The nexus between money growth and inflation in Turkey: New evidence from a Wavelet Analysis

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This wavelet analysis of Turkish data from 1987-2019 found a dynamic, long-run relationship between money supply and inflation, with inflation leading money supply in the short run, consistent with demand-pull theory.

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The preprint investigates the lead-lag relationship between money growth (money supply) and inflation in Turkey from 1987 to 2019 using wavelet analysis methods including continuous wavelet analysis, cross wavelet transforms, and wavelet coherence with phase-difference. The authors report that the relationship between money supply and inflation is present but has changing patterns over time, consistent with Turkey’s episodes of economic crises. They also find that the lead-lag direction is time-varying and that inflation can lead, which they interpret as compatible with a demand-pull framing, while also claiming consistency with both traditional and modern quantity theory views via short-run and long-run links. A major caveat is that the work is a Research Square preprint that has not been peer reviewed. The paper does not explicitly discuss endometriosis or adenomyosis; it was included in the corpus via a keyword match in the upstream search index.

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Abstract

Abstract The study investigates the lead-lag relationship in Turkey by employing wavelet analysis, mainly continuous wavelet analysis, cross wavelet transforms and wavelet coherence and phase-difference, during the period from 1987 to 2019. Our finding confirms the existing relationship between money supply and inflation, and also showing a different pattern for the structure of the relationship between money supply and inflation; moreover, the result corresponds with the fact that Turkey experienced many economic crises during the period. Additionally, the results show that the lead-lag relationship between money supply and inflation is changeable and the inflation leads as a result of the Demand-pull theory. The result is consistent with the traditional quantity theory of money in the long run, and; also regarding the modern quantity theory of money, there is also short-run and long-run relationship between money supply and inflation.
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The nexus between money growth and inflation in Turkey: New evidence from a Wavelet Analysis | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research The nexus between money growth and inflation in Turkey: New evidence from a Wavelet Analysis Turgut Tursoy, Muhammad Mar’i This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.2.24250/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The study investigates the lead-lag relationship in Turkey by employing wavelet analysis, mainly continuous wavelet analysis, cross wavelet transforms and wavelet coherence and phase-difference, during the period from 1987 to 2019. Our finding confirms the existing relationship between money supply and inflation, and also showing a different pattern for the structure of the relationship between money supply and inflation; moreover, the result corresponds with the fact that Turkey experienced many economic crises during the period. Additionally, the results show that the lead-lag relationship between money supply and inflation is changeable and the inflation leads as a result of the Demand-pull theory. The result is consistent with the traditional quantity theory of money in the long run, and; also regarding the modern quantity theory of money, there is also short-run and long-run relationship between money supply and inflation. International Economics Money supply inflation wavelet analysis Turkey the quantity theory of money Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. 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