Predicting the impacts of land management for sustainable development on depression risk in a Ugandan case study

Agricultural intensification and expanding protected areas are proposed sustainable development approaches. But, their consequences for mental health – a global priority – are poorly understood. We predict how forest conservation and contract farming may alter resource access and depression risk in rural Uganda. We asked 695 residents in 11 communities about their expectations under land management scenarios, household characteristics, and depression symptoms. Over 80% of respondents presented with a ‘business-as-usual forest-access’ scenario expected reduced forest income and food over the next decade. This number climbed to over 90% among respondents presented with a ‘restricted forest access’ scenario. Over 80% said losing forest access would increase food insecurity and poverty among forest-dependent households. Furthermore, over 99% of those presented with two land access scenarios (‘business-as-usual land access’ and ‘sugarcane expansion land access’) expected wealthy households to gain land but poorer families to lose it. This land redistribution was expected to increase poverty and food insecurity among small-scale farmers. Bayesian structural equation suggested that depression severity was positively associated with food insecurity (estimate = 0.20, 95% CI = 0.12-0.28) and economic poverty (estimate = 0.11, 95% CI 0.02-0.19). Conservation and agricultural approaches that restrict access to livelihood resources may threaten vulnerable groups’ mental health.