster chain and a domino effect. Next, analyze the complexity and dynamic characteristics of the risk transmission chain and construct a CN-SD model for the risk transmission chain of the urban lifeline Natech event. Finally, use the "Top Ten Natural Disasters in China" and news reports as textual data to visualize the complex network of the risk transmission chain, quantify the indicators of the complex network model, and subsequently quantify the variables of the risk transmission chain system dynamics model to numerically simulate the risk transmission chain. The results indicate that this model can qualitatively and quantitatively analyze the risk transmission chain of urban lifeline Natech events. Furthermore, the numerical simulation can visualize the dynamic curve of the domino effect risk rate and level of urban lifeline technical accidents, such as traffic, power, communication, and water supply, in complex network disaster chain scenarios like rainstorms, gales, floods, and thunderstorms. This provides essential guidance for the development of risk prediction, assessment, prevention, and control measures for urban lifeline Natech events. Earth and environmental sciences/Natural hazards Physical sciences/Engineering Urban lifeline Natech event Risk transmission Risk chain Complex network System dynamics Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5732247","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":400475929,"identity":"fe973038-a281-4da7-b807-ee0d4c8998a6","order_by":0,"name":"Shifeng LI","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAsElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACPgbGBwwJDAxybOztB4jTwsbAbADSYszHcyaBBC1AkDhPwsGASC38h1k3PNxhk94mAbTsR8U2IrRIJLPdSDyTltsm3XiAsefMbWK08B+7kdh2OLdN5kACM2MbMVr4DwNtafufziaRYECkFgaQw9oOJJCgBeyXtmTDNmAgHyTKL/xAh9382WYnL9/efvDBjwoitKCAAySqHwWjYBSMglGACwAAwvo4dwCxIDIAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"School of Management, China University of Mining and Technology(Beijing)","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Shifeng","middleName":"","lastName":"LI","suffix":""},{"id":400475930,"identity":"fb9e5e94-639b-41c7-976b-365f3d8afcfe","order_by":1,"name":"Yu SHANG","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"School of Management, China University of Mining and Technology(Beijing)","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yu","middleName":"","lastName":"SHANG","suffix":""},{"id":400475931,"identity":"c99b82ba-68d3-45b9-8662-6b21d8f4f3d3","order_by":2,"name":"Meilin ZHAO","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"School of Management, China University of Mining and Technology(Beijing)","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Meilin","middleName":"","lastName":"ZHAO","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-12-30 03:08:16","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5732247/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5732247/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":101304945,"identity":"54d393b6-2f6f-4b19-b6f5-f08a4a82420c","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-28 10:03:36","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1671751,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ResearchontheRiskTransmissionChainforNatechEventinUrbanLifelineBasedonCNandSD.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5732247/v1_covered_6b75b423-9496-4121-a553-688ffa989e75.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Research on the Risk Transmission Chain for Natech Event in Urban Lifeline Based on CN and SD","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Urban lifeline, Natech event, Risk transmission, Risk chain, Complex network, System dynamics","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5732247/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5732247/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"The urban lifeline Natech event is a multi-risk, multi-agent coupled system, and identifying the risk transmission chain is a prerequisite and foundation for the efficient management of urban lifeline Natech events. 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Furthermore, the numerical simulation can visualize the dynamic curve of the domino effect risk rate and level of urban lifeline technical accidents, such as traffic, power, communication, and water supply, in complex network disaster chain scenarios like rainstorms, gales, floods, and thunderstorms. 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