Accuracy of gene expression prediction from genotype data with PrediXcan varies across diverse populations

Predicting gene expression with genetic data has garnered significant attention in recent years. PrediXcan is one of the most widely used gene-based association methods for testing imputed gene expression values with a phenotype due to the invaluable insight the method has shown into the relationship between complex traits and the component of gene expression that can be attributed to genetic variation. The prediction models for PrediXcan, however, were obtained using supervised machine learning methods and training data from the Depression and Gene Network (DGN) and the Genotype-Tissue Expression (GTEx) data, where the majority of subjects are of European descent. Many genetic studies, however, include samples from multi-ethnic populations, and in this paper we assess the accuracy of gene expression predictions with PrediXcan in diverse populations. Using transcriptomic data from the GEUVADIS (Genetic European Variation in Health and Disease) RNA sequencing project and whole genome sequencing data from the 1000 Genomes project, we evaluate and compare the predictive performance of PrediXcan in an African population (Yoruban) and four European populations. Prediction results are obtained using a range of models from PrediXcan weight databases, and Pearson’s correlation coefficient is used to measure prediction accuracy. We demonstrate that the predictive performance of PrediXcan varies across populations (F-test p-value < 0.001), where prediction accuracy is the worst in the Yoruban sample compared to European samples. Moreover, the performance of PrediXcan varies not only among distant populations, but also among closely related populations as well. We also find that the qualitative performance of PrediXcan for the populations considered is consistent across all weight databases used.