Underreporting of SARS-CoV-2 infections during the first wave of the 2020 COVID-19 epidemic in Finland - Bayesian inference based on a series of serological surveys

In Finland, the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) took place from March to June 2020, with the majority of COVID-19 cases diagnosed in the extended capital region. The magnitude and trend in the incidence of COVID-19 is one way to monitor the course of the epidemic. The diagnosed COVID-19 cases are a subset of the infections and therefore the COVID-19 incidence underestimates the SARS-CoV-2 incidence. The likelihood that an individual with SARS-CoV-2 infection is diagnosed with COVID-19 depends on the clinical manifestation as well as the infection testing policy and capacity. These factors may fluctuate over time and the underreporting of infections changes accordingly. Quantifying the extent of underreporting allows the assessment of the true incidence of infection. To obtain information on the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Finland, a series of serological surveys was initiated in April 2020. We develop a Bayesian inference approach and apply it to data from the serological surveys, registered COVID-19 cases, and external data, to estimate the time-dependent underreporting of SARS-Cov-2 infections during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Finland. There were 1 to 5 (95% probability) SARS-CoV-2 infections for every COVID-19 case during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Finland. The underreporting was highest before April when there were 4 to 17 (95% probability) infections for every COVID-19 case. It is likely that between 0.5%–1.0% (50% probability) and no more than 1.5% (95% probability) of the population in the extended capital region were infected with SARS-CoV-2 by the beginning of July 2020.