Predicting Future Study Success: How A Bayesian Approach can be of Help to Analyze and Interpret Admission Test Scores

The aim of this study was twofold: First, we investigated whether scores on an admission test lead to similar predictions in future study success when administered in a proctored- and an unproctored setting. Second, we explored how Bayesian modeling can be of help to interpret admission-testing data. Results showed that the mode of administration of an admission test did not result in different models for predicting study success and that Bayesian modeling provide a very useful- and easy-to-interpret framework to predict the probability of future study success.