The Nexus of Economic Growth, Democracy and Human Development on Environmental Degradation in Eurasian Countries

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In addition, the dynamics of democratic quality and development dimensions have been identified as key determinants that affect environmental quality in various countries. This study aims to analyze how economic growth (GDP), human development index (HDI), and democracy (DM) affect Environmental Degradation (ED), particularly in the form of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Methods This study used panel data from 30 countries, divided into 15 developed and 15 developing countries, over an annual period from 2015 to 2022. The variables used in this study consist of CO2 as the dependent variable, while GDP, HDI, and DM serve as independent variables. Considering the characteristics of larger cross-section data and shorter time-series ranges, we used a dynamic panel model with two-step Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation method to achieve the research objectives. Results The results show that HDI has a negative and significant effect on CO2 emissions in developed countries, but contrasts with developing countries. Democracy is negatively and significantly correlated with CO2 emissions, with the effect being more pronounced in developed countries. The study also confirms the existence of an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) with an inverted U-shaped pattern, supporting the hypothesis in both groups of Eurasian countries. Conclusion The results of the study show that there is a significant dynamic relationship that can be measured by comparing econometric results in Eurasian countries with different levels of development. This study is the first of its kind on the subject in this region, making an important contribution to the empirical literature and enhancing the understanding of the impact of socio-economic-political variables on pollution emissions. 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F1000Research 2025, 14 :1213 ( https://doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.171752.1 ) NOTE: If applicable, it is important to ensure the information in square brackets after the title is included in all citations of this article. Close Copy Citation Details Export Export Citation Sciwheel EndNote Ref. Manager Bibtex ProCite Sente EXPORT Select a format first Track Share ▬ ✚ Research Article The Nexus of Economic Growth, Democracy and Human Development on Environmental Degradation in Eurasian Countries [version 1; peer review: 1 not approved] A Arisman 1 , Ade Syaghofi Ma'arif https://orcid.org/0009-0003-8664-3831 1 , Arief Fitrijanto 1 A Arisman 1 , Ade Syaghofi Ma'arif https://orcid.org/0009-0003-8664-3831 1 , Arief Fitrijanto 1 PUBLISHED 05 Nov 2025 Author details Author details 1 Development Economics, State Islamic University Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta, South Tangerang, Banten, 15412, Indonesia A Arisman Roles: Conceptualization, Funding Acquisition, Project Administration, Resources, Supervision, Validation, Writing – Original Draft Preparation, Writing – Review & Editing Ade Syaghofi Ma'arif Roles: Conceptualization, Data Curation, Formal Analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Project Administration, Software, Visualization, Writing – Original Draft Preparation Arief Fitrijanto Roles: Funding Acquisition, Resources, Supervision, Writing – Review & Editing OPEN PEER REVIEW DETAILS REVIEWER STATUS This article is included in the Research Synergy Foundation gateway. Abstract Background The continuous increase in emissions has exacerbated climate change, which is a concern for everyone on a global scale. In addition, the dynamics of democratic quality and development dimensions have been identified as key determinants that affect environmental quality in various countries. This study aims to analyze how economic growth (GDP), human development index (HDI), and democracy (DM) affect Environmental Degradation (ED), particularly in the form of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Methods This study used panel data from 30 countries, divided into 15 developed and 15 developing countries, over an annual period from 2015 to 2022. The variables used in this study consist of CO2 as the dependent variable, while GDP, HDI, and DM serve as independent variables. Considering the characteristics of larger cross-section data and shorter time-series ranges, we used a dynamic panel model with two-step Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation method to achieve the research objectives. Results The results show that HDI has a negative and significant effect on CO 2 emissions in developed countries, but contrasts with developing countries. Democracy is negatively and significantly correlated with CO 2 emissions, with the effect being more pronounced in developed countries. The study also confirms the existence of an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) with an inverted U-shaped pattern, supporting the hypothesis in both groups of Eurasian countries. Conclusion The results of the study show that there is a significant dynamic relationship that can be measured by comparing econometric results in Eurasian countries with different levels of development. This study is the first of its kind on the subject in this region, making an important contribution to the empirical literature and enhancing the understanding of the impact of socio-economic-political variables on pollution emissions. READ ALL READ LESS Keywords Democracy, Environmental Degradation, Human Development Index, Economic Growth Corresponding Author(s) Ade Syaghofi Ma'arif ( [email protected] ) Close Corresponding author: Ade Syaghofi Ma'arif Competing interests: No competing interests were disclosed. Grant information: This research work was funded by the Faculty of Economics and Business UIN Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta. The funder had no roles in this study. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Copyright: © 2025 Arisman A et al . This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. How to cite: Arisman A, Ma'arif AS and Fitrijanto A. The Nexus of Economic Growth, Democracy and Human Development on Environmental Degradation in Eurasian Countries [version 1; peer review: 1 not approved] . F1000Research 2025, 14 :1213 ( https://doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.171752.1 ) First published: 05 Nov 2025, 14 :1213 ( https://doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.171752.1 ) Latest published: 05 Nov 2025, 14 :1213 ( https://doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.171752.1 ) I. Introduction The development of the modern era has brought material complexity to a steady state in human civilization and made it more effective and efficient in productivity. On the other hand, the environmental dimension is at stake with various forms of Environmental Degradation occurring in the process of such development. The meaning of environmental degradation (ED) basically does not only focus on one aspect of environmental damage, but damage from the biotic and abiotic dimensions of air, soil, and water. 