Abstract
24
A central objective in neuroscience is to elucidate how the brain generates complex dynamic 25
activity through the interactions of brain areas . In this study, we utilize d Interaction Network, a 26
graph neural network model, to develop a computational framework for predicting whole-brain 27
cortical blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) signals. We derived an Inter -Regional 28
Interaction (IRI) metric to quantify information exchange among brain areas probing the underlying 29
dynamical mechanisms. In addition, the total IRI emitted from each brain region was calculated and 30
defined as the IRI sent by region (RS-IRI). Our model predicted the following 10 time points BOLD 31
activity from initial BOLD signals , and achieved a mean absolute error of 0.0 4. The predicted 32
functional connectivity (FC) achieves a correlation coefficient of 0.9 7 compared to the empirical 33
FC. The fluctuation amplitude of the IRI increases with the length of the connection and the largest 34
RS-IRI oscillation amplitude is observed in visual areas . The RS-IRI demonstrates a hierarchical 35
organization, characterized by more concentrated distributions in association regions and larger 36
fluctuation amplitudes in unimodal regions. Applying our approach to Alzheimer’s disease (AD), 37
we demonstrate that the frequency-specific amplitudes of IRI oscillations discriminate AD patients 38
from healthy controls and correlate with Mini-Mental State Examination scores. Together, this work 39
presents a deep learning–based framework for modeling brain dynamics as well a quantitative index 40
of inter-areal interactions, and offers a new perspective for disease characterization. 41
Keywords
Neurodynamic Modeling , Graph Neural Network (GNN), Brain Inter -regional 42
Interaction, Alzheimer's disease (AD) 43
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Author Summary 44
The human brain comprises distinct regions that interact through complex fiber tracts, forming 45
the functional dynamics for diverse cognitive processes. We employed fMRI to assess functional 46
activity and DTI to reconstruct fiber tract connectivity. To elucidate how brain function emerges 47
from these inter -regional interactions, we developed a novel computational framework based on 48
Graph Neural Network (GNN) to model the brain’s interactive dynamics for its capacity to uncover 49
hidden and intricate patterns within data. From this model, we derived a quantitative metric termed 50
Inter-Regional Interaction ( IRI), which characterized the fine -grained, dynamic fluctuations in 51
communication between brain areas. Our results suggest that this GNN-based model can accurately 52
simulate brain functional activity and provide a quantitative description of neural interaction 53
patterns. Applying this model to a cohort of Alzheimer’s disease patients, we demonstrated that the 54
IRI metric not only effectively distinguish ed patients from healthy controls but also significantly 55
correlated with clinical cognitive performance (MMSE scores). This approach a dvances our 56
understanding of the fundamental principles of brain function and offers a promising tool for 57
identifying the underlying mechanisms of neurological disorders. 58
Introduction
59
The human brain is a highly complex system comprising various types of n eurons and glial 60
cells. A central focus of brain research is understanding how the brain generates its intricate dynamic 61
activities, which support a wide range of cognitive functions(1–3). Alterations in these dynamics 62
can indicate systemic brain disorders (4) or transient pharmacological states (5). Many researchers 63
have sought to describe brain dynamics from multiple perspectives, yielding insights into 64
phenomena such as multistability(6 –8), metastability(9), co -occurring ripple oscillations (10), and 65
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criticality(11,12). A widely accepted consensus is that brain dynamics are markedly nonlinear(13), 66
which are presented at multiple levels, from individual neuron activity to the collective interactions 67
of neuronal populations. This pervasive nonlinearity contributes to the overall complexity of the 68
brain as a system. While these studies analyze and characterize dynamic activities from various 69
perspectives, a pressing question remains: what factors, at both microscopic and macroscopic scales, 70
give rise to these dynamic patterns? A broad proposition suggests that such nonlinear dynamics 71
originate from both local intrinsic activity and inter-regional interactions(14). Crucially, these inter-72
regional interactions are constrained by the brain’s structural connectivity, which facilitates 73
information transmission between areas and integrates their activities into a globally cohesive yet 74
richly interactive dynamic system, rather than an ensemble of isolated regional dynamics. To 75
investigate the mechanisms underlying these dynamics more sophisticated, mechanism -oriented 76
approaches are needed to explore how these dynamics originate and are shaped. 77
Dynamical models represent a vital approach for investigating brain dynamics, as their ability 78
to encapsulate complex activities within a single framework enab les both the elucidation of 79
underlying mechanisms and the prediction of future states. Since the introduction of the 80
foundational Hodgkin-Huxley (H-H) model(15) and the Wilson-Cowan (W-C) model(16), extensive 81
research has expanded this neuronal framework to encompass larger systems (17). While thes e 82
studies have successfully constructed dynamic models for individual neurons or specific brain 83
regions, a comprehensive understanding of brain activity mechanisms necessitates the development 84
of dynamic models for the entire brain. Whole-brain dynamical models are typically constructed 85
using network- based modeling, where brain regions are represented as nodes and structural 86
connections between these regions serve as edges. For instance, dynamic causal modeling employs 87
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multivariate nonlinear equations to fit regional activity (18–21) and network-based modeling 88
approaches grounded in neural mass models or neural field models have been widely utilized(17,22–89
25). Several phenomenological models have also yielded significant results in whole -brain 90
modeling. For instance, the Hopf whole-brain model integrates structural connectivity (in the form 91
of adjacency matrices) with local dynamics such as noise and time delays in each brain region (26). 92
This integration enables the analysis and prediction of functional connectivity (FC) (26,27), 93
providing dee per insights into the relationship between brain structure and function (28). 94
Furthermore, they facilitate the simulation of whole- brain activity, allowing researchers to 95
understand various brain states and predict how different regions may respond to external 96
disturbances, serve as valuable tools in pathology and pharmacology research, aiding in the 97
exploration of how brain dynamics react to disruptions or interventions (27). However, these 98
approaches rely heavily on a priori expert knowledge and intuition. We aim to employ a data-driven 99
framework that enables researchers to extract richer insights directly from the intrinsic structure of 100
the data. 101
In recent years, deep learning has garnered significant attention in neuroscience due to its 102
success in capturing hidden and complex patterns within data. Various convolutional neural 103
networks and recurrent neural networks have proven effective in modeling structural or functio nal 104
signals (29,30). Motivated by the recognition that the brain can naturally be represented as a graph, 105
there has been growing interest in applying graph neural networks (GNN) (31–33). GNN are 106
specifically designed to treat the brain as a directed graph, where nodes represent anatomical brain 107
regions and edges denote morphological, functional, or structural connectivity between pairwise 108
nodes(34). Regarding node-edge processing paradigms, GNN can be categorized into three primary 109
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classes(35): (1) those that aggregate features of neighboring nodes using a learnable filter, as seen 110
in graph convolutional networks ; (2) those based on a self -attention algorithm that identifies the 111
most significant neighbors for aggregation, as in graph attention networks; and (3) those employing 112
a message -passing mechanism, where features of both the node are in consideration and its 113
neighboring nodes are combined to learn the local graph representation. In recent years, some 114
approaches have also employed ordinary differential equations as update rules(36,37). Among these 115
approaches, message-passing-based interactive network (IN) enable the prediction of not only the 116
dynamic signal but also the inter -node interactions. In physics, IN have been successfully applied 117
to simulate diverse phenomena(38) and model Newton's Second Law (39), demonstrating their 118
effectiveness in modeling interaction patterns within complex networks while generating 119
