Efficient genomic prediction at reduced training size and moderate marker density in an expanded aus-NAM population of rice

Abstract Genomic selection (GS) can accelerate genetic gain in crops, but its effectiveness depends on training population design and marker density. Nested association mapping (NAM) populations provide a structured framework that captures broad allelic diversity within a controlled genetic background. Here, we evaluated genomic prediction (GP) and genome-wide association study (GWAS) performance in an expanded aus-NAM population of rice comprising 1,818 recombinant inbred lines across 14 families and 11 agronomic traits, using genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS) markers and projected whole-genome sequence variants. Prediction accuracy plateaued at moderate marker densities (∼20k SNPs) and with training populations of ∼500 lines (∼40–60% of the available pool), with trait heritability emerging as the strongest determinant of predictive performance rather than model choice or marker density. In contrast, GWAS resolution continued to improve with increasing marker density, enabling detection of additional loci, including a chromosome 12 locus associated with heading date, while consistently recovering well-characterized genes such as EARLY HEADING DATE 1 (Ehd1) and SEMIDWARF 1 (SD1). These contrasting patterns indicate that GP reaches near-optimal performance once genome-wide variation is adequately represented, whereas GWAS benefits from higher marker density through improved locus resolution. The present study establishes a benchmark for implementing breeding programs involving japonica/indica crosses using GP in a single environment. Competing Interest Statement T.P.M. is a co-founder of Cquesta, a company that works on crop root growth and carbon sequestration. The other authors declare that they have no competing interests.