1 In this study, carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) as a greenhouse gas (GHG) emission is a significant element for ED and impacts all aspects of life. 2 , 3 CO 2 is the most concentrated emission of the other GHGs because it is the most produced by anthropogenic factors and causes global warming. 4 This is supported by data from the World Resources Institute 5 which says CO 2 is the most abundant GHG emitted. According to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 6 there has been an anomalous temperature with the highest increase in earth's surface temperature ever recorded in history, which is 1.18 degrees centigrade. Thus, Global warming has reached a critical point and requires urgent global attention. Eurasian Countries (ECs), which are the formal names of the political region incorporated from the two continents of Europe and Asia and divided into five regions, contribute the most to CO 2 in the world. 8 As seen in Figure 1 above, Asia alone contributed 53% of global emissions from upper-middle-income countries and 18% from European countries in 2017. 9 China has consistently been the largest GHG contributor in Eurasia and the world based on its CO 2 data. From 2003-2019, its CO 2 contribution increased from 15.5% share of global CO 2 e total or 4.6 Gt CO 2 e to 26% or 12.7 Gt CO 2 e. 10 The European region is the third largest GHGs emitter in the world, accounting for 4.5 Gt CO 2 e from all sectors (e.g., energy, industrial processes, agriculture, and waste management) in 2015. 11 The high CO 2 emitted by European countries is led by Germany at 745.6 Mt CO 2 e in 2022. However, this is 42.2% lower than the1990 levels of 1287 Mt CO 2 e. 12 Likewise, the European region, especially European Union (EU) countries, has experienced a year-on-year decrease in net emissions. In 2023, its net emissions decreased by 8% compared with the previous year, below 37% of the 1990 level, and has the lowest emissions recorded since 1965. 13 After looking at the actual recorded data, what are the determinants of ED inequality among Eurasian countries? It would be interesting to compare developed and developing countries in Eurasia on the topic of ED inequality, highlighting the motivation for this study. Figure 1. Annual fossil fuel Mt CO 2 emissions 1850-2022 in Eurasia. This time-series data visualization compares the contribution of CO 2 from fossil fuels in Asia ( orange ) and Europe ( blue ), as well as the EU27 ( green ) and China ( yellow ). The graph reflects the economic transformation in both continents, where industrialization in the 20th century triggered a significant increase in emissions. A turning point occurred towards the end of the 20th century, when emissions in Europe and the EU27 began to decline steadily. During the same period, Asia, with China as the main driver, showed a rapid surge in emissions and became the largest emitter in the modern era. Overall, this data illustrates the shift in global emissions centers from Europe and Asia measured from 1850 to 2022, with Eurasia's combined contribution continuing to dominate the global CO 2 emissions landscape. Various factors cause ED, one of which is economic growth. This variable has been commonly used by researchers in any region, highlighting its effect on ED CO 2 and has become challenge in developing countries. 14 , 15 Economic growth often creates complex dilemmas related to resource use, especially for natural resources that can be managed efficiently or inefficiently. 16 Increased economic growth requires raw materials from natural resources to produce output, which has been conventionally done until now. Initially, economic growth tended to increase ED through market mechanisms, such as production, distribution, and consumption, ceteris paribus. 17 , 18 However, over time, sustainable economic growth can reduce negative impacts on the environment, as explained in the theory of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) which illustrates an inverted U-shaped relationship. Therefore, the impact of economic growth is complex, and does not always have a negative influence. With an increase in GRDP accompanied by an awareness of the sustainable utilization of natural resources, environmental quality can also improve. In addition to economic growth, human development also influences environmental degradation (ED). 19 Human development, measured through three dimensions—long and healthy life, knowledge, and standard of living—serves as a benchmark for societal welfare aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). 20 However, this relationship is complex because the trade-offs. In countries with a high HDI, awareness of environmental issues tends to grow along with increased knowledge. However, during periods of rising human development, higher consumption of energy and goods is often accompanied by increased GDP and purchasing power, contributing to ED. 21 This sensitivity is prominent in countries with lower development levels, as in established countries; further, GDP growth has limited effects on HDI. 22 Over time, advanced countries have prioritized environmental concerns through sustainable technologies and energy. While many studies link HDI and CO 2 in the EKC framework, 23 – 25 this study examines the EKC using economic growth as the relationship between HDI and ED remains underexplored in Eurasia. This study also examines the impact of democracy on ED. Recent data show a global decline in democracy levels, falling from 5.55 to 5.23. 26 Western Europe remains the most democratic region, with a score of 8.37 in 2023, despite declining since 2015. In contrast, Central and Southeast Asia have lower democracy scores, averaging at the five indexes, which indicates hybrid regimes. Countries such as Indonesia, Thailand, Myanmar, and the Philippines have faced significant democratic decline since 1998. 27 Democracies promote freedom, equality, and media transparency, allowing citizens to advocate for environmental concerns and openly criticize issues. 