Economic Development, Natural Resource Rents in Africa: A spatial Analysis

Economic Development, Natural Resource Rents in Africa: A spatial Analysis | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Economic Development, Natural Resource Rents in Africa: A spatial Analysis Karim Traoré, Alassane Soma, Ninquassau V.A Koassi, Mahamady Kontiliguissonko, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8670085/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This paper analyzes the relationship between natural resources and economic development in Africa through spatial econometric models applied to World Bank data covering 53 countries. Using variables such as GDP per capita, Human Capital Index (HCI), and Overall Governance (OG), the study combines OLS, SAR, SEM, and SDM approaches to capture spatial patterns. The results show that natural resources have a significant negative effect on economic development, confirming the persistence of the “resource curse” across the continent. While the OLS model suggests positive contributions of governance and human capital, accounting for spatial dependence alters these effects: the SAR model shows no robust significance, the SEM model confirms the importance of HCI, and the SDM highlights the negative role of resource rents. In addition, exports contribute positively to growth, whereas population size and physical capital investment exert downward pressure on GDP per capita. Overall, the findings stress that natural resources alone do not drive development, and that strengthening governance and human capital is essential to foster sustainable economic growth in Africa. JEL: O13, Q32, R12 GDP Natural resources Spatial Analysis Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8670085","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":591322616,"identity":"09025cbf-d926-4787-be5e-9a0b0b77e08d","order_by":0,"name":"Karim Traoré","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Karim","middleName":"","lastName":"Traoré","suffix":""},{"id":591322617,"identity":"8912ccf5-23b7-4ec7-9177-d49cb3a30fc8","order_by":1,"name":"Alassane Soma","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Alassane","middleName":"","lastName":"Soma","suffix":""},{"id":591322618,"identity":"96e30877-90a7-414b-9795-141e2c401859","order_by":2,"name":"Ninquassau V.A Koassi","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"","institution":"Université Félix Houphouët-Boigny","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ninquassau","middleName":"V.A","lastName":"Koassi","suffix":""},{"id":591322619,"identity":"59a32b16-36f6-468f-a280-46fc41d7f304","order_by":3,"name":"Mahamady Kontiliguissonko","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mahamady","middleName":"","lastName":"Kontiliguissonko","suffix":""},{"id":591322620,"identity":"3c7b475e-52d6-4ba1-89a6-60ab77161231","order_by":4,"name":"Daouda Traoré","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Daouda","middleName":"","lastName":"Traoré","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-01-22 13:09:51","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8670085/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8670085/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":102962689,"identity":"97aef486-9c4a-4dc7-bc77-03375b933d0e","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-19 04:10:36","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1592345,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"EconomicdevelopmentnaturalresourcerentsinAfrica.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8670085/v1_covered_b1d3f443-6df0-4cf2-88dd-3a4e7c95b426.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Economic Development, Natural Resource Rents in Africa: A spatial Analysis","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"GDP, Natural resources, Spatial Analysis","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8670085/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8670085/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis paper analyzes the relationship between natural resources and economic development in Africa through spatial econometric models applied to World Bank data covering 53 countries. Using variables such as GDP per capita, Human Capital Index (HCI), and Overall Governance (OG), the study combines OLS, SAR, SEM, and SDM approaches to capture spatial patterns. The results show that natural resources have a significant negative effect on economic development, confirming the persistence of the “resource curse” across the continent. While the OLS model suggests positive contributions of governance and human capital, accounting for spatial dependence alters these effects: the SAR model shows no robust significance, the SEM model confirms the importance of HCI, and the SDM highlights the negative role of resource rents. In addition, exports contribute positively to growth, whereas population size and physical capital investment exert downward pressure on GDP per capita. 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