Determinants of Early Marriage Among Afghan Women: A Multilevel Analysis of the Nationally Representative MICS 2022–23 Data

Determinants of Early Marriage Among Afghan Women: A Multilevel Analysis of the Nationally Representative MICS 2022–23 Data | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Determinants of Early Marriage Among Afghan Women: A Multilevel Analysis of the Nationally Representative MICS 2022–23 Data Mohammed Omar Musa Mohammed This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7391348/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 10 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Background: Early marriage continues to be a significant public health and social issue in Afghanistan, resulting in adverse health, educational, and economic outcomes. Understanding its prevalence and associated factors is essential for developing targeted interventions. This study estimated the prevalence of early marriage among Afghan women aged 15–49 and examined individual- and community-level factors related to the practice. Methods: We analyzed data from 36,701 women aged 15–49 from the 2022–23 Afghanistan Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS). Multilevel logistic regression models accounted for the survey’s complex sampling design and clustering to identify factors associated with marriage before age 18. Results: The prevalence of early marriage was 53.6%, with the highest rates among women aged 20–34 years (56.2–57.6%). Compared to women aged 45–49, those aged 15–19 had the highest odds (AOR = 5.65, 95% CI: 5.05–6.33). Increased odds were also observed among currently married (AOR = 2.87), formerly married (AOR = 3.07), women with only primary education (AOR = 1.29), and those with a history of child death (AOR = 1.97). Protective factors included higher education (AOR = 0.59), being in the richest wealth quintile (AOR = 0.81), and a higher household wealth index (AOR = 0.90). Media exposure, internet use, and place of residence were not statistically significant. Conclusion More than half of Afghan women marry before they turn 18. To reduce early marriage, efforts should target adolescent girls by increasing access to education and tackling socio-economic inequalities. early marriage Afghanistan prevalence socio-economic determinants Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey multilevel logistic regression Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviews received at journal 19 Sep, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 18 Sep, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 17 Sep, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 10 Sep, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 10 Sep, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 10 Sep, 2025 Editor invited by journal 20 Aug, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 18 Aug, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 18 Aug, 2025 First submitted to journal 17 Aug, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7391348","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":512679082,"identity":"f8306f10-2ad1-4afe-8e50-17815ee956df","order_by":0,"name":"Mohammed Omar Musa Mohammed","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA+klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFACHhBxAMyU+AAVkyBai+QMkrVI8xCjRbe99wDTjYo78rrTDh+8bbujTt7gAPPB2zwMdfK4tJidOZfAnHPmmeG222nJ1rlnDhtuOMCWbM3DcNiwAZeWGzkGzLlthxm33c4xk85tO8C44QCPGdCFBxgJabHfdjv/m7RlW539hgP834Ba6uwJaUkE2sImzdjGnAi0hQ2ohTkRp5YzZwwO55w5nAz0i7FlL5Ax8zCbseUcg8PJOLUc7zF8nFNx2Hbb7eSHN37uqLPtO9788MabijpbXFpA4ACcBfYyM4hlgEc9CsAZSqNgFIyCUTCiAQBs9l6BlwKSKgAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mohammed","middleName":"Omar Musa","lastName":"Mohammed","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-08-17 08:53:14","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7391348/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7391348/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":91023726,"identity":"9aa2c177-f9cd-45e6-a553-b5d3694ddc6b","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-10 19:22:42","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":467255,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"RevisedManuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7391348/v1_covered_216a42f0-4bb6-415a-8f78-6f19cddbed3d.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Determinants of Early Marriage Among Afghan Women: A Multilevel Analysis of the Nationally Representative MICS 2022–23 Data","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"bmc-public-health","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"pubh","sideBox":"Learn more about [BMC Public Health](http://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"https://www.editorialmanager.com/pubh/default.aspx","title":"BMC Public Health","twitterHandle":"@BMC_series","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"BMC Series","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"early marriage, Afghanistan, prevalence, socio-economic determinants, Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey, multilevel logistic regression","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7391348/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7391348/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003ch2\u003eBackground:\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eEarly marriage continues to be a significant public health and social issue in Afghanistan, resulting in adverse health, educational, and economic outcomes. Understanding its prevalence and associated factors is essential for developing targeted interventions. This study estimated the prevalence of early marriage among Afghan women aged 15\u0026ndash;49 and examined individual- and community-level factors related to the practice.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eMethods:\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eWe analyzed data from 36,701 women aged 15\u0026ndash;49 from the 2022\u0026ndash;23 Afghanistan Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS). Multilevel logistic regression models accounted for the survey\u0026rsquo;s complex sampling design and clustering to identify factors associated with marriage before age 18.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eResults:\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe prevalence of early marriage was 53.6%, with the highest rates among women aged 20\u0026ndash;34 years (56.2\u0026ndash;57.6%). Compared to women aged 45\u0026ndash;49, those aged 15\u0026ndash;19 had the highest odds (AOR\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;5.65, 95% CI: 5.05\u0026ndash;6.33). Increased odds were also observed among currently married (AOR\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;2.87), formerly married (AOR\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;3.07), women with only primary education (AOR\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;1.29), and those with a history of child death (AOR\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;1.97). Protective factors included higher education (AOR\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;0.59), being in the richest wealth quintile (AOR\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;0.81), and a higher household wealth index (AOR\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;0.90). Media exposure, internet use, and place of residence were not statistically significant.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eConclusion\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eMore than half of Afghan women marry before they turn 18. To reduce early marriage, efforts should target adolescent girls by increasing access to education and tackling socio-economic inequalities.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Determinants of Early Marriage Among Afghan Women: A Multilevel Analysis of the Nationally Representative MICS 2022–23 Data","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-09-10 19:06:36","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7391348/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-09-19T20:49:50+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"184813961603427925506388340784819783688","date":"2025-09-18T13:56:34+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"80876661846542178156313561456290082542","date":"2025-09-17T15:52:05+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"105092351830946536056732811069130686311","date":"2025-09-10T13:59:57+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"294757061557769088994026563425704140053","date":"2025-09-10T13:18:06+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-09-10T10:57:27+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvited","content":"","date":"2025-08-20T10:13:59+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-08-18T23:04:00+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2025-08-18T23:03:02+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"BMC Public Health","date":"2025-08-17T08:42:42+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"bmc-public-health","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"pubh","sideBox":"Learn more about [BMC Public Health](http://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"https://www.editorialmanager.com/pubh/default.aspx","title":"BMC Public Health","twitterHandle":"@BMC_series","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"BMC Series","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"1d9804df-c312-4db1-abb3-84449caa3e9a","owner":[],"postedDate":"September 10th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-09-10T19:06:36+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-09-10 19:06:36","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7391348","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7391348","identity":"rs-7391348","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}