Observation-Based Assessment of Contrail Climate Effects across the Euro-Atlantic Region in 2023

Observation-Based Assessment of Contrail Climate Effects across the Euro-Atlantic Region in 2023 | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Observation-Based Assessment of Contrail Climate Effects across the Euro-Atlantic Region in 2023 Irene Ortiz, Ermioni Dimitropoulou, Pierre de Buyl, Nicolas Clerbaux, and 4 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9370812/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Revision Version 1 posted 10 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Aviation’s climate impact is dominated by non-CO \((_2)\) effects—primarily contrails—yet their magnitude remains poorly constrained due to reliance on model-based estimates. Here, we present a year-long assessment across the Euro–Atlantic region using a novel, observation-based framework that combines geostationary satellite data, neural-network detection, and rapid radiative forcing estimation. We find that contrail occurrence is highly concentrated over the North Atlantic and adjacent coasts ( \((75%)\) of detections), where transatlantic flight corridors intersect the jet stream. This spatial concentration translates into a strong imbalance in climate impact: North Atlantic traffic accounts for only \((\sim6%)\) of flights but contributes \((\sim60%)\) (potentially up to \((85%)\) ) of annual contrail-induced warming in this region. This extreme concentration highlights a high-leverage mitigation opportunity: targeting the most influential subset of flights—particularly transatlantic routes, focusing on nocturnal and late-afternoon operations, with stronger constraints in autumn and winter—could deliver substantial near-term reductions in aviation climate forcing. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences Scientific community and society/Geography Social science/Geography Aviation Contrails Satellite Observations Climate Mitigation Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files supplementary.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Revision Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 12 May, 2026 Reviews received at journal 05 May, 2026 Reviews received at journal 01 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 28 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 27 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 24 Apr, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 23 Apr, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 13 Apr, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 13 Apr, 2026 First submitted to journal 09 Apr, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9370812","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":633674622,"identity":"954812b8-3097-4946-90dc-8f566ebc9971","order_by":0,"name":"Irene 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This spatial concentration translates into a strong imbalance in climate impact: North Atlantic traffic accounts for only \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\((\\sim6%)\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e of flights but contributes \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\((\\sim60%)\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e (potentially up to \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\((85%)\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e) of annual contrail-induced warming in this region. 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