28 – 30 These dynamics and their environmental implications are elaborated upon in this study's literature review. Considering the complexities and challenges arising from economic growth, human development, and democracy in relation to ED in Eurasia, this study provides a new perspective. The focus of this study was to analyze how each of these independent variables affects CO 2 emissions as a proxy for ED. In addition, this study examines the existence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) in the Eurasian context and compares its pattern of influence in developed and developing countries, which has never been done by previous empirical studies in Eurasia. Thus, this research is expected to provide deeper insights into the dynamics of ED between countries and encourage a more sustainable and effective policy approach to address global environmental problems. II. Literature review 2.1 Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis This theory, initially introduced by Simon Kuznets in 1955, describes the inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and income inequality. Although it did not originally address environmental issues, Grossman and Krueger 31 later applied this concept to the relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation (ED), identifying a similar pattern. The curve indicates that ED tends to rise during the early stages of economic growth but declines as growth continues. 32 This relationship can be understood from two perspectives: the two phases of early and later economic development or the three stages of pre-industrial, industrial, and post-industrial economies. 33 Based on the Figure 2 presented below, development at each stage is influenced by shifts in production capital, including labor and human capital, in addition to technological innovation. Technology, as an endogenous variable, relies on investments in research and human capital, as outlined in Endogenous Growth Theory. 34 These dynamics facilitate the transition from a negative to positive relationship between economic growth and ED or its substitution variables. 35 Figure 2. U-Shaped of Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) theory assumes that there are two main phases in the relationship between economic development and environmental degradation based on Figure 2 above. The first phase , which reflects conditions in developing countries, is characterized by a positive relationship in which rapid industrialization and per capita GDP growth occur at the expense of environmental quality. This is due to low awareness, regulation, and prioritization of sustainability issues. After reaching a turning point, this relationship reverses. The second phase , which is characteristic of developed countries, shows a negative relationship. Here, more stable economic growth (steady-state), supported by green technological innovation and strict environmental regulations, allows for continued improvement in living standards alongside a reduction in the rate of environmental degradation. Note: In simplified terms, this curve describes two states in a country that initially as GDP per capita increases or in this study is GDP constant will increase CO 2 due to the focus on industrialisation with short-term gains. Then at a point or ‘turning point’, the state of an established country will begin to think in terms of the environment so that an increase in GDP will gradually reduce the level of CO 2 . Source: Agrass and Chapman (1999), 36 Modified by Authors (2025). From various empirical studies, the EKC has been widely used by environmentally oriented researchers and continues to evolve the use of indicators to analyze causality between economic and environmental indicators. However, most often analyzed the relationship between GDP and CO 2 and used approximately 100 articles out of 200 collected from their paper. 33 In recent years, various indicators have been used to empirically analyze the existence of the EKC, such as energy consumption (renewable and non-renewable energy) and GDP. 37 – 39 It should be noted that there is still a gap in the selection of environmental indicators, as not all indicators can be used to show an inverted U-shaped relationship due to the lack of consistent data. This is based on empirical results, and researchers have found that for industrial pollution and human health, it has not been possible to assess the EKC. 7 Furthermore, literature that comprehensively examines the existence of the EKC in Eurasia from the geographical area of 93 countries still does not exist. On average, researchers focus their research in selecting only a few countries 40 or within the scope of smaller regions such as the EU countries 41 , 42 and focus on continents such as Eastern Europe 43 and Central Asia 16 respectively, which proves the existence of a valid EKC. 2.2 Concept and relationship between human development and environmental degradation Human development is a central goal for nations striving to achieve prosperity, aligned with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). 44 , 45 It focuses on creating an environment that enhances human capabilities, allowing individuals to lead longer, healthier, and fulfilling lives. This concept addresses the limitations of traditional economic growth, in which a high GDP does not necessarily translate into comprehensive development. 46 To measure progress, the Human Development Index (HDI) was developed to, assess long and healthy lives, education, and standard of living as indicators of development and welfare. The educational dimension of the HDI is crucial in shaping environmental outcomes. Education fosters ethical awareness and responsibility to protect the environment and prioritize sustainability. 47 , 48 A study conducted in OECD countries shows that improvement in human development enhances environmental sustainability, reducing CO 2 , greenhouse gases, and air pollution. 49 However, the relationship between HDI and environmental degradation (ED) varies. For instance, Li and Xu 24 observed an inverted U-shaped relationship in China but noted a positive correlation between HDI and specific ED aspects, such as waste gas and industrial solid waste. Similar findings were reported by Rahayu and Handri 50 in Indonesia and Polat and Çil 23 in eco-innovative countries, where the HDI exhibited an EKC pattern with ED. Conversely, a study had conducted on 114 countries with a division of 28 developed countries and 86 developing countries, show that the increase in HDI in developed countries has a positive and significant effect on the Environmental Development Index (EPI), but contrasts with the results in developing countries where the effect is not significant. 51 Some studies also report a negative relationship between HDI and environmental quality, attributing it to countries that prioritize conventional economic growth over sustainable practices despite achieving higher levels of development. 