interpretable representations of node interactions. 120
To achieve a more accurate fitting of whole- brain neural dynamics, this study developed a 121
computational model based on IN to predict BOLD signals across the entire cortical surface. The 122
model calculated interaction information between different brain regions constrained by structural 123
connectivity and predicted dynamic changes in regions through their inter-regional interactions. We 124
trained the model and evaluated its performance on a test set by calculating the Mean Absolute Error 125
(MAE) of the predictions and their correlation with actual FC as the metric of the method's 126
effectiveness in simulating dynamic variations of cortical signals. We analyzed prediction errors 127
across different regions and investigated its relationship with neural volatility and molecular 128
biological maps to uncover the underlying causes of the spatial distribution in prediction accuracy. 129
Leveraging the model, we extracted inter -regional interaction information at the individual level. 130
By applying this approach to fMRI from Alzheimer’s disease (AD) patients, we found that the model 131
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successfully captured oscillatory patterns in inter-regional interactions that differentiate AD patients 132
from normal controls (NC). The constructed model offers a novel approach for analyzing brain 133
dynamics, and the derived interaction metrics provide valuable insights for disease research. 134
Results
135
Workflow 136
This study constructed an IN model based on a message -passing mechanism. By fitting and 137
training on BOLD signals, the model generated interaction messages between different brain regions, 138
enabling the simulation of whole -brain dynamics. The model was trained and validated using the 139
resting state fMRI (rs -fMRI) from the Human Connectome Project (HCP) dataset, and the inter -140
region interactions (IRI) produced by the model were subsequently analyzed. The cortex was 141
segmented into regions according to the MMP360 atlas(40). The mean BOLD signal of each region 142
was calculated as a proxy for the dynamic neural activity within that region ( Figure 1 A). The 143
specific training strategy is detailed in the Methods section. The trained model was then applied to 144
the test set, and prediction errors were analyzed across different regions ( Figure 1B). These error 145
distributions underwent correlation analyses with other brain maps to investigate the sources of 146
regional heterogeneity in prediction accuracy. Subsequently, dynamic interaction messages between 147
regions were extracted, and the information fluctuation maps emitted by different regions were 148
computed ( Figure 1C). Finally, we applied our method to data collected from AD patients and 149
control subjects at Xuanwu Hospital ( Figure 1D). We compared IRI between the AD and control 150
groups and examined the association between the oscillation patterns of inter -regional interactions 151
and Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores. 152
Model Validation and Prediction Accuracy Analysis 153
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To validate the effectiveness of the methods employed in this study, we constructed 154
individualized cortical neural activity prediction models based on IN for each subject, with data 155
partitioned into training and test sets chronologically, assigning the earlier time points to the training 156
set and the latter time points to the test . Model performance was evaluated using two metrics on the 157
test set: the MAE between predicted and actual signals, and the correlation between FC matrices derived 158
from the predicted and actual signals. The raw BOLD signals were z-scored and the average whole-brain 159
MAE for the predicted data was 0.04. These results indicate that the model can accurately predict 160
dynamic fluctuations across the entire brain. Since each prediction sequence spans 10 TRs, we computed 161
the functional connectivity of the predicted signals using two approaches: a segmented prediction method 162
and a continuous prediction method. The segmented method assesses the model’s ability to reproduce 163
FC over short timescales, while the continuous method evaluates performance in long -term prediction 164
scenarios, where error accumulation may occur (see Methods for details) . Both approaches partially 165
recapitulated the structure of the actual functional connectivity (see Figure 2 B, Figure S1). The 166
correlation coefficient between the FC derived from segmented predictions and the true FC is 0.9745 ± 167
0.0067, while the correlation for the continuous prediction method is lower at 0.4957 ± 0.0897. 168
We found that predictive accuracy (MAE) varies across brain regions (Figure 2A). The frontal 169
lobe yields the best predictions and the visual area yields the poorest. We hypothesized that 170
differential prediction performance across brain regions reflects their distinct neural variability. To 171
test this, we examined the relationship between predicted MAE and neural variability . We defined 172
neural variability as the standard deviation (SD) of regional signals(41). Our analysis revealed that, 173
at both the individual and regional levels, the model-predicted MAE was positively correlated with 174
neural variability, supporting the hypothesis that a higher MAE reflects more complex and flexible 175
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regional activity (Figure 2C, D), therefore, harder to predict. 176
To further investigate the underlying factors affecting prediction accuracy across brain regions, 177
we correlated the MAE distribution with a diverse set of cortical maps . We hypothesized that 178
regional activity could be influenced by both the region's microstructure and mesoscopic functional 179
properties. Therefore, we conducted correlation analyses between the region -wise average MAE 180
maps derived from our model and various maps from neuromaps(42), including functional gradients, 181
coarse-grained structural features, microstructural receptor distributions, and finer -grained gene 182
gradients. All correlations were assessed using permutation tests and corrected for multiple 183
comparisons using the false discovery rate (FDR). Notably, we found a statistically significant but 184
modest negative association between model- predicted regional MAE and the mean distribution of 185
norepinephrine transporters (NET) (Figure 2 E), as observed with Methylreboxetine targets (43). 186
These receptors modulate presynaptic sodium uptake, thereby terminating neural signaling(44) . 187
This finding may suggest that regions with a higher norepinephrine transporters density leads to 188
greater inhibition of noradrenergic signal transmission , which give rise to more stable signals and 189
enabling more accurate predictions by the model. 190
191
Inter-regional interaction information and its characteristics 192
The advantage of IN model is the ability to capture information transfer between distinct brain 193
regions. In this study, we derived the IRI from functional signals, utilizing the extraction method 194
described in the Methods section. To address the 30-dimensional interaction messages, we reduced 195
the data by selecting the first principal component as the IRI (Figure S2), resulting in a time-varying 196
IRI sequence for each inter -regional connection ( Figure 3A). Also, we aggregated the interaction 197
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messages originating from each region and similarly selected the first principal component of this 198
sum as the IRI sent by region (RS-IRI). We used the SD of the IRI as a measure of the flexibility of 199
information transfer between brain regions. A positive correlation was observed between this 200
flexibility and the length of the inter -regional connection (Figure 3B), suggesting that long -range 201
connections may exhibit a greater capacity for adaptive information transfer. This increased capacity 202
may be due to their exposure to more dynamic transmission conte xts, the involvement of more 203
complex signals, and the need for larger signal fluctuations to ensure accurate transmission. 204
To investigate whether different functional sub- networks send information with distinct 205
strengths, we plotted boxplots of emission strength across sub-networks (Figure 3C). We found that 206
as hierarchical level increases, the distribution of emitted information strength exhibits lower 207
variance. This centralization may arise from higher-order regions, such as the default mode network 208
(DMN), exhibiting a relatively lower excitation–inhibition ratio, which leads to stronger inhibitory 209
signals and consequently more stable information emission (45,46). Finally, we quantified the 210
variance of RS-IRI across brain regions, finding that visual regions exhibited the greatest flexibility 211
in emitting interaction information ( Figure 3D). This may reflect the highly diverse information 212
generated and output by these regions. 213
Application in Alzheimer's diseases 214
To investigate whether neurodegenerative pathology induces alterations in the dynamic interactions 215
