Future Changes of Temperature and Precipitation in Java Island Based On NEXGDDP-CMIP6 Models

Future Changes of Temperature and Precipitation in Java Island Based On NEXGDDP-CMIP6 Models | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Future Changes of Temperature and Precipitation in Java Island Based On NEXGDDP-CMIP6 Models Asri Indrawati, Aisya Nafiisyanti, Sany Indra Putra, Amalia Nurlatifah, and 13 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8281527/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 4 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The complex interactions between monsoon circulation, ocean-atmosphere variability, and steep topography over Java require high-resolution climate projections to accurately assess future warming and precipitation changes. This study uses eight downscaled NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 models, evaluated against the SA-OBS dataset for the period 1984–2014, to assess historical performance and quantify projected changes in SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. The models perform well with a rainfall correlation of r = 0.68–0.75 (RMSE 77–84 mm/month) and a temperature correlation of r = 0.40–0.70 (RMSE 1.1–1.3°C), although they exhibit a bias towards the rainy season of +28–35 mm/month and a bias towards warm temperatures of +1–3.5°C. Forward projections indicate warming of +0.8–1.4°C (SSP2-4.5) and +1.5–2.3°C (SSP5-8.5), with the most significant increases in the northern and eastern lowlands. Precipitation changes range from -3% to +7% in SSP2-4.5 and from 0% to +12% in SSP5-8.5, while the DJF season is expected to be wetter by 5–15% and the JJA season is likely to be drier in East Java. Climate change CMIP6 models Rainfall Temperature Projection Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 13 Jan, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 07 Jan, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 06 Dec, 2025 First submitted to journal 04 Dec, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8281527","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":571049137,"identity":"b521e242-bcb6-4c28-b71c-7eddc07883d3","order_by":0,"name":"Asri 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