GIS-Based Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) for Flood Hazards and Risks Assessment: A Case Study of the Port City of Montego Bay and the surrounding St. James Parish, Jamaica

Abstract A flood is a hydrological phenomenon of a significant surge in the runoff water that overwhelms and overflows a drain, river, or stream, usually after heavy rainfall, tropical storms, and cyclones. When it occurs, it causes adverse impacts on human life and public health, domestic animals, properties, and croplands. The Caribbean island of Jamaica is located in the geographical area where the current and forecasted hydrological, physical, climatic, and human conditions are set for probable flood hazard occurrences. Therefore, this study aimed at modeling the likelihood of flood hazard occurrences, and risk assessment for Saint James Parish, Jamaica, and its port city of Montego Bay using the Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based analytical hierarchy process of multicriteria analysis. Accordingly, 36% of the study area is assessed to experience a very high and high probability of flood hazard occurrences. On the other hand, 25% of the study area is subjected to risks of high and very high exposure and vulnerability to the hazard. Wetlands are the most adversely impacted land-use and landcover types (i.e., 100%) followed by Built-up areas (i.e., 74%) and agricultural croplands (24%), indicating the unique vulnerability of the area to the hazards, and damages thereof.