Substantial contribution of avalanches to glacier accumulation in the 21st century

Substantial contribution of avalanches to glacier accumulation in the 21st century | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Substantial contribution of avalanches to glacier accumulation in the 21st century Marin Kneib, Fabien Maussion, Fanny Brun, Guillem Carcanade, Daniel Farinotti, and 7 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7039715/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 26 Nov, 2025 Read the published version in Nature Communications → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Glaciers are often located in steep mountain settings and avalanches from surrounding slopes can strongly influence snow accumulation patterns on their surface. This effect has however never been quantified for more than a few glaciers and the impact on the future evolution of glaciers is unclear. We coupled an avalanche and a glacier model to estimate the contribution of avalanches to the accumulation of all glaciers in the world and how this affects their evolution throughout the 21st century. Globally, 3% of the snow accumulation on glaciers comes from avalanches and 1% is removed by avalanches. This net contribution varies between regions and glaciers, with a maximum of 15% for New Zealand. Accounting for avalanches modifies the altitudinal pattern of glacier mass balance and the projected evolution of individual glaciers. The main effects include (1) a longer persistence of small glaciers, with for example three times more ice retained by glaciers smaller than 1 km2 in Central Europe under a low-emission scenario, and (2) an increased sensitivity of high-elevation accumulation zones to future warming. We anticipate the relative influence of avalanches to increase in the future and advocate for a better monitoring of this process and representation in glacier models. Earth and environmental sciences/Hydrology Earth and environmental sciences/Solid Earth sciences/Geomorphology Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Cryospheric science Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Projection and prediction Earth and environmental sciences/Solid Earth sciences/Hydrogeology Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SIavalanchesglobalvf.pdf Supplementary information for ‘Substantial contribution of avalanches to glacier accumulation in the 21st century’ Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 26 Nov, 2025 Read the published version in Nature Communications → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7039715","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":482069132,"identity":"55775cf0-31b2-40e2-9cae-309278d41d94","order_by":0,"name":"Marin Kneib","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA4ElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYJCCAwwMCQwMzDyMD4AcHj5StDAbgLSwEWlRAlixBIhJUItu+9mHhwsY0vL42XmPVX7NsZNhY2B++OgGHi1mZ9INDs9gyCmWbOZLuy27LRnoMDZj4xx8Wg6kMRzmYahI3HCYx+y25DZmoBYeNmm8Ws4/g2jZD9RSLLmtnggtN8C25CRuYOYxY/y47TAxWkC2GKQlzjjMlyzNuO04DxszIb+cT2P+zFORnNjff/bgx5/bqu352ZsfPsanBQIMIBQzD5gkqBwJMP4gRfUoGAWjYBSMGAAAwSNB5VgdPnQAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2420-0475","institution":"ETH Zürich","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Marin","middleName":"","lastName":"Kneib","suffix":""},{"id":482069133,"identity":"16b904f1-1f2a-4f92-9c55-4141599dfd98","order_by":1,"name":"Fabien Maussion","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3211-506X","institution":"University of Bristol","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Fabien","middleName":"","lastName":"Maussion","suffix":""},{"id":482069134,"identity":"343f5462-5665-4011-bb2c-8535b8d14b73","order_by":2,"name":"Fanny Brun","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6607-0667","institution":"Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Fanny","middleName":"","lastName":"Brun","suffix":""},{"id":482069135,"identity":"fb9ac077-eb5e-46f2-a254-2f9e66d50ec5","order_by":3,"name":"Guillem Carcanade","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"IGE, Université Grenoble-Alpes","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Guillem","middleName":"","lastName":"Carcanade","suffix":""},{"id":482069136,"identity":"2a353dcf-53a8-46e5-8183-5325c10b8bd1","order_by":4,"name":"Daniel Farinotti","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3417-4570","institution":"VAW - 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