A 50-years flood frequency in Coastal area of Java, Indonesia: Integrating historical hotspot and Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis

Abstract This paper re-examines the facts of the influence of urban development that developed in Java on the occurrence of floods that started from 1970 to 2020. The purpose of this paper is to prove whether development policies in Indonesia in the last 50 years and to analyze the correlation between flood event, population growth, and urbanization on a wider regional scale. The Moran-I Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis method is applied to simulate the spatial pattern of flood events with combined results from satellite image interpretation with Spatial-temporal analysis from the 1970s to the 2020s. In more detail, the results of hotspot clusters show development from "lower-low" dispersion in the 70s to areas with a majority of "higher-high" clustered in 2000-2020. It proves that the burden of development in Java is in high category impact, so solutions for population distribution, land development, and spatial planning are needed to ensure environmental sustainability in Java.