The Netherlands may lose up to 40% of its plant species due to climate change

The increasing CO 2 in the Earth’s atmosphere is directly increasing global temperatures. Plant species around the world must directly and indirectly respond to this temperature change, either by adapting, migrating, or perishing. To evaluate the effect of temperature rises on European plant species, we combined vegetation data with the local average temperature to estimate the temperature range per species. Subsequently, for every 1°C increase in average temperature, we determined the species currently occurring in the Netherlands for which the expected temperature is outside its range, but also the species currently absent from the country for which the expected temperature has moved within its range. We show that up to 40% (427 out of 1239) of the species currently occurring in the Netherlands may become locally extinct if the average annual temperature rises from 9°C in 1950 to 14°C in 2085. We also show that over 1000 species potentially could arrive as climate refugees; however, it is questionable whether these species could reach the Netherlands due to limitations in dispersal capacity. Moreover, these species will have to adapt to the pre-existing ecosystems. Results have major implication for both nature policy as well as nature management.