among cortical regions, we applied our computational model to data from AD patients. Our analyses 216
revealed differences in the mean predict ed MAE between the AD and NC groups but did not show 217
significant group differences (Figure 4A), likely due to the limited sample size. Before computing the 218
IRI, we compared the SD of interaction messages across each dimension between the AD and NC groups, 219
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which we used as a proxy for the amount of information carried by the IRI . We found that, in most 220
dimensions, the between-group differences were significant, while non-significant dimensions tended to 221
have lower SD, suggesting that these dimensions may carry less informational content (Figure 4B). The 222
SD of interaction messages in the NC group was significantly higher than in the AD group, indicating 223
greater flexibility in inter-regional interactions for the NC group. This may refle ct that the AD patients 224
experience dysfunction in inter-regional information transfer with less informative content. 225
We computed the IRI for each subject in both the AD and NC groups. Our results indicated that the 226
AD and NC groups differ in their IRIs, wi th the AD group showing more high -frequency components 227
(Figure 4C). To examine whether the spectral content of the IRI could distinguish AD patients from 228
controls, we performed Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) on the IRI signals for each edge, obtaining their 229
spectral profiles. We then conducted t- tests on the amplitude at each frequency band, applying FDR 230
correction, the results see supplementary table. Results confirmed our hypothesis, revealing significant 231
differences in IRI predominantly in the high-frequency range, where the AD group exhibited markedly 232
increased IRI on connecting edges ( Figure 4 D). This attenuation of high -frequency inter -regional 233
information exchange suggests that cognitive deficits in AD may be associated with increased high-234
frequency noise contamination in neural interactions. We analyzed the connections showing significant 235
differences in IRI across different frequency bands and found that the majority of IRI with significant 236
differences were located in the information flows of intra- or inter- higher-order regions, particularly 237
involving the frontoparietal network and the ventral attention network (Figure 4D). 238
We further investigated the relationship between IRI across different frequency bands and cognitive 239
impairment in AD patients, we correlated the amplitude values of each edge within each frequency band 240
with the MMSE scores in the AD group. Significance was evaluated using permutation testing with FDR 241
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correction. Ultimately, we identified six edges where amplitude of communication in specific frequency 242
bands significantly correlated with MMSE scores , predominantly distributed in the medial and lateral 243
prefrontal cortices and the c ingulate cortex (Figure 5). All these regions are situated within the fronto -244
parietal network, default mode network, and ventral attention network, indicating that IRI within and 245
between these networks may reflect cognitive performance as measured by the MMSE in AD patients. 246
Discussion
247
Our study developed a computational model based on IN to predict BOLD signals across the entire 248
cortical surface. This model computes interregional interaction information constrained by structural 249
connectivity and predicts dynamic BOLD changes in brain regions through their inter -regional 250
interactions. Validation using MAE and FC correlation demonstrated that this approach effectively 251
simulates dynamic variations in cortical signals. By extracting inter -regional interaction information at 252
the individual level from the model and applying it to a dataset of AD patients, we found that the model 253
captures distinct oscillatory interaction patterns between brain regions in AD patients compared to NC. 254
The constructed model offers a novel method for analyzing brain dynamics, and the derived interaction 255
metrics provide new perspectives for disease research. 256
The rationale for using GNN in brain dynamical modeling 257
GNN represent a deep learning framework adept at analyzing network -structured data. They are 258
extensively applied across various domains, including power grids(47), transportation networks(48), and 259
financial systems (49). Recently, some researchers have begun employing GNN for modeling neural 260
systems(50,51) due to their superior capacity for processing and analyzing network-structured data. Most 261
GNN utilize graph convolution modules(52–54), while others use message-passing mechanisms, which, 262
although computationally intensive, can capture interactions between pairs of nodes, such as gravitational 263
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interactions among planets (39) and forces between high -energy particles (55). This message -passing 264
approach emphasizes connections but requires greater computational capacity. To enhance the reliability 265
of interaction information and minimize interference from multiple computational modules, this study 266
adopts a streamlined model construction approach: both the interaction information generation module 267
and the node state generation module are constructed using simple multilayer perceptron (MLP), without 268
integrating additional computational components. 269
Inspired by these studies, we developed an IN model capable of predicting cortical BOLD signals 270
by leveraging dynamic interregional interactions. The model achieved an average MAE of 0.04 in 271
predicting overall fMRI signals. This results represent an improvement over the diffusion convolution 272
recurrent neural network (DCRNN) and graph WaveNet (GWN) used in prior research (53), 273
demonstrating the model’s effectiveness in capturing dynamic fluctuations in cortical BOLD signals. 274
The segmented prediction approach facilitated partial reproduction of FC structures (see Figure 2C, 275
D), with a correlation coefficient of 0.9745 to actual FC , slightly higher than the 0.95 reported for 276
DCRNN(53). However, due to different computational methodologies, these values are not directly 277
comparable. Consequently, the correlation between sequentially predicted FC and true FC, affected by 278
accumulated errors, was lower at 0.4957. This result, like other data -driven models (30), is modest 279
compared to most traditional dynamical models, which typically begin with empirical equatio ns and 280
structured networks and iteratively tune parameters to enhance the similarity between generated and 281
actual FC(27,56,57). Improving FC correlation in generated sequences is plausible since these sequences 282
need only replicate certain structural aspects of FC rather than its full range of features. Our method 283
optimized the model by fitting it to real sequences, minimizing the discrepancy between generated and 284
actual data via the loss function. Despite the model's underwhelming performance in continuous FC 285
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prediction, which indicates a deficiency in capturing long -range temporal dependencies, it enables 286
derived inter-regional interactions to inform subsequent predictions of cortical dynamics. Ideally, if the 287
model could perfectly simulate whole -brain dynamics, the generated sequences should exhibit a 288
complete FC structure. Unfortunately, the current model appears focused primarily on input and target 289
10 TR data, aligning with our design objectives, while neglecting long-range influences. This limitation 290
is understandable, as such constraints were not explicitly incorporated into the model. Prior studies have 291
suggested that long-range BOLD signal simulations driven by data depend on noise(30). Since our model 292
excluded noise, long-range predictions tend to converge toward attractors over time. We believe, however, 293
that introducing noise could undermine the reliability of the IRI metrics, leading us to incorporate only 294
regularization-based noise introduction, avoiding explicit noise-driven modeling. 295
Understanding and application of IRI 296
Using our model, we extracted IRI and related it to the concept of information flow. Historically, 297
information flow has been described as the directionality and strength of information transfer among 298
different brain regions(58,59). This definition, in conjunction with effective connectivity, bears similarity 299
to approaches such as dynamic causal modeling(60) . Recent advancements in DTI have provided a 300
structural basis for information flow(61,62). However, characterizing information transfer directionality 301
in a purely static manner is insufficient. To fully under stand information processing in the brain , 302
including perception, transduction, coordination, storage, and generation, an analysis of dynamic 303
fluctuations is imperative, as these processes reflect continuous changes in the brain's underlying states, 304
