Social Ties, Mobility, and COVID-19 spread in Japan

Abstract Why are some communities documenting higher case loads of COVID-19 infections than others? Past studies have linked the resilience of communities against crisis to their social vulnerability and to the capacity of local governments to provide public goods and services like health care. Disaster studies, which frequently examine the effect of social ties and mobility, may help illuminate the current spread of COVID-19. We model the occurrence of new cases from February 17 to May 29 using 4841 prefecture-day observations, paired with daily tallies of aggregate Facebook user movement among neighborhoods. This preliminary study of Japanese prefectures finds that communities with strong bridging and linking social ties start out more susceptible to COVID-19 spread, but their rates quickly decrease over time compared to communities with stronger intra-group ties. These results imply that residents’ participation in civil society and trust in officials affect their adoption of new health behaviors like physical distancing, improving their capacity to respond and adapt to crisis. Though bridging and linking communities suffered more early on, they adapted better to new conditions, demonstrating greater resilience to the pandemic. We anticipate this study to be a starting point for broader studies of the effect of social ties and mobility on response to COVID-19 worldwide, verifying what kinds of social networks we should invest in to adapt to this pandemic.