Illicit Cigarette Trade and Tax evasion in Zambia: Findings from the Tobacco Control Data Initiative 2023

Background Illicit cigarette trade has significant economic and public health implications. It leads to governments tax revenue losses due to the evasion of tobacco taxes, and often these cigarettes are cheaper ones therefore increasing cigarette consumption. Objective To estimate the Illicit cigarette trade and tax evasion in Zambia and establish its associated factors Methods and analysis A cross sectional survey was used to collect empty cigarette packs from the retailers and street/bins in 25 districts covering 10 Provinces of Zambia. We used a descriptive analysis to calculate the proportion of illicit cigarette packs and other specific criteria. Logistic regression was used to model the factors associated with the prevalence of the illicit cigarette market in Zambia. Results Of the 118, 344 empty cigarette packs collected (82.0% from the retailers and 18.0% the street/bins), Rothmans accounted for 40.7% and Stuyvesant 13.1%, both manufactured by British American Tobacco. 14,428 (12.2%) were deemed illicit. Out of the total packs, 1792 (1.5%) did not have a textual health warning, 343 (0.3%) packs did not have a textual health warning in english, 1490 (1.3%) had duty-free stamps even though they were purchased from retail outlets that were not duty-free shops and, 11,939 (10.1%) did not have a ZRA stamp. Factors associated with reduced odds of illicit cigarettes sales were non-boarder [AOR 0.17 (CI; 0.13 – 0.23)] and local manufactured AOR 0.44 (CI; 0.37 – 0.53). Conclusions Our study demonstrated that 12.2% of the cigarettes sold on the Zambian market is illicit, with 10.1% evading tax. We found that cigarettes from Lusaka province, urban regions, border towns, and those that are imported had higher odds of being illicit. This finding underscores the fact that Zambia should ratify and implement the WHO Protocol on Illicit Tobacco Trade (ITP) to counter the supply of illicit cigarettes.