Modelling trends and cycles in U.K. meteorological data

Modelling trends and cycles in U.K. meteorological data | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Modelling trends and cycles in U.K. meteorological data Terence C Mills This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4305546/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This report provides an analysis of the wide range of meteorological data for the U.K. that is now publicly available, focusing on the extraction of trends and cycles from monthly observations on various measures of the U.K.’s weather. A brief outline of the report is as follows. After Section 1’s brief introduction, the meteorological data for the U.K. and its districts are presented in Section 2. Section 3 develops the statistical framework, the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) model, that is used to analyse the various weather measures. Subsequent sections thus analyse temperatures (Section 4), rainfall (Section 5), rain days (Section 6), sunshine hours (Section 7) and frost days (Section 8) using data up to 2022. The measurement of weather volatility is considered in Section 9, while Section 10 focuses on forecasts for the latest available year. 2023. A summary of the various findings are contained in Section 11, from which it is clear that, when attempting to extract the trend and cyclical movements in the weather patterns of the U.K., any analysis must be conducted at the district level, with attention also being focused on seasonal movements. The SUR statistical methodology with flexible Fourier trend-cycle functions proves to be an excellent framework with which to accomplish this. Meteorology Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. 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