even under constant environmental conditions(63,64). These dynamics evolve over time and are rooted 305
in the brain’s structural connectivity(65) . Therefore, when constructing a comprehensive bra in 306
communication model, these factors must be duly considered(66,67) . In this study, the whole -brain 307
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dynamical model based on GNN gener ates dynamic interregional information transfer by integrating 308
BOLD signals from different regions and their structural connectivity, representing these processes as a 309
temporal sequence. This sequence is akin to edge Time Series (eTS), originally defined as a co -310
fluctuation time series, the pointwise product of z -scored signals from two brain regions at successive 311
time points(68). It provides a mechanism for deconstructing FC into temporal sequences. A connection-312
centric measure called edge functional connectivity (edge FC or eFC) captures the dynamic expression 313
of brain functional systems through fine -scale edge time series analysis (69,70). However, unlike eTS, 314
the IRI produced from the IN model is not reconstructed from static FC, thereby avoiding concerns 315
regarding its "dynamic" nature (71–73). Crucially, the IRI is grounded in the underlying structural 316
connectivity derived from DTI, rather than being inferred solely from functional signals. Essentially, IRI 317
offers a method for deriving fluctuations in connection edges directly from dynamic variations in fMRI 318
signals, and these fluctuations are both structure-based and biologically grounded. 319
We observed a positive correlation between the variability of IRI and the length of connections. 320
Long-range connections are known to play a crucial role in brain activity (74). Although some studies 321
suggest that brain geometry alone can reconstruct functional connectivity(75), other research , both 322
experimental and clinical, demonstrates that sparse long-range connections are vital for the complexity 323
of brain functional dynamics (76–78). Our findings support this notion, indicating that long- range 324
connections are essential in whole -brain modeling, with their significance increasing with connection 325
length. A dditionally, some studies report that distant projections are more strongly influenced by 326
electrical stimulation(79), which may explain our results: greater IRI variability could correspond to a 327
higher information -carrying capacity, suggesting that long -range connections transmit more potent 328
electrical stimuli. The average strength of IRI emitted by different brain regions exhibits a gradient 329
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distribution across various functional subnetworks, indicating that higher -order brain regions generate 330
the strongest IRI during resting-state conditions. This suggests that these regions are more likely to play 331
a dominant role in resting-state activity. 332
In the analysis of AD patients, we noticed that the IRI in the AD group contained more high -333
frequency components, yet the standard deviation (SD) of the interaction messages was significantly 334
lower. This suggests diminished flexibility in information transmission coupled with increased erroneous 335
noise, which reduced the proportion of meaningful content within the transmitted signals. We observed 336
significant differences in the IRI within the 0.4– 0.5 Hz frequency band compared to NC. These 337
oscillatory pattern variations have been documented in EEG studies (80). Unlike previous research that 338
focused on signals from individual brain regions, our study employs IRI; since IRI is inherently related 339
to the underlying regional signals, the findings align with earlier research indicating abnormal neuronal 340
firing activity in the theta frequency band in AD patients(81). Due to the limited temporal resolution of 341
fMRI data, we cannot capture information in higher frequency ranges. Nevertheless, leveraging the high 342
spatial resolution of fMRI allows us to analyze how oscillatory interaction frequencies between brain 343
regions relate to cognitive scores and to identify specific connection sites involved. We identified six 344
connections where IRI significantly correlates with M MSE scores in AD patients, predominantly 345
distributed in the medial and lateral prefrontal cortices and the cingulate cortex . Notably, four of these 346
links connect the DMN to other networks. These findings support prior research on functional 347
connectivity alterations in AD patients (82), reinforcing the notion that the DMN exhibits pathological 348
changes in AD, subsequently affecting other regions involved in higher cognitive functions via 349
interregional interactions. 350
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Limitations
351
First, this study employs GNN to predict discretized fMRI signals . However, it does not construct 352
continuous dynamic models akin to differential equations. Future research incorporating mechanistic 353
approaches from machine learning (83) could facilitate the development of brain dynamics models 354
capable of continuous prediction. Second, the structural connectivity in this study was based on data 355
obtained through DTI tractography for model construction. However, DTI imaging may have accuracy 356
Limitations
and often overlooks non -long-range synaptic transmissions between brain regions (e.g., 357
adjacency ef fects). The brain’s dynamic behavior may not solely depend on network -like structural 358
connectivity(84); some studies suggest that brain dynamics could also arise from geometric 359
morphology(75). Integrating approaches such as geodesic distance (85) and cellular architecture 360
similarity networks (86) can complement these various connection s. Employing heterogeneous GNN 361
methods(87) may aid in constructing such multifaceted models. Third, current models are primarily data-362
driven at a macroscopic scale and neglect microstructural elements such as neurons. They also do not 363
incorporate task-driven models at the phenotypic cognitive level. Future work should aim to integrate 364
task-based approaches, developing multimodal, multiscale models based on microscopic priors, aligning 365
with the goal of multiscale brain modeling(88). 366
367
Methods
368
Participants 369
This study utilizes two batches of data, obtained from the Human Connectome Project (HCP) by 370
the National Institutes of Health (NIH) (89) and from the Neurology Department at Xuanwu Hospital, 371
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Capital Medical University in China. Following quality control procedures based on head motion and 372
the length of the remaining time series, a total of 148 participants from the HCP dataset were retained, 373
including 72 males and 76 females, aged between 22 and 35 years. In addition, we enrolled 41 patients 374
diagnosed with Alzheimer's disease (AD) from the memory clinic of the Neurology Department at 375
Xuanwu Hospital, Capital Medical University (CMU) in China. We also recruited 42 healthy individuals 376
as normal controls from local communities in Beijing, China. This study obtained approval from the 377
Medical Research Ethics Committee at Xuanwu Hospital, and all participants provided written informed 378
consent. Standard clinical assessments were conducted on all participants, whic h included a thorough 379
medical history investigation, neurological examination, and neuropsychological tests. The cognitive 380
tests administered encompassed the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA, Beijing version) (90), 381
Auditory Verbal Learning Test (A VLT), Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR) (91), Mini -Mental State 382
Examination (MMSE), Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HAMD), Activities of Daily Living (ADL) 383
scale, Hachinski Ischemic Scale, and the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression scale (92). The 384
patients with AD were diagnosed based on the criteria of the National Institute of Aging -Alzheimer’s 385
Association (NIA -AA) for clinically probable AD (93). After data preprocessing, the final sample 386
comprised 34 healthy control individuals and 23 AD patients. The age range of the participants was 387
between 53 and 81 years. Among the AD group, there were 14 males and 9 females, while the contr ol 388
group consisted of 21 males and 13 females. 389
Data acquisition 390
The HCP dataset comprises resting -state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rs -fMRI) and 391
diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (dMRI) data. Each participant in the HCP dataset underwent two 392
15-minute resting-state fMRI scans at different time points, acquired from two directions. This resulted 393
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19
in a total of 60 minutes of rs -fMRI data, comprising 4800 repetitions with a Time Repetition (TR) of 394
720ms. The scans were performed on a Siemens Skyra scanner with a 3T field strength. This study 395
utilizes two batches of data, obtained from the Human Connectome Project (HCP) by the National 396
Institutes of Health (NIH)(89) and from the Neurology Department at Xuanwu Hospital, Capital Medical 397
