A quantitative microbial risk assessment of Escherichia coli O157 in sheep meat in Saudi Arabia

A quantitative microbial risk assessment of Escherichia coli O157 in sheep meat in Saudi Arabia | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article A quantitative microbial risk assessment of Escherichia coli O157 in sheep meat in Saudi Arabia Latifah Almasaud, Sarah Alfaifi, Ohoud Almadani, Omar Alhumaidan This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9449338/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Background Escherichia coli O157 is a foodborne pathogen that can be transmitted through contaminated meat, particularly non-intact products such as minced meat. Estimating exposure across the full pathway from contamination to consumption is important for understanding potential risk at the population level. Methods A probabilistic quantitative microbial risk assessment model was developed, integrating contamination during production, changes during storage, and dose–response following consumption. Results Model outputs indicated that initial contamination levels were centered at 3.3 log₁₀ CFU/g. Following storage, concentrations exhibited a bimodal distribution. Cooking reduced concentrations in most simulations, with a residual right tail observed. The median ingested dose was 1.57 log₁₀ CFU/d, with upper values reaching 4.90–5.90 log₁₀ CFU/d. The median probability of illness was 0.001, increasing to 0.004–0.005 at higher percentiles. The modeled annual disease incidence was 116 cases at the median, rising to 416–483 cases at the 95th–97.5th percentiles. Conclusion The modeled results suggest that population-level risk is associated with a subset of high-exposure scenarios observed within the simulation. Variation across storage and cooking conditions is reflected in the distribution of outcomes Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers invited by journal 04 May, 2026 Editor invited by journal 30 Apr, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 24 Apr, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 24 Apr, 2026 First submitted to journal 17 Apr, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9449338","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":624983635,"identity":"660d3e58-a28c-48ad-b726-4183a5c5fa95","order_by":0,"name":"Latifah Almasaud","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Saudi Food and Drug Authority (SFDA)","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Latifah","middleName":"","lastName":"Almasaud","suffix":""},{"id":624983636,"identity":"6a288f8e-3a05-4749-8061-f25f2b28ebf6","order_by":1,"name":"Sarah Alfaifi","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Saudi Food and Drug Authority (SFDA)","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Sarah","middleName":"","lastName":"Alfaifi","suffix":""},{"id":624983639,"identity":"82c9507e-a1d2-4bce-a33f-0d98168d8cd7","order_by":2,"name":"Ohoud Almadani","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Saudi Food and Drug Authority (SFDA)","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ohoud","middleName":"","lastName":"Almadani","suffix":""},{"id":624983641,"identity":"97e6a88f-ddf5-48ae-b2b6-badbd5a28555","order_by":3,"name":"Omar Alhumaidan","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABAUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFACHhAhwdjAwHyAoYKNNC1sCQxnSNDCANTCY0CcFn72s8ekbtRYyPbP7vn84UCZHYO8e48B448a3Foke/LSpHOOSRjPuHN2m8SBc8kMhmfOGDDzHMOtxeBAjpl0DptEYsON3G3MH9uYGQxnpCUwM+BxocH5N0At/yQS59/IefzhYFs9WAvjj394tNwA2pLbJpG44UYOg8TBtsMM8hLJBxh42/D4ZcYbY+vcPgnjjTfSzIB+Oc5jwHP4wGHePtxa+PlzDG/nfKuTnXcj+TEwxKrl5NsbGx/++IZbCwbgMTjAwHCABA1AIN9AmvpRMApGwSgY/gAAO9lUt+tHU4UAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Saudi Food and Drug Authority (SFDA)","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Omar","middleName":"","lastName":"Alhumaidan","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-04-17 12:53:51","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9449338/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9449338/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":107283409,"identity":"3dd57f1b-a4aa-47b4-bc79-e0c81b09f65e","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-20 02:58:11","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":640064,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"AquantitativemicrobialriskassessmentofEscherichiacoliO157insheepmeatinSaudiArabiaV2.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9449338/v1_covered_12964302-4ce4-40de-804b-a5aae0c4a907.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"A quantitative microbial risk assessment of Escherichia coli O157 in sheep meat in Saudi Arabia ","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"discover-food","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"discoverfood","sideBox":"Learn more about [Discover Food](https://www.springer.com/44187)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Discover Food","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Discover Series","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9449338/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9449338/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003ch2\u003eBackground\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eEscherichia coli O157 is a foodborne pathogen that can be transmitted through contaminated meat, particularly non-intact products such as minced meat. Estimating exposure across the full pathway from contamination to consumption is important for understanding potential risk at the population level.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eMethods\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eA probabilistic quantitative microbial risk assessment model was developed, integrating contamination during production, changes during storage, and dose\u0026ndash;response following consumption.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eResults\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eModel outputs indicated that initial contamination levels were centered at 3.3 log₁₀ CFU/g. Following storage, concentrations exhibited a bimodal distribution. Cooking reduced concentrations in most simulations, with a residual right tail observed. The median ingested dose was 1.57 log₁₀ CFU/d, with upper values reaching 4.90\u0026ndash;5.90 log₁₀ CFU/d. The median probability of illness was 0.001, increasing to 0.004\u0026ndash;0.005 at higher percentiles. The modeled annual disease incidence was 116 cases at the median, rising to 416\u0026ndash;483 cases at the 95th\u0026ndash;97.5th percentiles.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eConclusion\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe modeled results suggest that population-level risk is associated with a subset of high-exposure scenarios observed within the simulation. 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