Standing on an invasion front: predicting impacts of praying mantids using fuzzy interaction webs

Standing on an invasion front: predicting impacts of praying mantids using fuzzy interaction webs | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Standing on an invasion front: predicting impacts of praying mantids using fuzzy interaction webs Beau G Larkin, Phil Ramsey, Dean E. Pearson This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6597109/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 16 Dec, 2025 Read the published version in Biological Invasions → Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Developing tools for rapidly predicting which introduced species will become invasive is essential for effective management. It’s also notoriously difficult. Quantitative models exist but often require extensive data, precluding timely application. A qualitative modeling approach, Fuzzy Interaction Webs (FIW), offers a practical alternative. FIWs hold the potential to predict impacts, guide early responses, and identify research needs using the limited data commonly available on an invasion front. As a case study, we applied FIW to a European praying mantis (Mantis religiosa) invasion in grassland communities of western Montana, USA. Using available field data, published data, and expert opinion, we modeled mantid impacts on this community. We also explored how abiotic conditions (winter severity) and natural enemies (parasitoids) might independently and interactively influence mantid abundance. Our model predicted that current mantid densities, which are comparatively low, produce negligible impacts. However, increasing mantid abundance could cause general declines across invertebrate guilds, with the greatest impacts at high densities, especially on invertebrate predators, herbivores, and pollinators. Mantids were also predicted to reduce songbird abundance via indirect effects. However, if wild parasitoids establish, our model predicted they would maintain mantids below impact thresholds, even under mild winter conditions. The potential adverse effect of these parasitoids on native mantids is unknown, warranting monitoring, laboratory, and field experiments. We also recommend monitoring M. religiosa abundance to trigger management actions if they approach impact thresholds. Our case study demonstrates the potential usefulness of FIWs as a tool for evaluating invasion fronts. biological control invader impact praying mantis fuzzy interaction web fuzzy cognitive map natural enemies parasitoid Full Text Supplementary Files mantisfiwsupplemental.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 16 Dec, 2025 Read the published version in Biological Invasions → Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 17 Jun, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 04 Jun, 2025 Editor invited by journal 29 May, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 06 May, 2025 First submitted to journal 05 May, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6597109","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":466565266,"identity":"4dbe3eae-c3a2-4a68-8872-fc80bf0565db","order_by":0,"name":"Beau G Larkin","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA2klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACA3YGBsYGAwY5mEACYS3MEC3GpGphYEhsIFqLOTPzs48zCu6kr53dfu3Dzx12eQzsh49uwKfFspnNeOYGg2e52+6cKZ7Zeya5mIEnLe0GXocdZjBmfGBwOHfbjZxkBt62A4kNEjxmBLSwfwZpSTcDamH8S5wWHmPGDQaHE8xupB9mJsoWy2aeYsYZBocNgX5hZpZtS05sI+QXc/b2zYw9fw7Lm91uf8z4ts0usZ/98DG8WhBAgscATLMRpxyshf0B8YpHwSgYBaNgRAEA+a1OhN9QGQcAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8387-7315","institution":"MPG Ranch","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Beau","middleName":"G","lastName":"Larkin","suffix":""},{"id":466565267,"identity":"c441ff39-70f6-409d-bfca-365b6ab75977","order_by":1,"name":"Phil Ramsey","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"MPG Ranch","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Phil","middleName":"","lastName":"Ramsey","suffix":""},{"id":466565268,"identity":"e33a33ce-fce9-48ff-b049-8b76fdb19aa6","order_by":2,"name":"Dean E. 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