University in China. The HCP dataset comprises rs -fMRI and dMRI data. Each participant in the HCP 398
dataset underwent two 15-minute rs fMRI scans at different time points, acquired from two directions. 399
This resulted in a total of 60 minutes of rs-fMRI data, comprising 4800 repetitions with a Time Repetition 400
(TR) of 720ms. The scans were performed on a Siemens Skyra scanner with a 3T field strength. 401
The data from the Neurology Department at Xuanwu Hospital, Capital Medical University (CMU), 402
comprises rs-fMRI and DTIdata. All images were acquired on 3.0 T Siemens system (Magnetom Trio 403
Tim; Erlangen, Germany) at the Department of Radiology, Xuanwu Hospital, Capital Medical University, 404
Beijing, China. T1-weighted images were acquired using a magnetization prepared rapid gradient echo 405
(MPRAGE) sequence (TR = 1900 ms; TE = 2.2 ms; TI = 900 ms; flip angle = 9◦;FOV= 224 mm × 256 406
mm; matrix size = 448 × 512; number of slices = 176; slice thickness = 1 mm). Functional images were 407
acquired axially using a gradient-echo EPI sequence (TR = 2000 ms; TE = 40 ms; flip angle = 90◦ ;FOV= 408
240 mm × 240 mm; matrix size =64 × 64; number of sections = 28; section thickness = 4 mm; voxel size 409
= 3.75 × 3.75 × 4mm3;gap= 1 mm; volume number = 239). DTI images were collected axially by using 410
a single-shot echo-planar sequence (repetition time (msec)/echo time (msec), 11000/98; flip angle, 90◦; 411
field of view, 256 × 232 mm2; 128 × 116 matrix; 60 sections; section thickness, 2 mm; voxel size, 2 × 2 412
× 2 mm3; 30 gradient directions with b value of 1000 sec/mm2 and one image with a b value of 0 413
sec/mm2; and three averages). 414
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Data preprocessing 415
For the HCP dataset , an affine transformation was initially applied to register individual dMRI 416
images with the T1-weighted image. Then, the structural image of each individual was registered to the 417
ICBM152 template(94), yielding an inverse warping transformation from the standard space to the dMRI 418
space. The HCP MMP 1.0 atlas (40) was then mapped onto the sample space using this inverse 419
transformation. This division divided the entire brain into 360 brain regions, with 180 regions per 420
hemisphere. Fiber tractography was subsequently performed using DSI -Studio(95). By calculating the 421
eigenvalues and eigenvectors of water molecules in three directions, fiber tracts wer e traced. Two 422
weighted matrices, the connection density matrix and the connection length matrix, were constructed 423
based on the fiber tracts between two nodes. 424
Regarding fMRI data processing, the HCP -pipeline was initially applied for minimal 425
preprocessing(96). Subsequently, a high-pass filter with FWHM greater than 2000s was applied to the 426
fMRI signals and the ICA-FIX(97,98) method was then employed to remove noise components from the 427
fMRI signals, followed by regression of the data using the global signal as a regressor. Finally, a bandpass 428
filter ranging from 0.009 to 0.08 Hz was applied to eliminate most of the noise. After post -processing, 429
the entire cerebral cortex was segmented according to the HCP MMP 1.0 atlas( 40). The average fMRI 430
signal within each brain region was calculated, obtaining fMRI signal values for the 360 brain regions. 431
Incomplete data were discarded, and subjects with head motion exceeding 0.25 were excluded. Among 432
the remaining subjects, time points with head motion exceeding 0.25 were removed, and the data were 433
divided into non-uniform intervals. Each interval overlapped by grouping them in sets of 20 time points, 434
where the first ten time points represented the input data, and the latter ten t ime points represented the 435
true values of the output data. If an interval contained fewer than 20 time points, it was discarded. The 436
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data from individuals with input-output groupings greater than 2000 were retained, resulting in a total of 437
148 participants, including 72 males and 76 females, with ages ranging from 22 to 35 years. 438
As for t he data from the Neurology Department at Xuanwu Hospital we utilized the MRTrix 3.0 439
pipeline(99) for DTI preprocessing. Firstly, an affine transformation was applied to register individual 440
DTI images with the T1 -weighted image. Subsequently, the structural images of each individual were 441
registered to the ICBM152 template(94) . Computing the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of water 442
molecules in the brain along three directions to trace the fiber and obtained connection probabilities. The 443
connection probabilities between two brain regions were summed based on the HCP MMP 1.0 atlas(40), 444
resulting in a connection probability-weighted structural connectivity matrix (SC). 445
We utilized the fMRIPrep 20.0.7 pipeline (100) for the preprocessing of fMRI data. The 446
preprocessing steps for the T1- weighted images included intensity non- uniformity correction, skull 447
stripping, spatial normalization to the standard space (MNI152NLin6Asym), brain tissue segmentation, 448
and cortical surface reconstruction. The preprocessing steps for the rs-fMRI data involved removing the 449
first five time points, motion correction, slice-timing correction, and co-registration to the corresponding 450
T1-weighted images using boundary-based registration. Subsequently, we employed spatial smoothing 451
using an isotropic Gaussian kernel with a full width at half maximum (FWHM) of 6 mm. In the denoising 452
phase, we performed automatic removal of motion artifacts using ICA -based Automatic Removal Of 453
Motion Artifacts (AROMA)(101), a 24-parameter model, and linear regression, which included signals 454
from the mean white matter and cerebral spinal fluid (102). This was followed by the application of a 455
high-pass filter using a discrete cosine filter with a cutoff period of 128 s. After processing, the whole-456
brain cortex was parcellated according to the HCP MMP 1.0 atlas(40) and the average fMRI signal within 457
each brain region was calculated to obtain signal values for 360 brain regions. After excluding the images 458
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with significant head motion (head motion exceeding 0.5), the final sample comprised 34 healthy control 459
individuals and 23 AD patients. The age range of the participants was between 53 and 81 years. Among 460
the AD group, there were 14 males and 9 females, while the control group consisted of 21 males and 13 461
females. 462
IN models construction 463
The model can be considered a hidden function 𝐹𝐹(𝑥𝑥), denoted as 𝐹𝐹𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎(𝑥𝑥), and its overall operation 464
process can be represented by an equation. 465
�𝑋𝑋1, 𝑋𝑋2, … , 𝑋𝑋𝑇𝑇𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜� = 𝐹𝐹𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎��𝑋𝑋1, 𝑋𝑋2, … , 𝑋𝑋𝑇𝑇𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖�; 𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺ℎ� (1) 466
In which 𝑋𝑋𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 represents the predicted fMRI signal, expressed as a 360 -dimensional vector, with 467
the subscript number indicating the number of time points. This study uses fMRI signals from 10 time 468
points as input, hence 𝑇𝑇= 10. 𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺ℎ denotes the whole-brain network, which is represented using a 469
structural connectivity matrix derived from dMRI tracking. 470
The process of information interaction includes two parts: the transmission and reception of 471
information. Based on this idea, 𝐹𝐹(𝑥𝑥)can be decomposed into two functions: the information interaction 472
function, 𝐼𝐼(𝑥𝑥), and the state change function, 𝑅𝑅(𝑥𝑥). This model can be simplified to the level of brain 473
regions. Information is transmitted between brain regions through the interaction function 𝐼𝐼(𝑥𝑥) , as 474
shown in equation (2). 475
𝐼𝐼𝑅𝑅𝐼𝐼𝑖𝑖,𝑗𝑗= 𝐼𝐼��𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖
1, 𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖
2, … , 𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖
𝑇𝑇𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖�, �𝑥𝑥𝑗𝑗
1, 𝑥𝑥𝑗𝑗
2, … , 𝑥𝑥𝑗𝑗
𝑇𝑇𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖�,𝐶𝐶𝑖𝑖𝑗𝑗� (2) 476
𝐼𝐼𝑅𝑅𝐼𝐼𝑖𝑖,𝑗𝑗 represents the interaction between brain region 𝑖𝑖 and brain region 𝑗𝑗 , with 𝐶𝐶𝑖𝑖𝑗𝑗 being the 477
characteristic of the connection between brain region 𝑖𝑖 and brain region 𝑗𝑗 , which is estimated with 478
structural connectivity matrices generated from structural connectivity (SC) and global parameter 𝐺𝐺, 479
defined as 𝐶𝐶𝑖𝑖𝑗𝑗= 𝑆𝑆 𝐶𝐶𝑖𝑖𝑗𝑗× 𝐺𝐺 . 𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖
1, 𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖
2, … , 𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖
𝑇𝑇𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 represents the input fMRI signal from region 𝑖𝑖 in time 480
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𝑇𝑇𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖= 10. Assuming that the information transfer between brain regions is additive , meaning that for 481
