Application of Selected Random Variable Distributions for Forecasting Wind Speed and Electricity Production in Order to Determine the Operation Strategy of Wind Power Plants

This paper presents an outline of the problems facing the Polish energy sector. It high-lights the significant role of wind energy in the National Power System, while limiting the possibility of installing new wind farms. It is suggested that repowering and ex-tending the operational life of wind turbines will be an important solution to this problem. The possibility of using data from existing turbines to inform operational strategies was analyzed. Historical data was obtained for selected wind turbines and statistically analyzed. The main goal of the study was to develop regression models for wind conditions and electricity production. The best fit between the actual distribu-tions of the analyzed variables and selected theoretical distributions was determined. It was demonstrated that in the analyzed case, the Log-Normal distribution provided a better fit than the Weibull distribution, preferred by the energy industry.