Quantifying the Financial Burden of Heat-Related Hospital Admissions in Switzerland under a Changing Climate: A Scalable Analytical Framework

Quantifying the Financial Burden of Heat-Related Hospital Admissions in Switzerland under a Changing Climate: A Scalable Analytical Framework | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Quantifying the Financial Burden of Heat-Related Hospital Admissions in Switzerland under a Changing Climate: A Scalable Analytical Framework Ario Saeid Vaghefi, Iris Bucher, Chiara Colesanti Senni, Veruska Muccione, and 4 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7721250/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 9 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Background: While heat-related mortality is well-documented, the full economic burden of non-fatal illness remains underexplored. This gap hinders evidence-based health planning in a warming climate. We aimed to quantify the current and projected financial burden of heat-related hospital admissions in Switzerland. Methods: We linked daily hospital admissions (1998–2022) from six Swiss cantons, representing 60\% of the national total, to temperature records using a Distributed Lag Non-Linear Model (DLNM) meta-analysis. Costs were estimated via the Swiss Diagnosis-Related Groups (SwissDRG) tariff system across different disease categories and age groups.Future climate projections were generated using CH2018 climate simulationswith Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, SSP5-RCP8.5). Findings: Historically, extreme heat significantly increased hospital admissions in major Swiss regions, with endocrine/metabolic disorders showing the highest risk (Relative Risk 2.02). The elderly (75+) and children were the most vulnerable populations. The average annual cost of these direct hospitalizations across the six cantons studied was CHF 20.6 million (2013--2022), notably a conservative estimate representing only a fraction of the total economic burden. Future projections show this burden escalating sharply. Under a high-emissions pathway (SSP5-RCP8.5), these direct costs are projected to increase 2.5-fold by the 2060s, with costs for the elderly quintupling.Critically, even with aggressive mitigation (SSP1-RCP2.6), costs are still projected to triple compared to the baseline. This is driven primarily by demographic aging, with climate change acting as a significant amplifier, responsible for 15--30\% of the projected cost increases for the elderly. Interpretation:Our findings from major Swiss regions reveal a substantial and growing financial burden on the healthcare system. Given that these figures represent a \textit{lower bound}, the true costs are likely much higher. This evidence underscores the urgent need for nationally coordinated adaptation policies to protect public health and ensure healthcare sustainability, even as mitigation efforts continue. Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 09 Dec, 2025 Reviews received at journal 08 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 06 Nov, 2025 Reviews received at journal 05 Nov, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 12 Oct, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 06 Oct, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 29 Sep, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 29 Sep, 2025 First submitted to journal 26 Sep, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7721250","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":528385152,"identity":"eb0cb197-0dcd-4f1d-a1d9-e21eb0c69e5c","order_by":0,"name":"Ario Saeid Vaghefi","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Zurich","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ario","middleName":"Saeid","lastName":"Vaghefi","suffix":""},{"id":528385154,"identity":"56074554-7dec-4973-9131-9e2e6d432705","order_by":1,"name":"Iris Bucher","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of 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This gap hinders evidence-based health planning in a warming climate. We aimed to quantify the current and projected financial burden of heat-related hospital admissions in Switzerland.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMethods: We linked daily hospital admissions (1998–2022) from six Swiss cantons, representing 60\\% of the national total, to temperature records using a Distributed Lag Non-Linear Model (DLNM) meta-analysis. \u0026nbsp;Costs were estimated via the Swiss Diagnosis-Related Groups (SwissDRG) tariff system across different disease categories and age groups.Future climate projections were generated using CH2018 climate simulationswith Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, SSP5-RCP8.5).\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFindings: Historically, extreme heat significantly increased hospital admissions in major Swiss regions, with endocrine/metabolic disorders showing the highest risk (Relative Risk 2.02). The elderly (75+) and children were the most vulnerable populations. The average annual cost of these direct hospitalizations across the six cantons studied was CHF 20.6 million (2013--2022), notably a conservative estimate representing only a fraction of the total economic burden. Future projections show this burden escalating sharply. Under a high-emissions pathway (SSP5-RCP8.5), these direct costs are projected to increase 2.5-fold by the 2060s, with costs for the elderly quintupling.Critically, even with aggressive mitigation (SSP1-RCP2.6), costs are still projected to triple compared to the baseline. This is driven primarily by demographic aging, with climate change acting as a significant amplifier, responsible for 15--30\\% of the projected cost increases for the elderly.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eInterpretation:Our findings from major Swiss regions reveal a substantial and growing financial burden on the healthcare system. Given that these figures represent a \\textit{lower bound}, the true costs are likely much higher. 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