brain region 𝑖𝑖, the influences from different brain regions are directly summated, then the change in state 482
of a brain region can also be expressed in a simplified form through a state change function, equation (3). 483
𝕏𝕏𝑖𝑖= 𝑁𝑁 ��𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖
1, 𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖
2, … , 𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖
𝑇𝑇𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖�, � 𝐼𝐼 𝑅𝑅 𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝑖𝑖,𝑗𝑗
𝑗𝑗
� (3) 484
In which 𝕏𝕏𝑖𝑖= [𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖
1, 𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖
2, … , 𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖
𝑇𝑇𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜] represents the predicted fMRI signal from region 𝑖𝑖 in time 485
𝑇𝑇𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜= 10. To minimize the complexity of the model and enhance its interpretability, this study utilizes 486
the MLP to construct functions 𝐼𝐼(𝑥𝑥) and 𝑅𝑅(𝑥𝑥), that is, by using simple linear layers and activation 487
functions for construction. The method of constructing 𝐼𝐼(𝑥𝑥) involves multiplying the characteristics of 488
the connecting edges directly by the output of the multilayer perceptron, allowing the characteristics of 489
the connecting edges to influence the information interaction between brain regions, which can be 490
represented by the equation (4) 491
𝐼𝐼𝑅𝑅𝐼𝐼𝑖𝑖,𝑗𝑗= 𝐼𝐼𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚��𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖
1, 𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖
2, … , 𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖
𝑇𝑇𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖�, �𝑥𝑥𝑗𝑗
1, 𝑥𝑥𝑗𝑗
2, … , 𝑥𝑥𝑗𝑗
𝑇𝑇𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖�� × 𝐶𝐶𝑖𝑖𝑗𝑗 (4) 492
In which 𝐼𝐼𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 represents the MLP for 𝐼𝐼(𝑥𝑥). 493
The model inputs are the values of whole -brain fMRI signals for 10 time points, with the output 494
being the predicted values of whole -brain fMRI signals for the next 10 time points. For each sequence 495
of an individual's scan, input values are constructed as 𝑖𝑖𝑛𝑛 𝐺𝐺𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛= 𝕏𝕏𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖,𝑘𝑘 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝐺𝐺 𝑘𝑘= [0,1,2, … , 𝑘𝑘𝑚𝑚𝑎𝑎𝑚𝑚], and 496
truth values as 𝑛𝑛 𝐺𝐺𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛ℎ = 𝕏𝕏𝑜𝑜𝑡𝑡 𝑜𝑜𝑡𝑡, 𝑘𝑘 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝐺𝐺 𝑘𝑘= [10,11,12 , … , 𝑘𝑘𝑚𝑚𝑎𝑎𝑚𝑚]. 𝕏𝕏𝑘𝑘 represente the input fMRI signal in 497
10 time points, which means a 10×360 dimension vector. Therefore, the number of time points for both 498
input and truth values remain the same, equal to the number of input-output pairs 𝑘𝑘𝑚𝑚𝑎𝑎𝑚𝑚. Data from each 499
individual's four fMRI scan sequences are constructed in this manner, forming a dataset for each 500
individual. 501
T
o illustrate the model’s prediction of whole -brain states, we used a three- node system as an 502
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example (Figure 6 ). For each pair of nodes (brain regions), the model takes as input the 10- TR 503
fMRI time series from both regions and their s tructural connectivity, computing the interaction 504
information via 𝐼𝐼(𝑥𝑥). Using this interaction information and the original node states, the predicted 505
state for the next time point in each region is computed with 𝑅𝑅(𝑥𝑥). The predicted states are then 506
compared to the actual fMRI values for the subsequent 10 TRs using the Huber loss, which is 507
backpropagated to update the model parameters. 508
The dataset is split into training, validation, and test sets in an 8:1:1 ratio, with the initial 90% of 509
the data serving as the training and validation sets and the final 10% designated as the test set. During 510
training, the data for both the training and validation sets are randomly shuffled and re-partitioned at each 511
epoch. We use torch_geometric to realize the model and load train data and the optimizer employed is 512
Adam. The loss function utilizes Huber Loss (103) incorporating L1 regularization, which is a loss 513
function that performs well across a variety of fitting tasks(104). The weight of regularization is 1e-4.The 514
dataset is split into training, validation, and test sets in an 8:1:1 ratio, with the initial 90% of the data 515
serving as the training and validation sets and the final 10% designated as the test set. During training, 516
the data for both the training and validation sets are randomly shuffled and re-partitioned at each epoch. 517
We use torch_geometric to realize the model and load train data and the optimizer employed is Adam. 518
The loss function utilizes Huber Loss(103) incorporating L1 regularization, which is a loss function that 519
performs well across a variety of fitting tasks(104). The weight of regularization is 1e-4. 520
Before training, we first randomly select a single individual for model hyperparameter optimization, 521
and this individual does not participate in subse quent training and analysis. During the hyperparameter 522
tuning process, global parameters are set based on previous research experience, with a value of 𝐺𝐺=523
0.6 . Grid search is used to optimize model parameters, including the dimension of information 524
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25
transferred between two brain regions, the output dimension of 𝐼𝐼(𝑥𝑥) , 𝐼𝐼 𝑖𝑖𝐷𝐷𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼∈ [20,30,50,200] , the 525
number of layers in 𝐼𝐼(𝑥𝑥), 𝐿𝐿𝐼𝐼∈ [2,3,4,5,6], the number of layers in 𝑅𝑅(𝑥𝑥), 𝐿𝐿𝐼𝐼∈ [2,3,4,5,6], learning 526
rate 𝐿𝐿 𝐺𝐺∈ [1 × 10−3, 5 × 10−4, 1 × 10−4, 5 × 10−5] , weight decay 𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊∈ [1 × 10−6, 1 × 10−7, 1 ×527
10−8], and total training epochs 𝑒𝑒𝐺𝐺𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑒ℎ𝑠𝑠 ∈[50 ,100,300,400,1000,2000]. The model is selected based 528
on the mean absolute error on the test set, with the final hyperparameters set as 𝐼𝐼 𝑖𝑖𝐷𝐷𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼= 30, 𝐿𝐿𝐼𝐼= 5, 529
𝐿𝐿𝐼𝐼= 5 , 𝐿𝐿𝐺𝐺= 1 × 10−4 , 𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊= 1 × 10−8 . Taking both training effectiveness and time into 530
consideration, the number of epochs is set to 100. 531
Model Validation 532
Mean absolute error 533
The mean absolute error (MAE) serves as a direct measure of the dis similarity between predicted 534
values and true values. Let the predicted value at time 𝑇𝑇 be denoted as 𝑋𝑋𝑇𝑇, and the true value as 𝑌𝑌𝑇𝑇, 535
then 𝑋𝑋𝑇𝑇= [𝑥𝑥𝑇𝑇,1, 𝑥𝑥𝑇𝑇,2, … , 𝑥𝑥𝑇𝑇,𝑁𝑁] and 𝑌𝑌𝑇𝑇= [𝑦𝑦𝑇𝑇,1, 𝑦𝑦𝑇𝑇,2, … , 𝑦𝑦𝑇𝑇,𝑁𝑁], where 𝑁𝑁= 360 is the total number of 536
brain regions, 𝑥𝑥𝑇𝑇,𝑖𝑖 represents the predicted fMRI signal value for brain region 𝑖𝑖 at time 𝑇𝑇 and 𝑦𝑦𝑇𝑇,𝑖𝑖 537
represents the true fMRI signal value for brain region 𝑖𝑖 at time 𝑇𝑇. The MAE is calculated by computing 538
the absolute error across different brain regions and then taking the average of these absolute errors. The 539
specific calculation process is defined by the following equation: 540
𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀= 1
10 � 1
𝑁𝑁�� 𝑥𝑥𝑇𝑇,𝑖𝑖− 𝑦𝑦𝑇𝑇,𝑖𝑖�
𝑁𝑁
𝑖𝑖=1
10
𝑇𝑇=1
(5) 541
The above expression represents the MAE for a single prediction result. To ensure more reliable 542
outcomes, we repeated the process 20 times on the test set, carrying out a total of 200 time points of 543
fMRI signal prediction tasks, and calculated the average MAE to evaluate the model's predictive 544
performance, as showed in equation (6). 545
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𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎= 1
𝐺𝐺� 1
10 � 1
𝑁𝑁�� 𝑥𝑥𝑇𝑇,𝑖𝑖− 𝑦𝑦𝑇𝑇,𝑖𝑖�
𝑁𝑁
𝑖𝑖=1
10
𝑇𝑇=1
(6) 546
In the above equation, 𝐺𝐺= 20 de notes the number of times the computation is repeated. To 547
compare the differences in the fitting effects across various brain regions, this study calculated the 548
average MAE for different brain regions, as shown in equation (7). 549
𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑖𝑖= 1
𝐺𝐺� 1
10 �� 𝑥𝑥𝑇𝑇,𝑖𝑖− 𝑦𝑦𝑇𝑇,𝑖𝑖�
10
𝑇𝑇=1
(7) 550
In equation (7), 𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑖𝑖 represents the average MAE for the i-th brain region. 551
Continuous /segmented function connectivity 552
In this study, functional connectivity (FC) is obtained by calculating the Pearson Correlation 553
Coefficient, whose formula is as follows: 554
𝐺𝐺𝑖𝑖,𝑗𝑗=
∑ �𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖, 𝑜𝑜− 𝑥𝑥𝚤𝚤� ��𝑥𝑥𝑗𝑗, 𝑜𝑜− 𝑥𝑥𝚥𝚥� �𝑖𝑖
𝑜𝑜=1
� ∑ �𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖, 𝑜𝑜− 𝑥𝑥̅�
2𝑖𝑖
𝑜𝑜=1 � ∑ �𝑥𝑥𝑗𝑗, 𝑜𝑜− 𝑥𝑥𝚥𝚥� �
2𝑖𝑖
𝑜𝑜
=1
(8) 555
The term 𝐺𝐺𝑖𝑖,𝑗𝑗 represents the correlation between the fMRI signal generated by brain region 𝑖𝑖 and 556
that by brain region 𝑗𝑗, where 𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖, 𝑜𝑜 denotes the fMRI signal value produced by brain region 𝑖𝑖 at time 557
point 𝑛𝑛 , and 𝑥𝑥𝑗𝑗, 𝑜𝑜 denotes the fMRI signal value produced by brain region 𝑗𝑗 at time point 𝑛𝑛 . The 558
variable n represents the total number of time points used for the calculation. By performing the 559