19 , 52 This study explores the complex interplay between the HDI and ED across developed and developing Eurasian countries, offering a novel regional perspective. 2.3 Concept and relationship between democracy and environmental degradation Democracy is a system of government that upholds natural rights by allowing citizens to participate in the creation of laws and preserving freedoms such as the right to happiness, life, and speech. 53 , 54 While democracy regulates these freedoms to prevent conflict, it also emphasizes citizen involvement in lawmaking. 55 Democratic freedom includes freedom of speech, religion, freedom from want, and freedom from fear, as outlined by President Roosevelt in 1941. However, the implementation of democracy varies across countries, shaped by cultural, constitutional, economic, and ideological factors. To measure democracy levels, this study uses the Democracy Index from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), which categorizes countries as full democracies, flawed democracies, hybrid regimes, or authoritarian regimes, based on five indicators: electoral processes, government functioning, political participation, political culture, and civil liberties. Democracy significantly contributes to environmental quality by involving the public in shaping policies, ensuring transparency, and upholding accountability. 56 Democratic systems provide citizens with a platform to voice concerns, including environmental issues, that can mitigate environmental degradation. 29 Studies confirm this relationship, such as Zandi and Abidin 57 and Zeinalzadeh, 58 who find that increasing democracy reduces environmental degradation in ASEAN and OIC countries. Moreover, Lindvall and Karlsson 59 reviewed 72 studies and concluded that democracies produce better climate policies than autocracies do. Democracy positively influences environmental quality through political rights, information transparency, electoral accountability, and active environmental interest groups, fostering greater public awareness. 29 , 60 , 61 However, some studies have argued that democracy can negatively impact environmental degradation. Frequent electoral changes can disrupt long-term environmental strategies, creating uncertainty and weakening regulations. 62 , 63 A study shows that the quality of democracy matters, noting that democracies with low corruption indices are less effective in reducing CO 2 emissions than those with higher corruption indices. 64 Socioeconomic challenges in developing countries often deprioritize environmental issues. 65 Thus, the impact of democracy on environmental quality is influenced by institutional strength and socio-political contexts. III. Research methodology 3.1 The econometric model This study uses the EKC hypothesis to explains the inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation. The mathematical function used refers to the research of Jan and Sheikh. 66 This function is written as: (1) E it = f ( Y it , Z it , F i , F t , ε it ) From the function above, E denotes Emission or CO 2 specifically, i for cross-section, which in this study is the country with the value of i = 1,2,…… N , and t denotes time series in years with the value of t = 1,2,……. T. Y describes the income of the country, Z denotes other variables or factors that can affect the EKC hypothesis formula, or CO 2 emissions as the dependent variable. F i denotes the cross-sectional effect, F t denotes the time-series effect, and ε it denotes the error term of the model. Then, to determine the effect of economic growth on environmental degradation, as stated by Stern, 67 a quadratic equation of economic growth was applied. The result will be inverted U-shaped if the results of the quadratic equation are β1 > 0 and β2 < 0. 32 The equation for the fundamental EKC hypothesis is as follows: (2) E it = α i + θ t + β 1 Y it + β 2 Y it 2 + β 3 Z it + ε it Where α denotes country-specific intercepts and θ denotes time-specific intercepts. This equation is the standard form presented by Fredriksson and Neumayer. 68 After obtaining the basic equation, we added the research variables used. CO 2 emissions were taken as a proxy for environmental degradation, which is the dependent variable. Other independent variables included economic growth, human development, and the quality of a country's institutions. The selection of these variables is, of course, full of consideration and follows previous empirical evidence that results in an influence on E it . Thus, the empirical model is as follows (3) lCO 2 it = α i + θ t + β 1 lGDP it + β 2 lGDP it 2 + β 3 lDM it + β 4 lHDI it + ε it From this last equation, where CO 2 is known as the denotation for carbon dioxide and l is log-natural, we added it to all our variables to increase the efficiency of estimation results, unify units with elasticity of interpretation, and overcome normality. 69 Furthermore, GDP is denoted as economic growth, with GDP 2 as the quadratic equation in determining whether there is an inverted U-shaped relationship with CO 2 . Then, there is DM, which is intended for democracy variables that are incorporated from five indicators, as described in the literature review section. Finally, HDI was used for human development. 3.2 Definition and measurement of variables In summary, we have summarized each variable, from its definition and proxy to the secondary data sources we used, presented in Table 1 below. We use fossil CO 2 emissions metrics, which include the measurement of all types of emissions from fossil fuel consumption (e.g., oil, coal, flaring, gas, cement, and bunker fuel), as described by Friedlingstein. 70 We used fossil CO 2 to represent the dependent variable of environmental degradation from various environmental dimensions, although it is more concentrated on direct air pollution. 3 The source we use for this variable is the Global Carbon Budget, which is both related to methodological information and databases. Table 1. Definition and measurement of variables. Variable name Definition Measurement Source Environmental Degradation Reduced environmental quality caused by human activities and natural activities in terms of biotic and abiotic aspects. Fossil CO 2 (exclude land-use and agriculture sources) Global Carbon Budget Economic Growth The added value of the entire value chain of production of an output in the form of goods and services and is measured as a country's economic growth per year. GDP Constant 2015 US$ World Bank Human Development Human development is a development concept that focuses on the quality of human life, beyond economic growth, by giving individuals the freedom to live a better life according to their values. Human Development Index (HDI) UNDP Democracy Democracy is a system of government that preserves the transformation of natural rights that is valuable in that by allowing subjects of the law to participate in its creation. Democracy Index (electoral process, functioning of government, political participation, political culture, and civil liberties indicator) Economist Intelligent Unit (EIU) For GDP, we use constant GDP with 2015 as the base year and US$ currency. As the focus in seeing the real growth of a country is better by looking at the quantity of goods and services and fulfilling consumption needs without being affected by price fluctuations or inflation, a constant GDP is the right choice. 