New models for predicting mortality and poor prognosis after supratentorial intracerebral hemorrhage

Background: The study aimed to determine the multiple related risk factors and their prognostic significance of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and to develop models for predicting poor outcome and mortality. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 141 consecutive patients with acute ICH presenting to the neurological department of Tongji Hospital from December 2016 to April 2018. Independent predictors of 6-month prognostic significance were identified by logistic regression, and discriminative performance was assessed by using the area under curve (AUC) of receiver-operating characteristic (ROC). Models of poor prognosis and mortality were developed. Results: Independent predictors of poor outcome (mRS≥3) were as follows: NIHSS score, D-Dimer, mixed hematoma density, irregular hematoma shape, ICH volume, cerebral cortical atrophy and midline shift. The sensitivity and specificity of poor prognosis model were 87.5% and 87.4%, respectively. Independent factors associated with 6-month mortality included：platelet counts at admission, NIHSS score, eGFR, presence of intraventricular hemorrhage ( IVH ), third ventricle Sylvian fissure distance. The sensitivity and specificity of the model for mortality were 90.0% and 94.4%, respectively. Conclusions: Two models for prognostic significance of ICH were developed and could well predict the poor prognosis and mortality.