Declining global scientific mobility and persistent inequality in an expanding research system

Declining global scientific mobility and persistent inequality in an expanding research system | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Declining global scientific mobility and persistent inequality in an expanding research system Huilin Ge, Clara Calero, Rodrigo Costas This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9587466/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Global scientific mobility is central to the circulation of knowledge, skills and opportunities, but its recent evolution remains unclear. Using the Dimensions database, we reconstruct publication-based career trajectories for more than 20.5 million researchers who began publishing between 2000 and 2024. We show that, despite the rapid expansion of the global research workforce, the propensity for first-time international mobility declined across recent cohorts. Mobility destinations also became more diversified and more regionalized, with East Asia emerging as an important regional hub. However, this diversification did not reduce structural asymmetries. North America and Western Europe continued to record persistent net gains of mobile researchers, whereas South Asia remained the largest net source region. Return patterns also differed across regions, with comparatively higher observed return rates in East Asia, Central Asia & Eastern Europe, and Latin America & the Caribbean. These findings show that global science has expanded without producing more frequent or more equal international circulation of scientific careers. Social science/Sociology Scientific community and society/Social sciences/Sociology scientific mobility bibliometric data brain drain Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files Appendix.pdf Appendix Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9587466","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":635645032,"identity":"8f2a78b7-a899-4818-8c2f-fae89900a2d4","order_by":0,"name":"Huilin Ge","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA/UlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACAxDxAcxkbmBIYAMxGBuAhAVeLYwzGBgkwCqRtEjg1cLMA9PCwAaXwK3FnIH94mObmsN18g2MjQ8elNnkGdxubpNg3IFbi2UDT7FxzrHDEgYHGJsNEs6lFRvcOQjUcgaPww7wpEnnNtyWMGBgbJNIbDucuOFGYrMBkI1PS/pvS6AWoMPafyS2/SdGC/sxZkagFoYDjG0MiW0HQFoaH+DVcpiHWbLn2H/JDYcZmyUSziUnzgRpScSn5Xj7ww8/atL45dubD378UWaX2Hcj/cGBj202OLUAI8UAykAWTcCtAQjYH+CVHgWjYBSMglHAAABB/leAcygkZAAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0008-3966-5727","institution":"Leiden University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Huilin","middleName":"","lastName":"Ge","suffix":""},{"id":635645033,"identity":"cfc16ea1-91b8-4b3e-9daa-873270d6a613","order_by":1,"name":"Clara Calero","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Leiden University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Clara","middleName":"","lastName":"Calero","suffix":""},{"id":635645034,"identity":"69b3d1a2-3400-430d-8e34-f2683e088403","order_by":2,"name":"Rodrigo Costas","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7465-6462","institution":"Centre for Science and Technology Studies (CWTS), Leiden University, The Netherlands","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Rodrigo","middleName":"","lastName":"Costas","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-05-01 15:35:51","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9587466/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9587466/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":108806689,"identity":"f1efb9f8-08d7-43e1-8324-1ea0764f94b3","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-05-08 15:29:15","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1176252,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"Mianmanuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9587466/v1_covered_ddace9c3-75b5-4a0a-8985-773a2836ab91.pdf"},{"id":108685861,"identity":"9348697f-9baa-4295-ab48-e3f617cd6d05","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-05-07 10:01:14","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":469603,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Appendix","description":"","filename":"Appendix.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9587466/v1/31a68b41ab016ae83b9023dc.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Declining global scientific mobility and persistent inequality in an expanding research system","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"scientific mobility, bibliometric data, brain drain","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9587466/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9587466/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Global scientific mobility is central to the circulation of knowledge, skills and opportunities, but its recent evolution remains unclear. Using the Dimensions database, we reconstruct publication-based career trajectories for more than 20.5 million researchers who began publishing between 2000 and 2024. We show that, despite the rapid expansion of the global research workforce, the propensity for first-time international mobility declined across recent cohorts. Mobility destinations also became more diversified and more regionalized, with East Asia emerging as an important regional hub. However, this diversification did not reduce structural asymmetries. North America and Western Europe continued to record persistent net gains of mobile researchers, whereas South Asia remained the largest net source region. Return patterns also differed across regions, with comparatively higher observed return rates in East Asia, Central Asia \u0026 Eastern Europe, and Latin America \u0026 the Caribbean. 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