71 We choose constant GDP as a proxy for economic growth, with a focus on the industrial aspect of CO 2 environmental degradation. The source of this constant GDP data is the World Bank. Furthermore, the Human Development Index variable is used as a proxy for human development in a country. Our variable is used to measure an individual's quality of life, which cannot be described by GDP per capita alone or by other monetary approaches. The measurement of the HDI is dimensionally used by all countries in the world, namely, long and healthy life, education, and standard of living, but the constituent indicators and the weight of each indicator can differ from one country to another according to the circumstances of the problems faced. 20 The source was used to obtain the data. Finally, we use the Democracy Index variable to represent the quality of a country’s government. This variable consists of five indicators of democracy: electoral process and pluralism, government functioning, political participation, political culture, and civil liberties. The index calculation that has been combined from the five indicators classifies countries in the world based on four groups: full democracy, flawless democracy, hybrid regime, and authoritarian regime. The data for this Democracy Index were sourced from the EIU. 3.3 Data and methodology In this study, we used panel data from selected 30 countries in Eurasia for a range of years between 2015 and 2022. Statistically, this equals the sum of ( N = 30) and ( T = 8). A purposive sampling technique was used in this study to determine whether the countries in Eurasia are too large, or too small, or have significant internal problems, such as wars and politics, we selectively consider them to avoid error factors that interfere with the results of the model's influence. The identification of the variables tends to be dynamic from year to year, which means that the variables can be influenced by lag variables or the previous time. Therefore, dynamic panel data regression is appropriate as an estimation method tool with the following model: (4) y it = α i + β ′ it + yy it − 1 + u it + ε it The Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) approach proposed by Arellano and Bond was utilized to address endogeneity and inconsistency issues, with an emphasis on the System GMM (Sys-GMM) method developed by Blundell and Bond. The Sys-GMM combines first-difference and level equations to improve instrument strength and effectively handle reverse causality. This study uses the two-step Sys-GMM approach and adds instrument variables (iv), which is a robust method consistent with prior empirical studies. 72 The Hansen-J and Arellano-Bond tests were conducted to ensure model validity by checking for over-identifying restrictions and no second-order serial correlation (AR(2)). Additionally, Pesaran’s CD-Test was used to examine cross-sectional dependence across panel groups as the panel setup met the N > T criterion. 73 Considering the persistent nature of atmospheric CO 2 and its long-term impact, we treat it as an endogenous variable and include lags up to three periods (1–3 years) in the model, following. 74 While adding lags improves the model's dynamics, it may reduce the explanatory power of the other independent variables, representing a trade-off. Expanding the sample size in future research could address this limitation. 75 IV. Findings and discussion 4.1 Descriptive statistics, cross-sectional dependence hypothesis Before estimating the model, we present the descriptive statistics of the research variables in Table 2 . This includes the total number of observations (OBS), standard deviation (SD), and minimum (Min) and maximum (Max) values for each variable, location, and year. The significance level (α) was set at 5%, where a hypothesis was considered significant if the p-value was below this threshold ( H 1 ) and insignificant if it was above ( H 0 ). However, for the EKC hypothesis, the significance criteria differ, as explained in the econometric model section. Table 2. Descriptive statistics and cross-sectional dependence test. Variable CD-Test ( p -value) Obs Mean SD Min Max lCO 2 3.151 *** 240 4.856 1.406 1.932 7.947 lGDP 47.143 *** 240 5.882 1.476 2.669 8.430 lGDP 2 47.167 *** 240 36.770 16.718 7.123 71.065 lHDI 48.544 *** 240 -0.220 0.176 -0.644 -0.033 lDEM 1.543 240 1.753 0.527 -0.527 2.246 *** means the variable is significant at the 1% level, ** means significant at the 5% level, and * means significant at the 10% level. Obs is the number of observations, SD means standard deviation, Min is the minimum value and Max means the maximum value of observation. For cross-sectional dependence (CD-Test), we reject the null hypothesis ( H 0 ) for variables lCO 2 , lGDP, lGDP2, and lHDI but accept it for lDEM. Descriptive statistics indicate 240 balanced panel observations, ensuring no variation in the sample size across the variables. A multicollinearity test was conducted on all the independent variables, as shown in Table 3 . The correlation values for each variable remained within the acceptable ranges. While the correlation between GDP and GDP 2 is relatively high, this is typical in traditional EKC tests. 76 If multicollinearity is present, long- and short-term elasticity coefficients could be used as an alternative method, as suggested by Narayan. 77 However, as indicated by Zainodin and Yap, 78 correlation values below 0.75 confirm that multicollinearity is not a concern in this study. Table 3. Correlation amongst independent variables. lGDP lGDP 2 lHDI lDEM lGDP 1 lGDP 2 0.677 1 lHDI 0.489 0.456 1 lDEM 0.619 0.585 0.578 1 4.2 Discussion of findings First, we assessed potential endogeneity factors in the model using the Hansen-J test to evaluate instrument validity and ensure no over-identifying restrictions or heteroscedasticity issues. The Arellano-Bond test was then applied to confirm the absence of second-order serial correlation in errors (AR2). As shown in Table 4 , the Hansen-J test results for lags 1-3 consistently fall between 0.05 and 0.80, indicating optimal model validity, and the null hypothesis (H0) is accepted. 