Land and Climate Suitability for West Nile Virus in Atlantic Archipelagos Guided by Historical Data from Europe

Land and Climate Suitability for West Nile Virus in Atlantic Archipelagos Guided by Historical Data from Europe | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Land and Climate Suitability for West Nile Virus in Atlantic Archipelagos Guided by Historical Data from Europe Martim Afonso Geraldes, Marta Giovanetti, Mónica Vieira Cunha, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6245168/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract West Nile (WNV) is a zoonotic mosquito-borne virus with an expanding geographical range and epidemic activity worldwide. Computational studies have contributed to the understanding of factors driving WNV occurrence, particularly in North America and Europe, providing invaluable insights towards surveillance and preparedness. Archipelagos have largely been overlooked, despite the risks WNV poses to unique local avian species and human populations. In this study, we apply a machine learning-based ecological niche approach, trained on WNV occurrence and (a)biotic factors from Portugal, Spain, and Italy, to estimate ecological suitability for WNV occurrence across several Atlantic archipelagos. The approach gives weight to the temporal dimension, moving beyond conventional spatial suitability estimations, and generating novel insights on seasonality both for Europe and the archipelagos. For Portugal, Spain and Italy, modelling results align with previous findings on spatial hotspots and (a)biotic drivers of WNV occurrence, while further unraveling properties of at-risk human populations within dynamically suitable land areas. For Atlantic archipelagos, results constitute a novel and detailed perspective on local ecological suitability for WNV occurrence, providing a data-driven framework that identifies spatial hotspots, defines seasonal patterns and quantifies the local population at risk. The synthetic data generated in this study supports the development of targeted preparedness, surveillance and mitigation plans tailored to the unique ecological and seasonal dynamics of each region under study. Ecological Modeling West Nile Virus modelling ecology climate machine learning seasonality risk archipelago. Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Supplementary Files WNVPSIARCHIPELAGOSSUPPMATERIALV4.pdf Supplementary Text File Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6245168","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":429952712,"identity":"34128e94-134b-4a7e-8bf9-b232fd54e59f","order_by":0,"name":"Martim Afonso Geraldes","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes (cE3c) \u0026 Global Change and Sustainability Institute (CHANGE), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal; Universidade Católica Portuguesa, Faculdade de Medicina, Biomedical research centre, Oeiras, Portugal","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Martim","middleName":"Afonso","lastName":"Geraldes","suffix":""},{"id":429953758,"identity":"26ebc815-f1ec-46d0-a86d-7516a2c90377","order_by":1,"name":"Marta Giovanetti","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Department of Sciences and Technologies for Sustainable Development and One Health, Università Campus Bio-Medico di Roma, Rome, Italy; 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Computational studies have contributed to the understanding of factors driving WNV occurrence, particularly in North America and Europe, providing invaluable insights towards surveillance and preparedness. Archipelagos have largely\u0026nbsp; been overlooked, despite the risks WNV poses to unique local avian species and human populations. In this study, we apply a machine learning-based ecological niche approach, trained on WNV occurrence and (a)biotic factors\u0026nbsp; from Portugal, Spain, and Italy, to estimate ecological suitability for WNV occurrence across several Atlantic archipelagos. The approach gives weight to the temporal dimension, moving beyond conventional spatial suitability estimations, and generating novel insights on seasonality both for Europe and the archipelagos. 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