Igniting Growth Surges: Lessons from the Past

``What, exactly" can countries do to initiate an episode of growth surge? I identify 132 episodes of growth surges in 117 countries over the period 1980-2010. I find that disproportionate improvements in macroeconomic stability and external factors and endowments favor a higher probability of growth surge. They are followed by structural reforms, investments, labor and productivity, trade diversification and quality, and lastly by institutions. Countries can maximize the likelihood of igniting growth surges if they jointly achieve significant improvements in macroeconomic stability and external conditions and endowments. Also, macroeconomic stability, and to some extent, external factors and endowments may be considered as dominant strategies to ignite a growth surge, as no improvements in these determinants, generally constraint the other determinants to have a smaller effect on growth surges. There is a notable difference between decades, regions, and levels of development, which calls for careful tailoring of policies aiming at igniting growth surges to local conditions. JEL Classification: O11 , O47 , F43 , E65