79 Similarly, the AR2 test results for lags 1-3 exceed the threshold of 0.05, supporting the absence of serial correlation and the acceptance of H0. Table 4. The Two-Step Sys-GMM All Countries estimates and endogeneity checks. Variables 1-Year lag 2-Years lag 3-Years lag (1) (2) (3) CO 2 CO 2 CO 2 Lag CO 2 1.015 *** 0.870 *** 0.694 *** (174.83) (199.08) (66.68) Lag2 CO 2 0.128 *** 0.269 *** (37.33) (27.73) Lag3 CO 2 0.0249 *** (2.71) Economic Growth (lGDP) 0.0453 *** 0.0107 * 0.0562 *** (4.50) (1.80) (4.53) Economic Growth 2 (lGDP 2 ) -0.00494 *** -0.00111 ** -0.00377 *** (-6.14) (3.40) (-5.26) Human Development (lHDI) -0.197 *** -0.173 *** -0.189 *** (-12.76) (-17.20) (-11.61) Democracy (lDEM) -0.00865 -0.0127 *** -0.0378 *** (-1.50) (-4.02) (-6.30) Constanta (cons) -0.170 *** -0.0241 ** -0.109 *** (-6.27) (-2.15) (-4.08) AR(1) 0.106 0.121 0.085 AR(2) 0.164 0.363 0.119 Hansen Test 0.363 0.247 0.128 Observation 210 180 150 Number of Countries 30 30 30 *** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1. All independent variables are treated as exogenous with appropriate instrumental variables and lagged explanatory variables consistently address endogeneity issues. 80 Table 4 presents the estimation results for lag 3. However, the variance in errors remains uncontrolled, owing to the diverse characteristics of the countries studied. This may stem from imbalances and unique developmental differences between developing and developed countries in Asia and Europe, as outlined in the Background section. Thus, the findings represent a general overview of the Eurasian region, without distinguishing the effects specific to developed or developing countries. The information that can be utilized from Table 4 is that the lag CO 2 at all levels is significant at 1% for all columns. Further, the coefficient for GDP 2 is consistently negative and significant across columns, with positive and significant GDP values for Models 1 and 3. We can confirm that, in general, countries in Eurasia have achieved an inverted U-shaped EKC relationship between economic growth and CO 2 , meaning that there is a decoupling process in the region. This finding supports the results of previous empirical studies that prove the existence of the EKC between economic growth and CO 2 in Eurasian countries, Europe, and Asia in general. 41 , 43 Then, the HDI variable is consistently negative and significant at the 1% level in all columns and lag levels. This means that increasing human development in Eurasian countries tends to reduce. This finding is supported by research from. 49 , 50 , 81 Democracy also consistently has a negative and significant effect, at least at the 5% level of the reasonable limit set by this study. This shows that countries with higher levels of democracy tend to suppress CO 2 levels in Eurasia in general, which is also supported by previous empirical studies. 57 – 59 As previously explained, we conducted separate analyses for developing and developed countries in Eurasia using balanced total samples to minimize errors and provide clearer insights, as shown in Table 5 . The estimates confirm a clearer direction of influence, with GDP having a positive significant effect, and its quadratic term showing a negative and significant effect. This confirms the existence of the EKC in both groups, suggesting progress towards environmentally friendly industries and the growth of the service sector. The reduction in CO 2 emissions was more pronounced in developed countries, as indicated by the larger coefficients. The literature supports this trend, attributing it to ambitious CO 2 reduction efforts through sustainable energy transitions and the gradual phase-out of conventional industries. 82 These efforts highlight the need for technology and knowledge transfer from developed to developing countries to facilitate energy transitions, as suggested by Kohnert, 83 who emphasized similar solutions for sub-Saharan Africa. This finding aligns with previous research indicating that developing countries are more vulnerable to environmental degradation owing to disparities in development and infrastructure. 15 , 84 Table 5. The Two-Step Sys-GMM Developing and Developed Countries Estimates. Variables Developing Countries Developed Countries 1-Year lag 2-Years lag 3-Years lag 1-Years lag 2-Years lag 3-Years lag (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) CO 2 CO 2 CO 2 CO 2 CO 2 CO 2 Lag CO 2 0.00160 *** 0.000791 *** 0.000108 *** 0.00243 *** 0.000981 *** -0.000126 (14.73) (12.20) (3.58) (7.70) (7.29) (-0.26) Lag2 CO 2 0.000720 *** 0.000715 *** 0.00168 *** -0.00290 ** (14.21) (6.58) (6.23) (2.50) Lag3 CO 2 0.000696 *** 0.00568 *** (3.75) (3.42) Economic Growth (lGDP) 2.700 *** 2.760 *** 2.901 *** 5.813 *** 4.902 *** 5.0661 *** (19.05) (21.55) (5.40) (7.64) (4.97) (4.75) Economic Growth 2 (lGDP 2 ) -0.205 *** -0.208 *** -0.221 *** -0.393 *** -0.326 *** -0.342 *** (-13.10) (-15.27) (-3.61) (-7.60) (-4.74) (-4.43) Human Development (lHDI) 0.971 ** 0.875 * 1.307 *** -14.845 *** -11.781 *** -11.645 *** (2.27) (1.66) (2.61) (-12.12) (-3.96) (-3.65) Democracy (lDEM) -0.475 *** -0.472 *** -0.499 *** -0.581 *** -0.670 *** -0.739 *** (-5.70) (-5.46) (-5.74) (-4.61) (-5.81) (-6.30) Constanta (cons) -2.736 *** -2.952 *** -3.0794 *** -16.540 *** -13.098 *** -13.367 *** (-7.98) (-8.02) (-2.78) (-6.20) (-3.75) (-3.58) Observation 105 90 75 105 90 75 Number of Country 15 15 15 15 15 15 *** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1. Furthermore, the Human Development Index section provides a consistent but contrasting relationship between developing and developed countries in Eurasia, with significant results at the 1% level and at the level of three CO 2 lags. This shows that an increase in the HDI in developing Eurasian countries triggers an increase in the CO 2 trend. This is in contrast to the situation in developed countries, where the increase in HDI is consistent in a situation that can reduce CO 2 . First, on average, developing countries are not yet inclusively using green energy for households, especially in Asia and SSA. 85 Thus, their limited level of technology and industrial structure will increase their carbon footprint as HDI rises, with improved income, infrastructure, and consumption. 86 For instance, Kuwait and Romania, despite having HDI values above 0.8, continue to show rising CO 2 emissions due to inefficient industrial structures reliant on fossil energy. 