aforementioned operation between each pair of defined brain regions, the functional connectivity matrix 560
between the brain regions can be obtained. 561
To obtain FC, this study employed two methods for generating the predicted sequences: continuous 562
prediction and segmented prediction. Continuous prediction refers to inputting a 10 TR (time resolution) 563
window, using the output as the next input to obtain the prediction result for the following time window, 564
and then connecting these predictions to form a complete fMRI sequence. Let 𝜒𝜒𝑖𝑖 represent the input 565
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27
sequence, 𝜒𝜒𝑜𝑜𝑘𝑘 denote the output obtained from the k -th iteration, and 𝑆𝑆 𝑒𝑒𝑚𝑚𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑝𝑝 signify the output 566
sequence; this process can be expressed by equation (9): 567
�
𝜒𝜒𝑜𝑜1 = 𝐹𝐹(𝜒𝜒𝑖𝑖; 𝐺𝐺)
𝜒𝜒𝑜𝑜𝑘𝑘+1= 𝐹𝐹�𝜒𝜒𝑜𝑜𝑘𝑘; 𝐺𝐺� 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝐺𝐺 1 < 𝑘𝑘< 𝑇𝑇 −1
𝑆𝑆
𝑒𝑒𝑚𝑚𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑝𝑝= 𝑒𝑒𝑓𝑓 𝑛𝑛𝑒𝑒𝐺𝐺𝑛𝑛𝑒𝑒𝑛𝑛𝐺𝐺𝑛𝑛𝑒𝑒� 𝜒𝜒𝑜𝑜𝑘𝑘 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝐺𝐺 1 < 𝑘𝑘< 𝑇𝑇�
(9) 568
In equation (9), 𝐹𝐹(𝑥𝑥) is the predictive model, 𝐺𝐺 is the brain network, 𝑇𝑇 is the number of cycles 569
set, which is 10 in this study, and concatenate is a function that joins sequences. For functional 570
connectivity validation, 𝜒𝜒𝑖𝑖 is set to the first 10 TR time window from the test set. 571
Segmented prediction refers to dividing a continuous time series into small intervals of 10 TR time 572
windows, inputting each interval into the model to obtain the corresponding prediction, and connecting 573
the different interval predictions chronologically to form a complete fMRI predicted sequence. Let the 574
k-th interval be represented as 𝜒𝜒𝑖𝑖𝑘𝑘, then 𝜒𝜒𝑖𝑖𝑘𝑘= [𝑋𝑋10𝑘𝑘−9, 𝑋𝑋10𝑘𝑘−8, … , 𝑋𝑋10𝑘𝑘], where 𝑋𝑋𝑖𝑖 denotes the fMRI 575
signal values for all brain regions corresponding to the i -th TR of the continuous time series. The 576
prediction process is specifically shown in equation (10): 577
�
𝜒𝜒𝑜𝑜𝑘𝑘= 𝐹𝐹�𝜒𝜒𝑖𝑖𝑘𝑘; 𝐺𝐺� 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝐺𝐺 1 < 𝑘𝑘< 𝑇𝑇
𝑆𝑆
𝑒𝑒𝑚𝑚𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑝𝑝= 𝑒𝑒𝑓𝑓 𝑛𝑛𝑒𝑒𝐺𝐺𝑛𝑛𝑒𝑒𝑛𝑛𝐺𝐺𝑛𝑛𝑒𝑒� 𝜒𝜒𝑜𝑜𝑘𝑘 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝐺𝐺 1 < 𝑘𝑘< 𝑇𝑇�
(10) 578
For this research, the chosen input is the continuous sequence before splitting the series that 579
eliminates time points with head motion greater than 0.25. Starting from the 90th percentile position, a 580
total of 100 TRs of the fMRI sequence is selected, and it is split into 10 groups with every 10 TRs as one 581
group. The full sequence is thereby divided into 10 intervals, T=10. 582
The predicted sequences obtained from the two methods mentioned above both utilize the Pearson 583
correlation method as outlined in equation (8) to calculate FC, which is then compared to the actual 584
functional connectivity matrix. The actual sequence used for calculating the true FC is the one 585
corresponding to the prediction input values; that is, in continuous prediction, the actual sequence starts 586
from the 10 TR fMRI signal used as input and continues for a total of 100 TRs of fMRI sequence values, 587
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28
whereas in segmented prediction), the actual sequence is composed of the actual values corresponding 588
to each segment's output values. After obtaining the true FC and the predicted FC, the Pearson correlation 589
coefficient is used to determine their correlation. The predicted FC is defined as 𝐹𝐹 𝐶𝐶𝑚𝑚𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑝𝑝 and the actual 590
FC as 𝐹𝐹 𝐶𝐶𝑜𝑜𝑡𝑡𝑜𝑜 𝑜𝑜ℎ. For 𝑘𝑘 ∈[𝐺𝐺 𝐺𝐺𝑒𝑒𝑊𝑊, 𝑛𝑛 𝐺𝐺𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛ℎ], 𝐹𝐹 𝐶𝐶𝑖𝑖,𝑗𝑗
𝑘𝑘 denotes the element in the i-th row and j-th column of the 591
FC matrix, representing the functional connectivity of the fMRI signal between the i -th and j- th brain 592
regions. The PCCs (Pearson correlation coefficients) between the predicted and actual FC can then be 593
determined by equation (11). 594
𝑃𝑃𝐶𝐶 𝐶𝐶𝑠𝑠=
∑ �
𝐹𝐹
𝐶𝐶𝑖𝑖,𝑗𝑗
𝑚𝑚
𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡
𝑝𝑝− 𝐹𝐹𝐶𝐶𝑚𝑚𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑝𝑝�����������𝐹𝐹𝐶𝐶𝑖𝑖,𝑗𝑗
𝑜𝑜𝑡𝑡𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜ℎ − 𝐹𝐹𝐶𝐶𝑜𝑜𝑡𝑡𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜ℎ�����������𝑖𝑖, 𝑖𝑖
𝑖𝑖=1,
𝑗𝑗=1
� ∑ �𝐹𝐹 𝐶𝐶𝑖𝑖,𝑗𝑗
𝑚𝑚
𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡
𝑝𝑝− 𝐹𝐹𝐶𝐶𝑚𝑚𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑝𝑝����������
2𝑖𝑖, 𝑖𝑖
𝑖𝑖=1,
𝑗𝑗=1 � ∑ �𝐹𝐹𝐶𝐶𝑖𝑖,𝑗𝑗
𝑜𝑜𝑡𝑡𝑜𝑜
𝑜𝑜ℎ − 𝐹𝐹𝐶𝐶𝑜𝑜𝑡𝑡𝑜𝑜 𝑜𝑜ℎ�����������
2𝑖𝑖
𝑖𝑖=1
(11) 595
The equation (11) specifies that 𝐹𝐹 𝐶𝐶𝑚𝑚𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑝𝑝��������� and 𝐹𝐹 𝐶𝐶𝑜𝑜𝑡𝑡𝑜𝑜 𝑜𝑜ℎ���������� represent the global average values of the 596
predicted and actual FC matrices, respectively. 597
Model Analysis 598
Inter-regional interaction information (IRI) 599
Following model training, initial input data for the testing set were used to generate t he model 600
outputs. As described in the Methods -Models section, input data segmented every 10 tr yield a 30-601
dimensional message. By employing overlapping segmentation, a total of 200 such segments (each 602
comprising 10 tr) were inputted, resulting in message data with dimensions of 30 × 200 × 𝑁𝑁𝑠𝑠𝑜𝑜𝑠𝑠, 𝑡𝑡𝑝𝑝𝑎𝑎𝑡𝑡, 603
where 𝑁𝑁𝑠𝑠𝑜𝑜𝑠𝑠, 𝑡𝑡𝑝𝑝𝑎𝑎𝑡𝑡 indicates the total number of connectivity edges across subjects. PCA was applied to 604
reduce the dimensionality of the obtained data's first component, producing IRI data with dimensions of 605
𝑁𝑁𝑚𝑚𝑝𝑝 × 200 × 𝑁𝑁𝑠𝑠𝑜𝑜𝑠𝑠, 𝑡𝑡𝑝𝑝𝑎𝑎𝑡𝑡, where 𝑁𝑁𝑝𝑝𝑚𝑚 is the number of selected components. In this experiment, most 606
subjects' first principal component (PC1) explained nearly 90% of the variance, so all IRI analyses were 607
based on the dimensionality reduction to PC1, which means 𝑁𝑁𝑚𝑚𝑝𝑝= 1. 608
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29
IRI sent by region 609
For the IRI sent by region (RS‑IRI), we first summed, for each region, the message data across all 610
edges connected to that region along the corresponding dimensions. We then performed PCA on these 611
region‑level message vectors to derive the RS‑IRI with dimensions of 𝑁𝑁𝑚𝑚𝑝𝑝 × 200 × 𝑁𝑁𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑎𝑎𝑖𝑖𝑜𝑜𝑖𝑖. We used 612
the MMP360 atlas so 𝑁𝑁𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑎𝑎𝑖𝑖𝑜𝑜𝑖𝑖= 360. The PC1 accounted for nearly 90% of the total variance, so we 613
adopted PC1 as the RS‑IRI, which means 𝑁𝑁𝑚𝑚𝑝𝑝= 1. 614
Model Application 615
Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) 616
To characterize the oscillatory patterns underlying dynamic inter -regional brain interactions, we 617
applied Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) to the inter-regional information measures to obtain their spectral 618
representations. Specifically, for each individual an d each structural connection, the temporal inter -619
regional interaction measure 𝐼𝐼 𝑅𝑅 𝐼𝐼(𝑛𝑛) w as subjected to the Fourier transform as specified in Equation 620
(12), yielding the frequency domain distribution 𝐼𝐼 𝑅𝑅 𝐼𝐼(𝑘𝑘): 621
𝐼𝐼𝑅𝑅𝐼𝐼(𝑘𝑘) = � 𝐼𝐼 𝑅𝑅 𝐼𝐼(𝑛𝑛)𝑒𝑒−𝑗𝑗2𝜋𝜋𝑘𝑘 𝑜𝑜
𝑇𝑇
𝑇𝑇−1
𝑜𝑜=0
, 𝑘𝑘= 0,1,2, … , 𝑇𝑇 −1 (12) 622
where 𝑇𝑇 represents the total number of time points. In this study, the analysis was performed on 623
𝐼𝐼𝑅𝑅𝐼𝐼(𝑛𝑛) da ta aggregated over 100 TRs, thus 𝑇𝑇= 100. Due to the inherently low sampling rate of the 624
data, spectral analysis was confined to the frequency band of 0.005–0.5 Hz. 625
Group-level comparison between AD patients and controls. 626
For all subjects, we first identified and extracted the common inter-region brain connections present 627
across the entire cohort. The FFT was applied to the time series of these connections for each individual. 628
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30
For each edge (connection) and for each frequency band, the amplitude values were subjected to a two-629
sample t -test to compare the AD and NC group. The resulting p- values from these tests were then 630
corrected using the FDR. Finally, we counted the number of inter -regional brain connections that still 631
exhibited a significant group difference in each frequency band. These connections represent the 632
pathways where the information transfer between the corresponding brain regions shows a significant 633
group-wise difference between the AD and NC groups at that specific frequency band. 634
The association between oscillation amplitude and MMSE scores 635
First, inter-regional brain connections common to all subjects were identified. For each patient in 636
the AD group, the FFT was applied to the time series of these connections. We then calculated Pearson 637
correlation coefficients between the spectral amplitude of each edge within each frequency band and the 638
participants' MMSE scores. Statistical significance was assessed using a permutation test with 1,000 639
iterations. To control for multiple comparisons, p -values were adjusted using the FDR. Only results 640
retaining significance after FDR correction are visualized in the figure. 641
Acknowledgments 642
Funding: 643
National Natural Science Foundation of China 32271146 and 81972160 644
