Fostering rice intensification to reduce imports and land conversion in Africa

AbstractAfrica produces 40% of its rice consumption, relying heavily on rice imports to fulfill the rest of the domestic demand. Over the past 10 years, rice area increased nearly 40%, while average yield remained stagnant. Here we evaluate the room that exists to increase rice production on existing cropland area in Africa and assess cropland expansion and rice imports by year 2050 for different scenarios of yield intensification. We find that Africa can avoid further increases in rice imports, and even reduce them, through a combination of cropland expansion following the historical trend together with closure of the current exploitable yield gap by half or more. Without substantial increase in rice yields, meeting future rice demand will require larger rice imports and/or land conversion than now.