87 Conversely, developed Eurasian countries, with HDI values ranging from 0.8 to 0.9, demonstrate a decoupling of CO 2 emissions from human development. This trend is supported by established infrastructure and increased environmental awareness, particularly through education, as shown in previous study. 23 The last estimation analysis on the democracy variable consistently has a negative effect on CO 2 emissions in both developed and developing countries in Eurasia and is significant at the 1% level. This can be confirmed based on the estimation results that the more democratic a country is, the much better is the reduction of CO 2 levels than countries with authoritarian characteristics. 56 However, this result is contrary to, 88 who examined 37 OECD Countries. Furthermore, our findings that democracy decreases CO 2 is more pronounced in developed countries than in developing countries, as seen from the coefficient value. This is acceptable given that the classification of full democracy with a score of 8.0 – 10.0 tends to be in developed Eurasian countries. 26 V. Conclusion Environmental degradation has become a critical global crisis and require urgent attention. This study examined the dynamic relationship between economic growth, HDI, and democracy using CO 2 as a proxy for environmental degradation (ED) in Eurasian countries. Using the EKC hypothesis framework, we clarified the complex interplay between these variables by separately analyzing developed and developing countries in Eurasia using robust methods. Our findings confirm the presence of the EKC in both groups within the context of industrial sector transitions, indicating that Eurasian countries are gradually shifting towards environmentally conscious industrial practices. While HDI generally shows a decreasing effect on CO 2 intensity across Eurasia, splitting the analysis reveals contrasting results. In developing countries, increasing HDI positively influences CO 2 , whereas in developed countries, it reduces emissions. Similarly, democracy consistently shows a negative effect on CO 2 across all models, highlighting that democratic systems are more effective at reducing emissions than authoritarian regimes. Based on our findings, the implementation of ambitious policies towards the transition to sustainable industrial practices is crucial, especially for developing countries. The results of developed countries can be used as best-practice models and provide intensive support, including technology and knowledge transfer, to accelerate this transition. Achieving these goals requires synchronization among stakeholders, especially regulators. Thus, a form of transparent institution, role accountability, and strong rule of law without overriding the rights of citizens' capabilities has become an integral part of a successful or unimplemented transition strategy. We hope that future research could explore additional variables, extend the time frame and regional scope by considering stationarity, and apply alternative methods to deepen the understanding of socio-economic dynamics in Eurasia. Ethical statement Ethical approval and consent were not required. Data availability Figshare: The Nexus of Economic Growth, Democracy and Human Development on Environmental Degradation in Eurasian Countries.xlsx. https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.29370425.v3 (Arisman, A., Ma'arif, A. S., & Fitrijanto, A. (2025)). 89 The project contains the following underlying data: • Dataset.xlsx (Panel Data contains 240 observations total) Data are available under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license (CC BY 4.0 Public domain dedication). References 1. Maurya PK, Ali SA, Ahmad A, et al. : An introduction to environmental degradation: Causes, consequence and mitigation. Environmental Degradation: Causes and Remediation Strategies. 2020; 1–20. Publisher Full Text 2. Soon W, Baliunas SL, Robinson AB, et al. : Environmental effects of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide. Energy and Environment. 1999; 10 (5): 439–468. Publisher Full Text 3. 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Arisman A, Ma'arif AS, Fitrijanto A: The Nexus of Economic Growth, Democracy and Human Development on Environmental Degradation in Eurasian Countries.xlsx (Version 3). figshare. 2025. Publisher Full Text Comments on this article Comments (0) Version 1 VERSION 1 PUBLISHED 05 Nov 2025 ADD YOUR COMMENT Comment Author details Author details 1 Development Economics, State Islamic University Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta, South Tangerang, Banten, 15412, Indonesia A Arisman Roles: Conceptualization, Funding Acquisition, Project Administration, Resources, Supervision, Validation, Writing – Original Draft Preparation, Writing – Review & Editing Ade Syaghofi Ma'arif Roles: Conceptualization, Data Curation, Formal Analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Project Administration, Software, Visualization, Writing – Original Draft Preparation Arief Fitrijanto Roles: Funding Acquisition, Resources, Supervision, Writing – Review & Editing Competing interests No competing interests were disclosed. Grant information This research work was funded by the Faculty of Economics and Business UIN Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta. The funder had no roles in this study. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Article Versions (1) version 1 Published: 05 Nov 2025, 14:1213 https://doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.171752.1 Copyright © 2025 Arisman A et al . This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Download Export To Sciwheel Bibtex EndNote ProCite Ref. Manager (RIS) Sente metrics Views Downloads F1000Research - - PubMed Central info_outline Data from PMC are received and updated monthly. - - Citations open_in_new 0 open_in_new 0 open_in_new SEE MORE DETAILS CITE how to cite this article Arisman A, Ma'arif AS and Fitrijanto A. The Nexus of Economic Growth, Democracy and Human Development on Environmental Degradation in Eurasian Countries [version 1; peer review: 1 not approved] . F1000Research 2025, 14 :1213 ( https://doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.171752.1 ) NOTE: If applicable, it is important to ensure the information in square brackets after the title is included in all citations of this article. COPY CITATION DETAILS track receive updates on this article Track an article to receive email alerts on any updates to this article. TRACK THIS ARTICLE Share Open Peer Review Current Reviewer Status: ? Key to Reviewer Statuses VIEW HIDE Approved The paper is scientifically sound in its current form and only minor, if any, improvements are suggested Approved with reservations A number of small changes, sometimes more significant revisions are required to address specific details and