Widespread habitat loss and redistribution of marine top predators in a changing ocean

Widespread habitat loss and redistribution of marine top predators in a changing ocean | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Widespread habitat loss and redistribution of marine top predators in a changing ocean Camrin Braun, Nerea Lezama-Ochoa, Nima Farchadi, Martin Arostegui, and 13 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-2743690/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The Northwest Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico are among the fastest warming marine ecosystems, a trend that is expected to continue through this century with concomitant changes to large-scale currents and far-reaching implications for ocean dynamics and marine ecosystems. Here we examine the distribution of 12 highly migratory top predator species using predictive models and project expected habitat changes to 2100 using three downscaled climate model outputs. Our models predict widespread losses of suitable habitat for most species, concurrent with substantial northward displacement of core habitats that exceed 500 km. These changes include up to a >70% loss of suitable habitat by area for some commercially- and ecologically-important species. We also identify predicted hotspots of multi-species habitat loss focused offshore of the U.S. Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts. For several species, the predicted changes are already underway, which are likely to have significant impacts on the efficacy of static regulatory frameworks and instruments used to manage highly migratory species. The ongoing and projected effects of climate change highlight the urgent need to adaptively and proactively manage dynamic marine ecosystems. Biological sciences/Ecology/Climate-change ecology Biological sciences/Ecology/Biodiversity Earth and environmental sciences/Ocean sciences/Marine biology Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology/Climate-change ecology species distribution models prediction ecological forecasting spatial ecology Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-2743690","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":187875315,"identity":"e586636b-6827-4bcc-a004-5c9ed8879fa6","order_by":0,"name":"Camrin 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