Startup Funds for Top-notch Talents at Beijing Normal University 645
China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2025M772874) 646
Author contributions: 647
Conceptualization: SYL, DBZ, SXL 648
Methodology: SXL, DBZ, TTC 649
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31
Investigation: SXL, DBZ 650
Visualization: SXL 651
Supervision: SYL 652
Writing— original draft: SXL, JCZ, ZKY, JJ 653
Writing—review & editing: SYL, SXL, DBZ, XXD, YRH, LC 654
Competing interests: 655
Authors declare that they have no competing interests. 656
Figures: 657
658
Figure 1 Overall Workflow. A) The IN construction based on neuroimaging data and inter-region interaction (IRI) 659
generation. The model was trained independently for each subject, inputting 10 TRs of BOLD signals, and outputting 660
the predicted 10 TRs of BOLD signals. During prediction, the model can calculate the information transmitted 661
between regions. B) Validation of the predicted fMRI signals, including MAE and FC correlation analysis. The 662
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32
generated MAE map was further correlated with neural variability and receptor map. C) Analysis of IRIs. The 663
message exchanged between each pair of regions, as computed by the model, was reduced via PCA, with the first 664
principal component representing the IRI. The analysis included the IRI on each edge and the total IRI sent by region 665
(see Methods). D) Application of the model to AD patients. The IN model for each individual was computed within 666
the AD and control groups to obtain group- average prediction errors and individual IRIs. The IRIs were subjected 667
to fast Fourier transform (FFT) to reveal oscillation patterns in inter-regional interactions. The amplitudes in different 668
frequency bands were then correlated with MMSE scores. 669
670
671
Figure 2 Model validation results. A) The distribution across the whole brain of the group-averaged MAE (mean 672
absolute error) for model-predicted fMRI signals in each brain region. Drawn by BrainSpace(105). B) Comparisons 673
between FC derived from segmented prediction and continuous prediction with the tru e FC. The left panel shows 674
the distribution of correlation between the FC obtained from segmented prediction and the true FC. The right panel 675
shows the continuous prediction. The details of continuous and segmented prediction methods are provided in the 676
Methods. C) The relationship between MAE and global neural variability . One point denotes a subject. D) The 677
relationship between MAE and regional mean neural variability. E) The relationship between the distribution of 678
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33
MAE and the distribution of the norepinephrine transporter. 679
680
Figure 3 Analysis of inter-regional interaction information (IRI). A) Flowchart for IRI derivation: Initially, 30-681
dimensional time series serve d as interaction messages for each connection. Dimensionality reduction was 682
performed to derive the IRI time series. IRI was quantified for each fiber tract, and the sum of IRI sent from each 683
brain region was termed IRI sent by region (RS -IRI). B) Correlation between IRI variance and fiber length. The 684
error bars for each point represent the standard deviation across subjects for the corresponding connection length 685
and IRI variance. C) D istribution of RS -IRI s trengths across different subnetworks. D) Distribution of RS -IRI 686
variability. 687
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688
Figure 4 Group-level comparison between AD patients and controls. A) The group-averaged prediction MAE 689
maps on the cortical surface for the AD and NC groups. B) The between-group differences in the SD across each 690
dimension of the interaction messages for AD and NC groups, with asterisks indicating statistically significant 691
between-group differences at α = 0.05. C) The brief workflow for obtaining oscillation amplitudes across different 692
frequency bands of the IRI in the AD and NC groups. D) The between-group differences in the oscillation amplitudes 693
described in (A). For each frequency band, the IRI between-group differences are computed and subjected to FDR 694
correction. The top figure shows, at low -, mid -, and high- frequency ranges (0.135, 0.345 and 0.49Hz), the 695
connections exhibiting between-group differences in IRI oscillations and the corresponding brain regions, drawn by 696
BrainNet Viewer(106). The chosen frequency bands correspond to the deep purplish-red bands shown in the figure 697
below. The bottom figure presents the total number of connections between brain regions that show significant 698
between-group differences in oscillation amplitudes across different frequency bands for the IRI. 699
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35
700
Figure 5 The association between oscillation amplitude across different IRI frequency bands and MMSE 701
scores in AD patients. In this figure, the connections and their connecting brain regions for which IRI is significantly 702
correlated with MMSE scores. A permutation test was used, with all results FDR -corrected. The plotted fit line 703
represents a linear (first -order) fit. The connections corresponding to the IRI oscillation amplitudes are projected 704
onto the brain, with the associated connections annotated at the top or on the right side. The numerical labels adjacent 705
to the brain correspond to the indices defined in the MMP atlas. Connected regions are separated by a hyphen (e.g., 706
'ID-ID'). For a complete list of MMP region IDs, see supplementary. 707
708
Figure 6 The overall operational process of the model. The information produced by interactions between brain 709
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36
regions is estimated using the interaction operator 𝐼𝐼(𝑥𝑥), and the predicted values of the node state variables are 710
estimated using the region operator 𝑅𝑅(𝑥𝑥). Taking a three-node network as an example, for the red, yellow, and blue 711
ball representing the brain region nodes, each pair of connected nodes inputs into the interaction operator to obtain 712
the inter-region information (grey ball, 𝐼𝐼𝑅𝑅𝐼𝐼𝑖𝑖,𝑗𝑗), a 30-dimensional vector. For each node, the total sum of IRIs on all 713
the edges directly connected to it is computed as the total input information for that node (black ball). This total 714
input information, along with the node's own signal value, is entered into the region operator, yielding the predicted 715
values of the brain region's dynamic signals for the next 10 time points (concave ball). In the interaction operator, 716
the red and yellow balls represent the signal values of two different brain regions with a connection, and the white 717
ball is the output value of the multilayer perceptron. By multiplying this output with the connection weights (the 718
lines between the red and yellow spheres) and the global parameter, the information value for the interaction between 719
the two brain regions is obtained (grey sphere). In the region operator, the fMRI signal from the brain region itself, 720
along with the information input the region receives, is fed into a multilayer perceptron to compute the region’s 721
subsequent signals. 722
Data Availability Statement 723
The data used in this study are available through the Human Connectome Project (HCP; 724
https://www.humanconnectome.org/study/hcp-young-adult/document/extensively-processed-fmri-data-725
documentation), a publicly available repository. The code and other data used for the analyses will be 726
made publicly available on GitHub upon acceptance of the manuscript. 727
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.CC-BY 4.0 International licenseperpetuity. It is made available under a
preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in
The copyright holder for thisthis version posted January 27, 2026. ; https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.01.26.701662doi: bioRxiv preprint
.CC-BY 4.0 International licenseperpetuity. It is made available under a
preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in
The copyright holder for thisthis version posted January 27, 2026. ; https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.01.26.701662doi: bioRxiv preprint
.CC-BY 4.0 International licenseperpetuity. It is made available under a
preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in
The copyright holder for thisthis version posted January 27, 2026. ; https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.01.26.701662doi: bioRxiv preprint
.CC-BY 4.0 International licenseperpetuity. It is made available under a
preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in
The copyright holder for thisthis version posted January 27, 2026. ; https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.01.26.701662doi: bioRxiv preprint
.CC-BY 4.0 International licenseperpetuity. It is made available under a
preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in
The copyright holder for thisthis version posted January 27, 2026. ; https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.01.26.701662doi: bioRxiv preprint
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