improve the papers academic merit. Not approved Fundamental flaws in the paper seriously undermine the findings and conclusions Version 1 VERSION 1 PUBLISHED 05 Nov 2025 Views 0 Cite How to cite this report: Tol RS. Reviewer Report For: The Nexus of Economic Growth, Democracy and Human Development on Environmental Degradation in Eurasian Countries [version 1; peer review: 1 not approved] . F1000Research 2025, 14 :1213 ( https://doi.org/10.5256/f1000research.189398.r444697 ) The direct URL for this report is: https://f1000research.com/articles/14-1213/v1#referee-response-444697 NOTE: it is important to ensure the information in square brackets after the title is included in this citation. Close Copy Citation Details Reviewer Report 06 Jan 2026 Richard SJ Tol , University of Sussex, Falmer, England, UK Not Approved VIEWS 0 https://doi.org/10.5256/f1000research.189398.r444697 There are too many papers on the EKC. This one does not add anything. It is based on a short period and a small number of countries. Nothing much can be learned from that, and certainly nothing new. ... Continue reading READ ALL There are too many papers on the EKC. This one does not add anything. It is based on a short period and a small number of countries. Nothing much can be learned from that, and certainly nothing new. The selection of countries induced selection bias. Omitting countries may well have affected your results, Is the work clearly and accurately presented and does it cite the current literature? Yes Is the study design appropriate and is the work technically sound? Yes Are sufficient details of methods and analysis provided to allow replication by others? Partly If applicable, is the statistical analysis and its interpretation appropriate? No Are all the source data underlying the results available to ensure full reproducibility? Yes Are the conclusions drawn adequately supported by the results? Yes Competing Interests: No competing interests were disclosed. Reviewer Expertise: environmental economics I confirm that I have read this submission and believe that I have an appropriate level of expertise to state that I do not consider it to be of an acceptable scientific standard, for reasons outlined above. Close READ LESS CITE CITE HOW TO CITE THIS REPORT Tol RS. Reviewer Report For: The Nexus of Economic Growth, Democracy and Human Development on Environmental Degradation in Eurasian Countries [version 1; peer review: 1 not approved] . F1000Research 2025, 14 :1213 ( https://doi.org/10.5256/f1000research.189398.r444697 ) The direct URL for this report is: https://f1000research.com/articles/14-1213/v1#referee-response-444697 NOTE: it is important to ensure the information in square brackets after the title is included in all citations of this article. COPY CITATION DETAILS Report a concern Respond or Comment COMMENT ON THIS REPORT Comments on this article Comments (0) Version 1 VERSION 1 PUBLISHED 05 Nov 2025 ADD YOUR COMMENT Comment keyboard_arrow_left keyboard_arrow_right Open Peer Review Reviewer Status info_outline Alongside their report, reviewers assign a status to the article: Approved The paper is scientifically sound in its current form and only minor, if any, improvements are suggested Approved with reservations A number of small changes, sometimes more significant revisions are required to address specific details and improve the papers academic merit. Not approved Fundamental flaws in the paper seriously undermine the findings and conclusions Reviewer Reports Invited Reviewers 1 Version 1 05 Nov 25 read Richard SJ Tol , University of Sussex, Falmer, UK Comments on this article All Comments (0) Add a comment Sign up for content alerts Sign Up You are now signed up to receive this alert Browse by related subjects keyboard_arrow_left Back to all reports Reviewer Report 0 Views copyright © 2026 Tol R. This is an open access peer review report distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. 06 Jan 2026 | for Version 1 Richard SJ Tol , University of Sussex, Falmer, England, UK 0 Views copyright © 2026 Tol R. This is an open access peer review report distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. format_quote Cite this report speaker_notes Responses (0) Not Approved info_outline Alongside their report, reviewers assign a status to the article: Approved The paper is scientifically sound in its current form and only minor, if any, improvements are suggested Approved with reservations A number of small changes, sometimes more significant revisions are required to address specific details and improve the papers academic merit. Not approved Fundamental flaws in the paper seriously undermine the findings and conclusions There are too many papers on the EKC. This one does not add anything. It is based on a short period and a small number of countries. Nothing much can be learned from that, and certainly nothing new. The selection of countries induced selection bias. Omitting countries may well have affected your results, Is the work clearly and accurately presented and does it cite the current literature? Yes Is the study design appropriate and is the work technically sound? Yes Are sufficient details of methods and analysis provided to allow replication by others? Partly If applicable, is the statistical analysis and its interpretation appropriate? No Are all the source data underlying the results available to ensure full reproducibility? Yes Are the conclusions drawn adequately supported by the results? Yes Competing Interests No competing interests were disclosed. Reviewer Expertise environmental economics I confirm that I have read this submission and believe that I have an appropriate level of expertise to state that I do not consider it to be of an acceptable scientific standard, for reasons outlined above. reply Respond to this report Responses (0) Tol RS. Peer Review Report For: The Nexus of Economic Growth, Democracy and Human Development on Environmental Degradation in Eurasian Countries [version 1; peer review: 1 not approved] . F1000Research 2025, 14 :1213 ( https://doi.org/10.5256/f1000research.189398.r444697) NOTE: it is important to ensure the information in square brackets after the title is included in this citation. The direct URL for this report is: https://f1000research.com/articles/14-1213/v1#referee-response-444697 Alongside their report, reviewers assign a status to the article: Approved - the paper is scientifically sound in its current form and only minor, if any, improvements are suggested Approved with reservations - A number of small changes, sometimes more significant revisions are required to address specific details and improve the papers academic merit. 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