Economic Ramifications of Chronic Diseases' Burden in Egypt

Abstract Aim:\\ Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are fast replacing contagious diseases accounting for the highest death rates worldwide with a considerable economic impact. The study investigates the four major non-communicable diseases burden on the economic output passing through the demographic variables in Egypt.\\Subjects and Methods:\\This study uses international and national data sources. VARX-L model and VARX-ENET model are applied to detect the granger causalities, estimating variables' response to the predictor shocks, and eventually forecasting the main endogenous variables. \\Results:\\This study results yield that the highest negative impact on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is due to cardiovascular diseases. However, the disease's burden is lessened by the health budget increase. The cardiovascular diseases and diabetes burden impact the labour supply negatively. The crude birth rate negatively affects savings. Furthermore, human capital has a noticeable positive effect on the GDP.\\ Conclusion:\\We propose policies to alleviate the economic burden of chronic diseases, suggesting a rise in the health budget, family planning policies, lowering the inflation and the exchange rate.