Impact of eliminating malaria by 2040 on poverty rates among agricultural households in Africa

Background: : Reaching the goal of eradicating malaria by 2040, if achieved, would have a profound effect on farmers’ lives in sub-Saharan Africa. Our objective is to examine how achieving that goal would affect poverty rates of agricultural households. Methods: : We analyzed the potential impact of eliminating malaria by 2040 on poverty rates among agricultural households in malarious regions of sub-Saharan Africa. Our model used ten scenarios to examine how the impact of eliminating malaria by 2040 on households’ income would affect the number of individuals living on less than $1.90 (2011 PPP) per day.  Results: : We analyzed ten scenarios for malaria’s impact on agricultural household income from 2018 to 2040 for the approximately 324 million individuals in agricultural households in malarious regions of sub-Saharan Africa in 2018. We found that approximately 53 million to 123 million individuals would escape poverty by 2040 if malaria were eliminated by that year. If the malaria burden in agricultural households remained at its current level through 2040, only 40 million individuals would escape poverty by 2040, a decrease of only 24%. Therefore, the impact of eliminating malaria by 2040, relative to the status quo scenario through 2040, is that approximately 13 million to 84 million individuals in agricultural households will escape poverty.  Conclusions: : The modeling analysis presented here is meant to be a starting point for additional research into the potential impact of eliminating malaria on the incomes of agricultural households in sub-Saharan Africa. This study could be strengthened with the application of new methods to examine malaria’s impact on the welfare of agricultural households. We recommend the collection and analysis of longitudinal data from agricultural households in future studies of malaria’s impact on these households.